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Jarun vs Dubrava Zagreb Result & Analysis

Date: 17/05/2026
Time: 11:45
Final 0-2
Jarun
Jarun
Vs
46%
28%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dubrava Zagreb
Dubrava Zagreb
Croatia: First NL
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Jarun a 46% win probability against Dubrava Zagreb in the Croatia: First NL on 2026-05-17, with 28% for the draw and 25% for Dubrava Zagreb. The model estimates around 2.5 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.6%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (75%), Over 1.5 (73%).

Results analysis

Jarun finished 0-2 against Dubrava Zagreb (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 46% home win, 28% draw and 25% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (75%), Over 1.5 (73%).

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Jarun win✗ Miss
46.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dubrava Zagreb win✓ Hit
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

JarunJarun

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W31W00D02L01L20W01L02L12L21WH·CRO07/03A·DUB14/03A·DUG22/03H·SES28/03A·RUD04/04H·ORI12/04A·BSK18/04A·OPA24/04H·HRV02/05A·CRO10/05
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.231.430.930.751.50
vs Stronger (3)1.001.002.000.000.501.50
vs Similar (27)1.071.261.381.000.791.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Dubrava Zagreb) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dubrava ZagrebDubrava Zagreb

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D13L21W05L12L22D34L13L11D10WA·ORI07/03H·JAR14/03H·CRO21/03A·KAR02/04H·BSK07/04H·HNK11/04A·DUG18/04H·SES25/04A·RUD02/05H·ORI09/05
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.431.381.500.711.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)1.071.501.331.530.771.46
vs Weaker (2)1.000.502.001.000.000.00
Clean sheet %27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Jarun) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.0%
Under 1.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.3%
Under 2.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.8%
Under 3.5
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.2%
No
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-0
10.7%
0-0
9.2%
2-1
9.2%
2-0
8.9%
0-1
7.0%
1-2
6.4%
2-2
4.8%
Jarun goals ↓
Dubrava Zagreb goals →
01234
09.2%7.0%4.3%1.5%0.4%
111%14%6.4%2.2%0.6%
28.9%9.2%4.8%1.6%0.4%
34.4%4.6%2.4%0.8%0.2%
41.6%1.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jarun goals (down), columns = Dubrava Zagreb goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rudes
1.97
HNK Cibalia
1.76
Sesvete
1.73
Dugopolje
1.64
Dubrava Zagreb
1.42
Karlovac 1919
1.27
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.27
Opatija
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.15
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
1.06
Jarun
1.00
Jarun is 0.42 points worse than Dubrava Zagreb in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.42).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
HNK Cibalia
1.55
Rudes
1.48
Sesvete
1.27
Karlovac 1919
1.21
Dugopolje
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.18
Hrvace
1.09
Jarun
1.03
Croatia Zmijavci
0.97
Opatija
0.94
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Jarun is 0.15 goals worse than Dubrava Zagreb in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.18).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sesvete
0.85
Rudes
0.88
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
HNK Cibalia
1.00
Opatija
1.15
Dugopolje
1.15
Orijent 1919
1.24
Jarun
1.27
Karlovac 1919
1.36
Croatia Zmijavci
1.39
Dubrava Zagreb
1.39
Hrvace
1.45
Jarun is 0.12 goals better than Dubrava Zagreb in terms of goals conceded per game (1.27 vs 1.39).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

JarunJarun

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W20W00D01L00D10W01L01L12L20WH·CRO07/03A·DUB14/03A·DUG22/03H·SES28/03A·RUD04/04H·ORI12/04A·BSK18/04A·OPA24/04H·HRV02/05A·CRO10/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.530.640.430.560.62
vs Stronger (3)0.330.331.000.000.000.50
vs Similar (27)0.630.560.620.460.640.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Dubrava Zagreb) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dubrava ZagrebDubrava Zagreb

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L20W03L10W12L13L02L01L00DA·ORI07/03H·JAR14/03H·CRO21/03A·KAR02/04H·BSK07/04H·HNK11/04A·DUG18/04H·SES25/04A·RUD02/05H·ORI09/05
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.830.500.880.290.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.430.860.530.870.310.85
vs Weaker (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Jarun) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jarun over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jarun over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jarun over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubrava Zagreb over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubrava Zagreb over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubrava Zagreb over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (38)
€5m
SES (57)
€5m
O1 (36)
€5m
BBB (30)
€4m
RUD (35)
€4m
DUG (43)
€4m
CZ (43)
€4m
HC (29)
€4m
K1 (44)
€4m
HRV (52)
€3m
OPA (39)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (0)
€0m
BBB (0)
€0m
CZ (0)
€0m
DZ (0)
€0m
DUG (0)
€0m
HC (0)
€0m
HRV (0)
€0m
K1 (0)
€0m
OPA (0)
€0m
O1 (0)
€0m
SES (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (0)
€0m
BBB (0)
€0m
CZ (0)
€0m
DZ (0)
€0m
DUG (0)
€0m
HC (0)
€0m
HRV (0)
€0m
K1 (0)
€0m
OPA (0)
€0m
O1 (0)
€0m
SES (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (0)
€0m
BBB (0)
€0m
CZ (0)
€0m
DZ (0)
€0m
DUG (0)
€0m
HC (0)
€0m
HRV (0)
€0m
K1 (0)
€0m
OPA (0)
€0m
O1 (0)
€0m
SES (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 12. Games History

Head-to-head

Jarun vs Dubrava Zagreb · H/A from JAR
DateH/AGameScore
14/03/26ADubrava Zagreb Vs JAR1-3
19/10/25HJAR Vs Dubrava Zagreb1-1
22/03/25ADubrava Zagreb Vs JAR0-1
15/11/24ADubrava Zagreb Vs JAR1-0
07/09/24HJAR Vs Dubrava Zagreb3-1
12/04/24HJAR Vs Dubrava Zagreb0-1
16/02/24HJAR Vs Dubrava Zagreb1-0
25/09/23ADubrava Zagreb Vs JAR0-1

JarunJarun

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/26ACroatia Zmijavci Vs JAR1-2
02/05/26HJAR Vs Hrvace1-2
24/04/26AOpatija Vs JAR2-0
18/04/26ABsk Bijelo Brdo Vs JAR1-0
12/04/26HJAR Vs Orijent 19192-0
04/04/26ARudes Vs JAR1-0
28/03/26HJAR Vs Sesvete0-2
22/03/26ADugopolje Vs JAR0-0
14/03/26ADubrava Zagreb Vs JAR1-3
07/03/26HJAR Vs Croatia Zmijavci4-0

Dubrava ZagrebDubrava Zagreb

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26HDZ Vs Orijent 19191-0
02/05/26ARudes Vs DZ1-1
25/04/26HDZ Vs Sesvete1-3
18/04/26ADugopolje Vs DZ4-3
11/04/26HDZ Vs HNK Cibalia2-2
07/04/26HDZ Vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo1-2
02/04/26AKarlovac 1919 Vs DZ5-0
21/03/26HDZ Vs Croatia Zmijavci2-1
14/03/26HDZ Vs Jarun1-3
07/03/26AOrijent 1919 Vs DZ1-1

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Jarun
Jarun
Croatia: First NL
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLW1.04
HomeLWLWL1.12
AwayDLLLW0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%29%23%
AVG goals2.202.422.00
Over 1.5 %68%75%62%
Over 2.5 %38%46%31%
Over 3.5 %18%21%15%
Scored0.961.120.81
Conceded1.241.291.19
BTTS46%46%46%
Clean Sheet26%29%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Dubrava Zagreb
Dubrava Zagreb
Croatia: First NL
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLDW1.22
HomeWLDLW1.62
AwayLDLLD0.79
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%50%17%
AVG goals2.402.422.38
Over 1.5 %64%58%71%
Over 2.5 %48%50%46%
Over 3.5 %20%23%17%
Scored1.041.230.83
Conceded1.361.191.54
BTTS46%38%54%
Clean Sheet28%38%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RudesRudes3365
58%
2.0
4929+20
2.4
64%
39%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.50.9
-
2HNK CibaliaHNK Cibalia3358
52%
1.8
5133+18
2.5
73%
52%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.51.0
-
3SesveteSesvete3357
48%
1.7
4228+14
2.1
67%
36%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
0001.30.8
-
4DugopoljeDugopolje3354
48%
1.6
4038+2
2.4
70%
48%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.21.2
-
5Dubrava ZagrebDubrava Zagreb3347
39%
1.4
3946-7
2.6
70%
48%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
0001.21.4
-
6Bsk Bijelo BrdoBsk Bijelo Brdo3342
33%
1.3
3030+0
1.8
58%
27%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0000.90.9
-
7Karlovac 1919Karlovac 19193342
39%
1.3
4045-5
2.6
73%
55%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.21.4
-
8OpatijaOpatija3340
30%
1.2
3138-7
2.1
70%
36%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0000.91.2
-
9Orijent 1919Orijent 19193338
27%
1.2
4041-1
2.5
73%
39%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
0001.21.2
-
10HrvaceHrvace3336
30%
1.1
3648-12
2.5
70%
61%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0001.11.5
-
11Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci3335
27%
1.1
3246-14
2.4
70%
45%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.01.4
-
12JarunJarun3333
24%
1.0
3442-8
2.3
76%
39%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
Croatia: First NL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →

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