In the upcoming match between Istra 1961 and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, the storyline is shaped by recent form. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb is on a 2-game winning run, while Istra 1961 is coming off a draw. Despite this, the model still favours a home win with a 38% probability, ahead of a 31% draw and 32% away win. The expected total number of goals is 2.3, with the most likely total being 2 goals.
The model's selection is the home win, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1 at 14.5%. Istra 1961 has scored an average of 1.25 goals at home, conceding 1.0, while NK Lokomotiva Zagreb has scored 1.0 goals away, conceding 1.62. The model's suggested picks include an Under 3.5 goal selection with a 79.6% probability and a 10% edge, as well as an Over 21.5 fouls selection with an 80.5% probability. The home win percentage is 38%, the draw percentage is 31%, and the away win percentage is 32%.
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb secured a 2-3 away win over Istra 1961, extending their 2-game winning run. The win marks a surprise turn of events, as the home side had been riding a draw and a loss in their previous two matches. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 38%. The actual result was in stark contrast to the model's call, which had predicted a Home win. The model's selection of Home win was the clear favourite, with a predicted probability of 38% for a home win. The suggested picks also failed to deliver, with Over 21.5 fouls and Under 3.5 both missing their mark, with probabilities of 80.5% and 79.6%, respectively.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Istra 1961 win✗ Miss
37.7%
Avg Implied 40.2% · @ 2.28
Edge
-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
2.40
Pinnacle
2.39
Betano
2.35
Dafabet
2.34
1xBet
2.33
Draw✗ Miss
30.8%
Avg Implied 27.9% · @ 3.29
Edge
+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.41
Dafabet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.35
1xBet
3.35
Superbet
3.30
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win✓ Hit
31.5%
Avg Implied 31.8% · @ 2.89
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.05
Unibet
3.05
Superbet
3.00
Pinnacle
2.96
10Bet
2.94
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Istra 1961
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.33
1.00
1.38
1.21
1.29
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
1.60
0.67
1.83
1.00
1.25
vs Similar (20)
1.25
1.20
1.20
1.10
1.30
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.47
1.40
1.40
0.73
1.53
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
2.00
0.83
2.33
0.20
1.60
vs Similar (19)
1.37
1.16
1.78
0.78
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Istra 1961) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.7%
@ 1.25-5.4%
Under 1.5
31.3%
@ 3.57+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.80
Pinnacle
3.78
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.60
Superbet
3.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.9%
@ 1.84-9.9%
Under 2.5
59.1%
@ 1.90+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
SBO
1.88
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.85
Betfair
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
SBO
1.92
Pinnacle
1.92
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.4%
@ 3.08-9.6%
Under 3.5
79.6%
@ 1.33+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.27
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Unibet
3.10
Under
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.3%
@ 1.67-7.1%
No
51.7%
@ 2.07+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.73
William Hil
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Betfair
1.67
Betano
1.67
No
Betfair
2.15
1xBet
2.14
Marathonbet
2.11
BetVictor
2.10
Betano
2.07
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%@ 5.88+7.1%
0-0
11.2%@ 9.22+6.4%
1-0
10.7%@ 7.48+4.9%
0-1
9.5%@ 8.82+4.5%
2-1
8.1%@ 8.12+2.7%
2-0
7.3%@ 10.46+3.2%
1-2
7.2%@ 9.45+2.6%
0-2
5.9%@ 13.74+2.8%
Istra 1961 goals ↓
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.5%
5.9%
2.2%
0.6%
1
11%
15%
7.2%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.3%
8.1%
4.4%
1.6%
0.4%
3
3.0%
3.3%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Istra 1961 goals (down), columns = NK Lokomotiva Zagreb goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.39
HNK Hajduk Split
1.89
NK Varazdin
1.50
HNK Rijeka
1.47
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.22
Istra 1961
1.19
Rudes
1.14
HNK Gorica
1.14
NK Slaven Belupo
1.14
NK Osijek
0.97
Istra 1961 is 0.03 points worse than NK Lokomotiva Zagreb in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.58
HNK Hajduk Split
1.69
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Varazdin
1.31
NK Slaven Belupo
1.28
HNK Gorica
1.11
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.11
Rudes
1.11
Istra 1961
1.08
NK Osijek
0.75
Istra 1961 is 0.03 goals worse than NK Lokomotiva Zagreb in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Zagreb
0.78
HNK Hajduk Split
1.00
HNK Rijeka
1.00
NK Varazdin
1.28
HNK Gorica
1.33
NK Osijek
1.36
Istra 1961
1.39
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.44
Rudes
1.60
NK Slaven Belupo
1.69
Istra 1961 is 0.06 goals better than NK Lokomotiva Zagreb in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
HNK Hajduk Split
58%
Dinamo Zagreb
58%
HNK Rijeka
52%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
50%
Istra 1961
50%
NK Osijek
49%
NK Slaven Belupo
49%
HNK Gorica
46%
NK Varazdin
44%
Istra 1961 is 0.5 percentage points worse than NK Lokomotiva Zagreb in terms of average possession (50% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Istra 1961
For 4.5 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 12.5 · Total 25.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
For 4.3 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 12.8 · Total 27.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Istra 1961
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.6
8.8
4.3
3.9
4.6
23.3
23.4
23.2
vs Stronger (15)
10.2
10.4
10.0
4.1
4.1
4.0
24.7
25.8
23.4
vs Similar (35)
8.8
9.2
8.4
4.4
3.8
4.9
22.7
22.2
23.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
41%
44%
38%
64%
56%
72%
63%
52%
75%
% under line
59%
56%
62%
36%
44%
28%
37%
48%
25%
This opponent (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.0
9.3
4.2
4.0
4.3
26.7
26.8
26.5
vs Stronger (16)
9.0
9.4
8.6
4.3
4.2
4.4
26.7
27.6
25.8
vs Similar (34)
9.2
8.8
9.6
4.1
3.9
4.2
26.6
26.4
26.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
42%
42%
42%
66%
65%
67%
90%
92%
88%
% under line
58%
58%
58%
34%
35%
33%
10%
8%
12%
This opponent (Istra 1961) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
NK Osijek
9.8
Rudes
9.8
Dinamo Zagreb
9.8
HNK Hajduk Split
9.4
NK Varazdin
9.3
Istra 1961
9.2
HNK Rijeka
9.1
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
9.1
HNK Gorica
8.7
NK Slaven Belupo
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NK Varazdin
4.9
NK Osijek
4.8
HNK Rijeka
4.7
Istra 1961
4.7
HNK Hajduk Split
4.6
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
4.3
NK Slaven Belupo
4.3
HNK Gorica
4.3
Dinamo Zagreb
4.2
Rudes
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
HNK Hajduk Split
26.8
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
26.7
NK Osijek
26.3
HNK Rijeka
26.0
HNK Gorica
25.5
Rudes
25.3
NK Varazdin
25.0
NK Slaven Belupo
24.7
Dinamo Zagreb
23.6
Istra 1961
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
46.8%
@ 2.00+0.6%
Under 9.5
53.2%
@ 1.73-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
Superbet
2.02
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
1.99
Marathonbet
1.96
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
1xBet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.70
Superbet
1.70
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
61.8%
@ 1.44-0.9%
Under 3.5
38.2%
@ 2.42+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.44
Under
Superbet
2.42
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
80.0%
Under 21.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Istra 1961
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.50
0.88
0.71
0.71
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
0.70
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.25
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.85
0.50
0.80
0.60
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.77
0.67
0.80
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
1.09
0.50
1.17
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.58
0.78
0.56
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Istra 1961) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Istra 1961 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istra 1961 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istra 1961 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Istra 1961
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
0.90
0.17
0.83
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.35
0.70
0.30
0.70
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.73
0.60
0.33
0.80
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
0.91
0.33
1.17
0.20
0.60
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.58
1.00
0.22
0.40
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Istra 1961) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Istra 1961 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istra 1961 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istra 1961 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
79.6%
1.33
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
+9.6%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
76.0%
1.25
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.22
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.1%
1.36
Superbet
1.36
-
-
-
-
+8.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Croatia: HNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dinamo Zagreb
NK Varazdin
NK Osijek
HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Rijeka
NK Slaven Belupo
Rudes
HNK Gorica