PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Istogu vs Vjosa Result & Analysis

Date: 11/04/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 4-1
Istogu
Istogu
Vs
57%
25%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Vjosa
Vjosa
Kosovo: Liga E Pare
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Istogu are tipped to win this encounter, with a 57% chance of triumph, 25% for a draw and 18% for Vjosa to edge out the visitors. The model expects 2.7 goals on average, but the most probable total is two, a 25% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12% probability, a tidy draw that reflects the evenly matched sides. Istogu, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 1.55 goals scored and 0.91 conceded, while Vjosa, on the road, manage only 0.6 goals and allow 1.8. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 with 76.7% confidence, and Under 3.5 at 70.9%. The model’s selection also highlights the home win probability, the draw probability and the away win probability, all expressed as percentages. This balanced preview captures the statistical edge Istogu hold, the expected goal output, and the key market picks for the match.

Results analysis

Istogu, after a shaky run that ended in a defeat, pushed forward to secure a decisive 4-1 win over Vjosa, a result that far exceeded the model’s expected total of 2.7 goals. The pre-match favourite was the home side, with a 57% probability, and the model’s call proved correct. The model’s suggested picks also held up: Over 1.5 goals hit with a 76.7% chance, while Under 3.5 missed despite a 70.9% probability. With the final score confirming a home victory, the prediction model’s overall assessment of the match’s outcome and goal volume was spot on.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Istogu win✓ Hit
56.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vjosa win✗ Miss
18.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

IstoguIstogu

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L12L23L03L11D31W01L00D22D43WH·TRE22/11A·RAM07/02H·VËL15/02A·FC 22/02H·KIK28/02A·SUH08/03H·DIN14/03A·RIL22/03H·LIR28/03A·TEF04/04
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.191.521.461.080.931.93
vs Stronger (5)0.601.801.002.000.331.67
vs Similar (21)1.381.481.550.911.202.10
vs Weaker (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %22% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Vjosa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VjosaVjosa

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-332W12L20W03L21W31W10W11D13L22DH·SUH22/11A·DIN08/02H·RIL15/02A·LIR22/02H·TEF01/03H·TRE08/03A·KEK14/03H·VUS22/03A·FER29/03H·2 K05/04
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.111.781.501.290.692.31
vs Stronger (5)1.202.801.671.670.504.50
vs Similar (20)1.051.501.501.200.601.80
vs Weaker (2)1.502.001.001.002.003.00
Clean sheet %26% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Istogu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%016%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.7%
Under 1.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.2%
Under 2.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.1%
Under 3.5
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.5%
No
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
1-0
10.7%
2-0
10.6%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.7%
3-0
6.4%
3-1
5.9%
1-2
5.1%
Istogu goals ↓
Vjosa goals →
01234
07.7%5.0%2.8%0.9%0.2%
111%12%5.1%1.6%0.4%
211%9.8%4.5%1.4%0.3%
36.4%5.9%2.7%0.8%0.2%
42.9%2.6%1.2%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Istogu goals (down), columns = Vjosa goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Vushtrria
2.21
Feronikeli
2.18
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Rilindja 1974
0.94
Istogu
0.94
KEK-u
0.64
Prizreni
0.59
Istogu is 0.09 points worse than Vjosa in terms of average points per game (0.94 vs 1.03).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Vushtrria
1.82
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Suhareka
1.76
Liria Prizren
1.76
Feronikeli
1.74
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Vjosa
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Prizreni
0.82
KEK-u
0.76
Kika
0.74
Istogu is 0.24 goals better than Vjosa in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.15).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Feronikeli
0.65
Vushtrria
0.76
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Liria Prizren
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Suhareka
1.79
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Vjosa
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
KEK-u
1.91
Prizreni
1.94
Istogu is 0.03 goals better than Vjosa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.76 vs 1.79).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

IstoguIstogu

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L10W01L02L12L01L10W00D00DA·2 K02/11A·TRE08/11H·PRI15/11H·TRE22/11A·RAM07/02H·VËL15/02A·FC 22/02H·KIK28/02H·DIN14/03A·RIL22/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.320.730.550.360.091.09
vs Stronger (4)0.251.250.501.000.001.50
vs Similar (17)0.350.650.560.220.121.12
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %55% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Vjosa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VjosaVjosa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D21W11D10W00D11D00D10W00D11DH·KIK16/11H·SUH22/11A·DIN08/02H·RIL15/02A·LIR22/02H·TEF01/03H·TRE08/03A·KEK14/03H·VUS22/03H·2 K05/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.590.590.690.620.440.56
vs Stronger (4)0.251.500.001.500.501.50
vs Similar (16)0.690.380.900.500.330.17
vs Weaker (2)0.500.500.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %59% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Istogu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Istogu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vjosa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vjosa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vjosa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

IstoguIstogu

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D00D22D10W11D02L01L01L00DA·2 K02/11A·TRE08/11H·PRI15/11H·TRE22/11A·RAM07/02H·VËL15/02A·FC 22/02H·KIK28/02H·DIN14/03A·RIL22/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.590.730.820.550.360.91
vs Stronger (4)0.250.750.501.000.000.50
vs Similar (17)0.710.710.890.440.501.00
vs Weaker (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %41% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Vjosa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VjosaVjosa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D01L10W03L10W31W00D11D11DH·KIK16/11H·SUH22/11A·DIN08/02H·RIL15/02A·LIR22/02H·TEF01/03H·TRE08/03A·KEK14/03H·VUS22/03H·2 K05/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.641.000.920.690.221.44
vs Stronger (4)1.251.752.500.500.003.00
vs Similar (16)0.440.750.600.700.170.83
vs Weaker (2)1.001.501.001.001.002.00
Clean sheet %45% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Istogu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Istogu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vjosa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vjosa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vjosa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.570.9%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FER (14)
€3m
VUS (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FER (7)
€1m
VUS (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FER (2)
€0m
VUS (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FER (5)
€1m
VUS (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
IST wins
1
Draws
0
VJO wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Istogu vs Vjosa · H/A from IST
DateH/AGameScore
11/10/25AVjosa Vs IST1-1

IstoguIstogu

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/04/26ATefik Canga Vs IST3-4
28/03/26HIST Vs Liria Prizren2-2
22/03/26ARilindja 1974 Vs IST0-0
14/03/26HIST Vs Dinamo Ferizaj0-1
08/03/26ASuhareka Vs IST1-3
28/02/26HIST Vs Kika1-1
22/02/26AFC Besa Peja Vs IST3-0
15/02/26HIST Vs Vëllaznimi2-3
07/02/26ARamiz Sadiku Vs IST2-1
22/11/25HIST Vs Trepça Mitrovicë2-3

VjosaVjosa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/04/26HVJO Vs 2 Korriku2-2
29/03/26AFeronikeli Vs VJO3-1
22/03/26HVJO Vs Vushtrria1-1
14/03/26AKEK-u Vs VJO0-1
08/03/26HVJO Vs Trepça'893-1
01/03/26HVJO Vs Tefik Canga2-1
22/02/26ALiria Prizren Vs VJO3-0
15/02/26HVJO Vs Rilindja 19742-0
08/02/26ADinamo Ferizaj Vs VJO2-1
22/11/25HVJO Vs Suhareka3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Istogu
Istogu
Kosovo: Liga E Pare
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDDW1.00
HomeLLDLD1.31
AwayLLWDW0.71
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%31%14%
AVG goals2.702.542.86
Over 1.5 %70%54%86%
Over 2.5 %44%38%50%
Over 3.5 %33%38%29%
Scored1.191.460.93
Conceded1.521.081.93
BTTS52%46%57%
Clean Sheet22%38%7%
Corners---
Cards---
Vjosa
Vjosa
Kosovo: Liga E Pare
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDLD1.04
HomeWWWDD1.43
AwayDLLWL0.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%36%15%
AVG goals2.892.793.00
Over 1.5 %74%86%62%
Over 2.5 %59%57%62%
Over 3.5 %37%29%46%
Scored1.111.500.69
Conceded1.781.292.31
BTTS56%64%46%
Clean Sheet26%21%31%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1VushtrriaVushtrria3475
65%
2.2
6226+36
2.6
74%
50%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.8
-
2FeronikeliFeronikeli3474
65%
2.2
5922+37
2.4
71%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.70.6
-
3Liria PrizrenLiria Prizren3471
62%
2.1
6029+31
2.6
65%
50%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.9
-
4Dinamo FerizajDinamo Ferizaj3471
65%
2.1
6139+22
2.9
74%
53%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.1
-
5TrepçaTrepça'893470
59%
2.1
7233+39
3.1
82%
47%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.0
-
6VëllaznimiVëllaznimi3470
62%
2.1
5832+26
2.6
71%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.9
-
7Ramiz SadikuRamiz Sadiku3450
41%
1.5
3929+10
2.0
59%
32%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
8SuharekaSuhareka3444
38%
1.3
6061-1
3.6
82%
68%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Tefik CangaTefik Canga3440
35%
1.2
4854-6
3.0
79%
56%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
102 Korriku2 Korriku3439
32%
1.1
5264-12
3.4
91%
68%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.9
-
11FC Besa PejaFC Besa Peja3335
27%
1.1
3952-13
2.8
70%
52%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
12VjosaVjosa3435
26%
1.0
3961-22
2.9
76%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
13Trepça MitrovicëTrepça Mitrovicë3434
26%
1.0
4962-13
3.3
85%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
14KikaKika3433
26%
1.0
2543-18
2.0
59%
29%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.3
-
15IstoguIstogu3432
21%
0.9
4760-13
3.1
74%
50%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
16Rilindja 1974Rilindja 19743432
24%
0.9
3461-27
2.8
82%
50%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
17KEK-uKEK-u3321
12%
0.6
2563-38
2.7
79%
52%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.9
-
18PrizreniPrizreni3420
9%
0.6
2866-38
2.8
79%
53%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.9
-
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →

← all matches