Dinamo Zagreb are the clear favourite, their model rating of 65 % for an away win reflecting a dominant 2.89 goals scored per game and only 0.44 conceded on the road against weaker opposition. Istra 1961, returning from a 2-3 loss to Rijeka, struggle at home, averaging 0.8 scored and 1.6 conceded against stronger teams. The model therefore picks an away win as the most likely result. The expected total goals sit at 3.1, with the single most likely scoreline 0-2 for Dinamo, a 10.8 % chance. Home win probability is 14 %, draw 21 %, away win 65 %. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.2 %), Home under 3.5 goals (98.9 %), Under 7.5 (98.5 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.0 % with a 5 % edge), Away +2 handicap (96.2 %), Under 6.5 (96.0 % with a 6 % edge), Home under 2.5 goals (94.5 % with a 5 % edge), and Home under 1.5 HT goals (94.3 % with a 4 % edge).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Dinamo Zagreb, failed to deliver as the match finished 2-2, a draw that left the model’s pick incorrect. Istra 1961’s recent form note that they were coming off a draw, and Dinamo Zagreb also entered the game after a 2-2 tie, yet neither side could secure victory. The model’s selection of an away win at 68% probability was wrong. Every suggested pick is addressed: Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.1%; Home under 3.5 goals hit at 98.8%; Under 7.5 hit at 98.6%; Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.0%; Under 6.5 hit at 96.1%; Away +2 handicap hit at 96.0%; Home under 2.5 goals hit at 94.3%; Home under 1.5 HT goals missed at 94.1%. The final score of 2-2 confirmed the draw, contradicting the model’s expectation of a Dinamo win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Istra 1961 win✗ Miss
12.1%
Avg Implied 15.2% · @ 6.03
Edge
-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
6.50
Dafabet
6.40
Marathonbet
6.35
Betano
6.30
1xBet
6.29
Draw✓ Hit
20.1%
Avg Implied 20.8% · @ 4.40
Edge
-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.66
Dafabet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.60
Betano
4.60
1xBet
4.60
Dinamo Zagreb win✗ Miss
67.8%
Avg Implied 64.0% · @ 1.43
Edge
+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Dafabet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
1xBet
1.45
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Istra 1961
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.47
1.20
1.40
1.40
1.53
vs Stronger (10)
1.20
1.80
0.80
1.60
1.60
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.35
1.30
1.40
1.30
1.30
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Zagreb) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Zagreb
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.80
0.93
3.00
1.00
2.54
0.85
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.80
1.50
2.20
1.60
1.40
1.40
vs Weaker (20)
3.30
0.65
3.33
0.75
3.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Istra 1961) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.5%
@ 1.15+2.1%
Under 1.5
17.5%
@ 4.75-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.18
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Under
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
Pinnacle
4.78
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.1%
@ 1.53-0.5%
Under 2.5
39.9%
@ 2.35+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.60
Pinnacle
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.54
Under
Pinnacle
2.41
Betfair
2.40
Marathonbet
2.38
1xBet
2.38
Betano
2.37
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.7%
@ 2.35-2.1%
Under 3.5
62.3%
@ 1.55+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.45
Pinnacle
2.44
10Bet
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Betano
2.35
Under
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
BetVictor
1.54
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.6%
@ 1.67-2.6%
No
47.4%
@ 2.06+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.75
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.71
William Hil
1.70
Bet365
1.67
No
1xBet
2.14
Marathonbet
2.11
Bet365
2.10
BetVictor
2.10
William Hil
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.3%@ 7.16+5.1%
1-2
9.7%@ 7.19+3.6%
1-1
9.5%@ 8.03+4.1%
0-1
9.2%@ 7.56+3.4%
0-3
8.4%@ 9.66+3.9%
1-3
7.3%@ 9.51+2.7%
0-0
5.3%@ 13.71+2.1%
0-4
4.7%@ 16.28+2.0%
Istra 1961 goals ↓
Dinamo Zagreb goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
9.2%
11%
8.4%
4.7%
1
3.0%
9.5%
9.7%
7.3%
4.1%
2
1.7%
3.7%
4.2%
3.1%
1.8%
3
0.5%
1.1%
1.2%
0.9%
0.5%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Istra 1961 goals (down), columns = Dinamo Zagreb goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.39
HNK Hajduk Split
1.89
NK Varazdin
1.50
HNK Rijeka
1.47
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.22
Istra 1961
1.19
NK Slaven Belupo
1.14
HNK Gorica
1.14
Rudes
1.11
NK Osijek
0.97
Istra 1961 is 1.19 points worse than Dinamo Zagreb in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 2.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.58
HNK Hajduk Split
1.69
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Varazdin
1.31
NK Slaven Belupo
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.11
HNK Gorica
1.11
Istra 1961
1.08
Rudes
1.08
NK Osijek
0.75
Istra 1961 is 1.50 goals worse than Dinamo Zagreb in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 2.58).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Zagreb
0.78
HNK Hajduk Split
1.00
HNK Rijeka
1.00
NK Varazdin
1.28
HNK Gorica
1.33
NK Osijek
1.36
Istra 1961
1.39
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.44
Rudes
1.65
NK Slaven Belupo
1.69
Istra 1961 is 0.61 goals worse than Dinamo Zagreb in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 0.78).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
HNK Hajduk Split
58%
Dinamo Zagreb
58%
HNK Rijeka
52%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
50%
Istra 1961
50%
NK Osijek
49%
NK Slaven Belupo
49%
HNK Gorica
46%
NK Varazdin
44%
Istra 1961 is 8.1 percentage points worse than Dinamo Zagreb in terms of average possession (50% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Istra 1961
For 4.8 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 11.9 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dinamo Zagreb
For 6.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 11.8 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Istra 1961
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.6
9.3
4.1
3.9
4.3
23.4
23.2
23.7
vs Stronger (17)
10.2
10.4
10.1
3.9
4.1
3.7
24.9
25.8
24.1
vs Similar (33)
9.1
9.3
8.8
4.2
3.8
4.7
22.7
22.1
23.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
47%
46%
48%
64%
58%
71%
61%
50%
74%
% under line
53%
54%
52%
36%
42%
29%
39%
50%
26%
This opponent (Dinamo Zagreb) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Zagreb
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.3
9.9
3.6
3.7
3.5
23.2
22.7
23.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
9.9
9.6
10.2
4.3
5.3
3.1
23.8
23.7
24.0
vs Weaker (31)
9.3
9.1
9.6
3.2
2.8
3.7
22.9
22.1
23.9
% over line
48%
50%
45%
42%
41%
43%
58%
62%
55%
% under line
52%
50%
55%
58%
59%
57%
42%
38%
45%
This opponent (Istra 1961) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
NK Osijek
9.9
Rudes
9.8
Dinamo Zagreb
9.6
Istra 1961
9.4
HNK Rijeka
9.4
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
9.2
NK Varazdin
9.2
HNK Hajduk Split
9.2
HNK Gorica
8.9
NK Slaven Belupo
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NK Osijek
4.8
NK Varazdin
4.7
HNK Rijeka
4.6
HNK Hajduk Split
4.5
Istra 1961
4.4
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
4.4
Dinamo Zagreb
4.3
HNK Gorica
4.2
NK Slaven Belupo
4.1
Rudes
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
HNK Hajduk Split
27.6
NK Osijek
26.8
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
26.5
HNK Rijeka
25.7
HNK Gorica
25.4
Rudes
25.3
NK Slaven Belupo
24.9
NK Varazdin
24.8
Istra 1961
23.3
Dinamo Zagreb
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
48.8%
@ 1.82-2.3%
Under 9.5
51.2%
@ 1.90+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathonbet
1.84
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Under
Superbet
1.95
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
10Bet
1.90
1xBet
1.89
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
59.1%
Under 3.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
72.8%
Under 21.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Istra 1961 or Draw✓ Hit
32.2%
Avg Implied 36.1% · @ 2.56
Edge
-4.0%
12%
20%
68%
covers Istra 1961 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.85
Betfair
2.75
BetVictor
2.63
1xBet
2.61
Marathonbet
2.61
Istra 1961 or Dinamo Zagreb✗ Miss
79.9%
Avg Implied 79.6% · @ 1.16
Edge
+0.3%
12%
20%
68%
covers Istra 1961 + Dinamo Zagreb
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Draw or Dinamo Zagreb✓ Hit
87.9%
Avg Implied 84.3% · @ 1.10
Edge
+3.6%
12%
20%
68%
covers Draw + Dinamo Zagreb
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.13
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Istra 1961 over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
57.8%
@ 1.52-3.1%
Under
42.2%
@ 2.37+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Pinnacle
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Under
Pinnacle
2.45
1xBet
2.43
Marathonbet
2.43
BetVictor
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Istra 1961 over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
21.4%
@ 3.54-4.9%
Under
78.6%
@ 1.26+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
Betano
3.55
Superbet
3.50
Under
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Istra 1961 over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.7%
@ 9.19-4.4%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.04+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
9.10
Marathonbet
8.70
1xBet
8.60
Under
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Istra 1961 over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 22.83-3.1%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
27.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
89.4%
@ 1.07+2.4%
Under
10.6%
@ 7.20-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Under
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
7.30
Superbet
6.70
Betano
6.50
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
65.7%
@ 1.43+1.0%
Under
34.3%
@ 2.62-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.46
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.75
1xBet
2.66
Marathonbet
2.66
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.62
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
39.0%
@ 2.42+0.4%
Under
61.0%
@ 1.52-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.56
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
BetVictor
2.40
Superbet
2.37
Under
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
1xBet
1.54
Superbet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
19.0%
@ 4.39-2.2%
Under
81.0%
@ 1.18+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
Superbet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Betano
4.25
Under
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Istra 1961, so a minus line means Istra 1961 give that many goals of a start and Dinamo Zagreb receive them. At -1, Istra 1961 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Istra 1961 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Istra 1961)Actual: Dinamo Zagreb
Istra 1961 -2
0.9%
@ 34.00-1.9%
Draw -2
3.0%
@ 19.00-2.0%
Dinamo Zagreb +2
96.0%
@ 1.03+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
34.00
Draw
Bet365
19.00
Away
Bet365
1.03
Handicap -1 (Istra 1961)Actual: Dinamo Zagreb
Istra 1961 -1
4.0%
@ 11.40-3.8%
Draw -1
8.1%
@ 6.83-4.8%
Dinamo Zagreb +1
87.9%
@ 1.11+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Marathonbet
7.20
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Superbet
7.40
Marathonbet
4.60
Away
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Handicap +1 (Istra 1961)Actual: Istra 1961
Istra 1961 +1
32.2%
@ 2.57-1.9%
Draw +1
22.6%
@ 3.56-2.0%
Dinamo Zagreb -1
45.3%
@ 2.12+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.75
Marathonbet
2.61
Superbet
2.60
Bet365
2.50
Unibet
2.40
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
Unibet
3.00
Away
Bet365
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.16
Betfair
2.10
Unibet
1.95
Handicap +2 (Istra 1961)Actual: Istra 1961
Istra 1961 +2
54.7%
@ 1.61+0.1%
Draw +2
20.5%
@ 4.12-0.8%
Dinamo Zagreb -2
24.7%
@ 3.66+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.64
Betfair
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.62
Unibet
1.53
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.30
Superbet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Unibet
3.40
Away
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.58
Unibet
3.20
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Istra 1961
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.87
0.73
0.87
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
0.80
0.60
0.80
1.00
0.80
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.90
0.80
0.90
0.60
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Zagreb) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Zagreb
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.47
1.12
0.59
1.23
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.20
0.70
1.40
1.00
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (20)
1.15
0.35
1.00
0.42
1.38
0.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Istra 1961) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.8%
@ 1.24+2.5%
Under 0.5
23.2%
@ 3.59-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Under
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.60
William Hil
3.60
Marathonbet
3.60
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
39.0%
@ 2.21-2.9%
Under 1.5
61.0%
@ 1.60+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.35
Pinnacle
2.30
Betfair
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Superbet
2.20
Under
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.63
William Hil
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
15.2%
@ 4.85-3.9%
Under 2.5
84.8%
@ 1.15+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.00
Betano
4.85
William Hil
4.80
Superbet
4.70
Under
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Istra 1961 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
31.6%
@ 2.61-3.9%
Under
68.4%
@ 1.43+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.80
Betano
2.72
Superbet
2.65
1xBet
2.50
Unibet
2.50
Under
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
Superbet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.43
Betano
1.42
Istra 1961 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
5.9%
@ 9.28-4.1%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.03+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.60
Marathonbet
9.50
Superbet
9.50
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Istra 1961 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
@ 40.00-99.1%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
64.8%
@ 1.49+2.6%
Under
35.2%
@ 2.45-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.49
Unibet
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.61
Superbet
2.45
Betano
2.40
1xBet
2.40
Unibet
2.38
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
25.6%
@ 3.31-2.3%
Under
74.4%
@ 1.28+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.40
Marathonbet
3.30
1xBet
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Under
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.3%
@ 8.47-3.6%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.04+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.30
Superbet
8.20
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Istra 1961
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.47
0.53
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
1.00
0.20
0.80
0.60
1.20
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.40
0.60
0.40
0.70
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Zagreb) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Zagreb
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.47
1.88
0.41
1.31
0.54
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.80
0.80
0.60
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
2.15
0.30
2.33
0.33
1.88
0.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Istra 1961) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.9%
@ 1.15+1.2%
Under 0.5
18.1%
@ 4.82-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.12
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betano
4.90
1xBet
4.85
Marathonbet
4.85
Superbet
4.70
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
50.1%
@ 1.75-2.9%
Under 1.5
49.9%
@ 1.97+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.77
William Hil
1.75
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Under
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
Superbet
1.95
Unibet
1.92
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
24.7%
@ 3.29-3.3%
Under 2.5
75.3%
@ 1.28+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.50
William Hil
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Betano
3.20
Marathonbet
3.16
Under
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Istra 1961 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
37.1%
@ 2.18-5.5%
Under
62.9%
@ 1.61+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.22
Superbet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.15
1xBet
2.14
Under
1xBet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Superbet
1.60
Istra 1961 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.8%
@ 6.97-3.5%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.07+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.20
1xBet
7.10
Superbet
7.00
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Istra 1961 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 18.75-3.1%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
25.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
69.8%
@ 1.34+0.5%
Under
30.2%
@ 3.03-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Betano
1.33
Under
Betano
3.15
1xBet
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
36.3%
@ 2.53-0.4%
Under
63.7%
@ 1.47+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.60
1xBet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.52
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.46
1xBet
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.0%
@ 5.83-3.8%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.10+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.20
Superbet
6.00
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
96.0%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
94.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.02
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
94.1%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
+4.1%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 HT goals
92.7%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
90.5%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.07
Superbet
1.06
BetVictor
1.05
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
90.2%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
89.4%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.05
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
88.0%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
87.9%
1.10
BetVictor
1.13
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
87.9%
1.11
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
+8.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.8%
1.15
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
+3.9%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
82.5%
1.15
Pinnacle
1.18
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.9%
1.15
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.12
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
81.0%
1.18
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
79.9%
1.16
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
+0.3%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
79.6%
1.21
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
78.6%
1.26
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
+4.9%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.8%
1.24
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.3%
1.28
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.4%
1.32
Superbet
1.40
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
-
+4.9%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
74.4%
1.28
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Istra 1961
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emil Frederiksen75%
Hamza Jaganjac50%
Dukan Ahmeti50%
Advan Kadušić0%
Samuli Miettinen0%
Franko Kolić0%
Ivan Šaranić0%
Vinko Rozić0%
Mohamed Nasraoui0%
Antonio Maurić0%
Daouda Doumbia0%
Rene Hrvatin0%
Gustavo Albarracín0%
Niko Šepić0%
Nik Škafar Žužić0%
Matija Kablar0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Hamza Jaganjac50%
Samuli Miettinen33%
Daouda Doumbia25%
Emil Frederiksen0%
Advan Kadušić0%
Franko Kolić0%
Ivan Šaranić0%
Vinko Rozić0%
Mohamed Nasraoui0%
Antonio Maurić0%
Rene Hrvatin0%
Gustavo Albarracín0%
Dukan Ahmeti0%
Niko Šepić0%
Nik Škafar Žužić0%
Matija Kablar0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dukan Ahmeti50%
Emil Frederiksen25%
Hamza Jaganjac25%
Nik Škafar Žužić25%
Advan Kadušić0%
Samuli Miettinen0%
Franko Kolić0%
Ivan Šaranić0%
Vinko Rozić0%
Mohamed Nasraoui0%
Antonio Maurić0%
Daouda Doumbia0%
Rene Hrvatin0%
Gustavo Albarracín0%
Niko Šepić0%
Matija Kablar0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Emil Frederiksen50%
Ivan Šaranić25%
Hamza Jaganjac25%
Nik Škafar Žužić25%
Advan Kadušić0%
Samuli Miettinen0%
Franko Kolić0%
Vinko Rozić0%
Mohamed Nasraoui0%
Antonio Maurić0%
Daouda Doumbia0%
Rene Hrvatin0%
Gustavo Albarracín0%
Dukan Ahmeti0%
Niko Šepić0%
Matija Kablar0%
Dinamo Zagreb
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dion Drena Beljo71%
Smail Prevljak33%
Arber Hoxha29%
Lukas Kačavenda29%
Moris Valinčić20%
Mateo Lisica14%
Robert Mudražija0%
Mislav Oršić0%
Miha Zajc0%
Josip Mišić0%
Stjepan Radeljić0%
Bruno Goda0%
Ivan Nevistić0%
Scott McKenna0%
Niko Galešić0%
Paul Bismarck Tabinas0%
Luka Stojković0%
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf0%
Fran Topić0%
Sergi Domínguez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Scott McKenna50%
Miha Zajc40%
Bruno Goda33%
Luka Stojković25%
Mislav Oršić20%
Moris Valinčić20%
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf20%
Fran Topić20%
Sergi Domínguez20%
Josip Mišić14%
Arber Hoxha14%
Lukas Kačavenda14%
Smail Prevljak0%
Robert Mudražija0%
Stjepan Radeljić0%
Ivan Nevistić0%
Dion Drena Beljo0%
Niko Galešić0%
Mateo Lisica0%
Paul Bismarck Tabinas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf40%
Robert Mudražija33%
Dion Drena Beljo29%
Luka Stojković25%
Stjepan Radeljić20%
Moris Valinčić20%
Fran Topić20%
Josip Mišić14%
Smail Prevljak0%
Mislav Oršić0%
Miha Zajc0%
Bruno Goda0%
Ivan Nevistić0%
Scott McKenna0%
Arber Hoxha0%
Niko Galešić0%
Mateo Lisica0%
Paul Bismarck Tabinas0%
Lukas Kačavenda0%
Sergi Domínguez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dion Drena Beljo57%
Smail Prevljak33%
Arber Hoxha29%
Luka Stojković25%
Miha Zajc20%
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf20%
Fran Topić20%
Robert Mudražija0%
Mislav Oršić0%
Josip Mišić0%
Stjepan Radeljić0%
Bruno Goda0%
Ivan Nevistić0%
Scott McKenna0%
Niko Galešić0%
Mateo Lisica0%
Moris Valinčić0%
Paul Bismarck Tabinas0%
Lukas Kačavenda0%
Sergi Domínguez0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (34)
€66m
HR (32)
€34m
HHS (29)
€34m
NO (33)
€15m
NV (27)
€11m
I1 (23)
€11m
NLZ (34)
€10m
HG (27)
€9m
NSB (31)
€8m
RUD (27)
€5m
Istra 1961's squad is €54m less valuable than Dinamo Zagreb's (€11m vs €66m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (15)
€33m
HR (15)
€21m
HHS (10)
€15m
NO (16)
€9m
NV (9)
€6m
I1 (10)
€4m
HG (10)
€4m
NSB (10)
€3m
NLZ (8)
€3m
RUD (13)
€3m
Istra 1961's attack is €29m less valuable than Dinamo Zagreb's (€4m vs €33m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HHS (6)
€8m
HR (3)
€5m
NLZ (8)
€3m
I1 (4)
€2m
DZ (2)
€2m
HG (6)
€2m
NSB (6)
€2m
NO (4)
€1m
NV (4)
€1m
RUD (4)
€1m
Istra 1961 and Dinamo Zagreb have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (17)
€30m
HHS (13)
€11m
HR (14)
€8m
NV (14)
€5m
I1 (9)
€5m
NO (13)
€4m
NLZ (18)
€4m
NSB (15)
€3m
HG (11)
€3m
RUD (10)
€1m
Istra 1961's defence is €26m less valuable than Dinamo Zagreb's (€5m vs €30m).
Croatia: HNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
NK Osijek
NK Varazdin
HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Rijeka
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Rudes
NK Slaven Belupo
HNK Gorica