Istogu are tipped to win this encounter, with a 57% chance of triumph, 25% for a draw and 18% for Vjosa to edge out the visitors. The model expects 2.7 goals on average, but the most probable total is two, a 25% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12% probability, a tidy draw that reflects the evenly matched sides. Istogu, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 1.55 goals scored and 0.91 conceded, while Vjosa, on the road, manage only 0.6 goals and allow 1.8. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 with 76.7% confidence, and Under 3.5 at 70.9%. The model’s selection also highlights the home win probability, the draw probability and the away win probability, all expressed as percentages. This balanced preview captures the statistical edge Istogu hold, the expected goal output, and the key market picks for the match.
Results analysis
Istogu, after a shaky run that ended in a defeat, pushed forward to secure a decisive 4-1 win over Vjosa, a result that far exceeded the model’s expected total of 2.7 goals. The pre-match favourite was the home side, with a 57% probability, and the model’s call proved correct. The model’s suggested picks also held up: Over 1.5 goals hit with a 76.7% chance, while Under 3.5 missed despite a 70.9% probability. With the final score confirming a home victory, the prediction model’s overall assessment of the match’s outcome and goal volume was spot on.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Istogu win✓ Hit
56.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vjosa win✗ Miss
18.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Istogu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.19
1.52
1.46
1.08
0.93
1.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.80
1.00
2.00
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (21)
1.38
1.48
1.55
0.91
1.20
2.10
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
22% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Vjosa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vjosa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.11
1.78
1.50
1.29
0.69
2.31
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
2.80
1.67
1.67
0.50
4.50
vs Similar (20)
1.05
1.50
1.50
1.20
0.60
1.80
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
26% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Istogu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.7%
Under 1.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.2%
Under 2.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.1%
Under 3.5
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.5%
No
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
1-0
10.7%
2-0
10.6%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.7%
3-0
6.4%
3-1
5.9%
1-2
5.1%
Istogu goals ↓
Vjosa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
5.0%
2.8%
0.9%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
5.1%
1.6%
0.4%
2
11%
9.8%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
3
6.4%
5.9%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.9%
2.6%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Istogu goals (down), columns = Vjosa goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vushtrria
2.21
Feronikeli
2.18
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Rilindja 1974
0.94
Istogu
0.94
KEK-u
0.64
Prizreni
0.59
Istogu is 0.09 points worse than Vjosa in terms of average points per game (0.94 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Vushtrria
1.82
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Suhareka
1.76
Liria Prizren
1.76
Feronikeli
1.74
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Vjosa
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Prizreni
0.82
KEK-u
0.76
Kika
0.74
Istogu is 0.24 goals better than Vjosa in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Feronikeli
0.65
Vushtrria
0.76
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Liria Prizren
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Suhareka
1.79
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Vjosa
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
KEK-u
1.91
Prizreni
1.94
Istogu is 0.03 goals better than Vjosa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.76 vs 1.79).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Istogu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.32
0.73
0.55
0.36
0.09
1.09
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (17)
0.35
0.65
0.56
0.22
0.12
1.12
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
55% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Vjosa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vjosa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.59
0.59
0.69
0.62
0.44
0.56
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.50
0.00
1.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.38
0.90
0.50
0.33
0.17
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
59% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Istogu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Istogu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vjosa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vjosa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vjosa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Istogu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.59
0.73
0.82
0.55
0.36
0.91
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.71
0.89
0.44
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
41% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Vjosa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vjosa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.64
1.00
0.92
0.69
0.22
1.44
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.75
2.50
0.50
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.75
0.60
0.70
0.17
0.83
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
45% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Istogu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Istogu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vjosa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vjosa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vjosa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →