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Jarun vs HNK Cibalia Result & Analysis

Date: 30/05/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 1-1
Jarun
Jarun
Vs
34%
27%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
HNK Cibalia
HNK Cibalia
Croatia: First NL
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Jarun a 34% win probability against HNK Cibalia in the Croatia: First NL on 2026-05-30, with 27% for the draw and 39% for HNK Cibalia. The model estimates around 2.9 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (25%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.9%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (79%).

Results analysis

Jarun finished 1-1 against HNK Cibalia (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 34% home win, 27% draw and 39% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (79%).

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Jarun win✗ Miss
33.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
HNK Cibalia win✗ Miss
38.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

JarunJarun

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L01L20W01L02L12L21W02L12LA·DUG22/03H·SES28/03A·RUD04/04H·ORI12/04A·BSK18/04A·OPA24/04H·HRV02/05A·CRO10/05H·DUB17/05A·KAR22/05
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.271.361.000.811.50
vs Stronger (3)1.001.002.000.000.501.50
vs Similar (27)1.071.301.311.080.861.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Cibalia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HNK CibaliaHNK Cibalia

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W12L40W22D21W20W12L20W32W32WH·OPA21/03A·HRV28/03H·CRO04/04A·DUB11/04H·KAR18/04H·BSK25/04A·DUG04/05H·SES09/05A·RUD15/05H·ORI23/05
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.570.931.940.691.141.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)1.400.961.620.691.171.25
vs Weaker (5)2.400.803.330.671.001.00
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Jarun) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.0%
Under 1.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.4%
Under 2.5
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.1%
Under 3.5
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.9%
No
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.9%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
8.0%
0-1
7.3%
0-0
6.9%
1-0
6.7%
0-2
6.3%
2-2
6.0%
Jarun goals ↓
HNK Cibalia goals →
01234
06.9%7.3%6.3%3.1%1.2%
16.7%13%8.7%4.3%1.6%
25.4%8.0%6.0%2.9%1.1%
32.5%3.7%2.7%1.4%0.5%
40.9%1.3%0.9%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jarun goals (down), columns = HNK Cibalia goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rudes
1.97
HNK Cibalia
1.76
Sesvete
1.73
Dugopolje
1.64
Dubrava Zagreb
1.42
Karlovac 1919
1.27
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.27
Opatija
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.15
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
1.06
Jarun
1.00
Jarun is 0.76 points worse than HNK Cibalia in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.76).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
HNK Cibalia
1.55
Rudes
1.48
Sesvete
1.27
Karlovac 1919
1.21
Dugopolje
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.18
Hrvace
1.09
Jarun
1.03
Croatia Zmijavci
0.97
Opatija
0.94
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Jarun is 0.52 goals worse than HNK Cibalia in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.55).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sesvete
0.85
Rudes
0.88
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
HNK Cibalia
1.00
Opatija
1.15
Dugopolje
1.15
Orijent 1919
1.24
Jarun
1.27
Karlovac 1919
1.36
Croatia Zmijavci
1.39
Dubrava Zagreb
1.39
Hrvace
1.45
Jarun is 0.27 goals worse than HNK Cibalia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.27 vs 1.00).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

JarunJarun

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L00D10W01L01L12L20W01L11DA·DUG22/03H·SES28/03A·RUD04/04H·ORI12/04A·BSK18/04A·OPA24/04H·HRV02/05A·CRO10/05H·DUB17/05A·KAR22/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.530.640.500.620.56
vs Stronger (3)0.330.331.000.000.000.50
vs Similar (27)0.670.560.620.540.710.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Cibalia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HNK CibaliaHNK Cibalia

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L20W21W20W10W12L10W31W21WH·OPA21/03A·HRV28/03H·CRO04/04A·DUB11/04H·KAR18/04H·BSK25/04A·DUG04/05H·SES09/05A·RUD15/05H·ORI23/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.430.810.250.710.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.760.440.770.230.750.67
vs Weaker (5)0.800.401.000.330.500.50
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Jarun) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jarun over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jarun over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jarun over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Cibalia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Cibalia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Cibalia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (38)
€5m
SES (57)
€5m
O1 (36)
€5m
BBB (30)
€4m
RUD (35)
€4m
DUG (43)
€4m
CZ (43)
€4m
HC (29)
€4m
K1 (44)
€4m
HRV (52)
€3m
OPA (39)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (0)
€0m
BBB (0)
€0m
CZ (0)
€0m
DZ (0)
€0m
DUG (0)
€0m
HC (0)
€0m
HRV (0)
€0m
K1 (0)
€0m
OPA (0)
€0m
O1 (0)
€0m
SES (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (0)
€0m
BBB (0)
€0m
CZ (0)
€0m
DZ (0)
€0m
DUG (0)
€0m
HC (0)
€0m
HRV (0)
€0m
K1 (0)
€0m
OPA (0)
€0m
O1 (0)
€0m
SES (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (0)
€0m
BBB (0)
€0m
CZ (0)
€0m
DZ (0)
€0m
DUG (0)
€0m
HC (0)
€0m
HRV (0)
€0m
K1 (0)
€0m
OPA (0)
€0m
O1 (0)
€0m
SES (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 12. Games History

Head-to-head

Jarun vs HNK Cibalia · H/A from JAR
DateH/AGameScore
22/02/26AHNK Cibalia Vs JAR3-1
27/09/25HJAR Vs HNK Cibalia2-1
24/05/25AHNK Cibalia Vs JAR1-1
08/11/24HJAR Vs HNK Cibalia1-2
01/09/24AHNK Cibalia Vs JAR1-1
18/05/24AHNK Cibalia Vs JAR1-1
13/11/23HJAR Vs HNK Cibalia2-0
26/08/23AHNK Cibalia Vs JAR3-1

JarunJarun

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/05/26AKarlovac 1919 Vs JAR2-1
17/05/26HJAR Vs Dubrava Zagreb0-2
10/05/26ACroatia Zmijavci Vs JAR1-2
02/05/26HJAR Vs Hrvace1-2
24/04/26AOpatija Vs JAR2-0
18/04/26ABsk Bijelo Brdo Vs JAR1-0
12/04/26HJAR Vs Orijent 19192-0
04/04/26ARudes Vs JAR1-0
28/03/26HJAR Vs Sesvete0-2
22/03/26ADugopolje Vs JAR0-0

HNK CibaliaHNK Cibalia

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/05/26HHC Vs Orijent 19193-2
15/05/26ARudes Vs HC2-3
09/05/26HHC Vs Sesvete2-0
04/05/26ADugopolje Vs HC2-1
25/04/26HHC Vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo2-0
18/04/26HHC Vs Karlovac 19192-1
11/04/26ADubrava Zagreb Vs HC2-2
04/04/26HHC Vs Croatia Zmijavci4-0
28/03/26AHrvace Vs HC2-1
21/03/26HHC Vs Opatija2-0

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Jarun
Jarun
Croatia: First NL
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL1.04
HomeWLWLL1.12
AwayLLLWL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%29%23%
AVG goals2.222.382.08
Over 1.5 %70%75%65%
Over 2.5 %38%42%35%
Over 3.5 %18%21%15%
Scored0.961.080.85
Conceded1.261.291.23
BTTS46%42%50%
Clean Sheet26%29%23%
Corners---
Cards---
HNK Cibalia
HNK Cibalia
Croatia: First NL
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWW1.60
HomeWWWWW1.96
AwayLLDLW1.21
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%58%33%
AVG goals2.582.312.88
Over 1.5 %72%73%71%
Over 2.5 %54%42%67%
Over 3.5 %28%23%33%
Scored1.461.541.38
Conceded1.120.771.50
BTTS56%42%71%
Clean Sheet34%46%21%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RudesRudes3365
58%
2.0
4929+20
2.4
64%
39%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.50.9
-
2HNK CibaliaHNK Cibalia3358
52%
1.8
5133+18
2.5
73%
52%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.51.0
-
3SesveteSesvete3357
48%
1.7
4228+14
2.1
67%
36%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
0001.30.8
-
4DugopoljeDugopolje3354
48%
1.6
4038+2
2.4
70%
48%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.21.2
-
5Dubrava ZagrebDubrava Zagreb3347
39%
1.4
3946-7
2.6
70%
48%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
0001.21.4
-
6Bsk Bijelo BrdoBsk Bijelo Brdo3342
33%
1.3
3030+0
1.8
58%
27%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0000.90.9
-
7Karlovac 1919Karlovac 19193342
39%
1.3
4045-5
2.6
73%
55%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.21.4
-
8OpatijaOpatija3340
30%
1.2
3138-7
2.1
70%
36%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0000.91.2
-
9Orijent 1919Orijent 19193338
27%
1.2
4041-1
2.5
73%
39%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
0001.21.2
-
10HrvaceHrvace3336
30%
1.1
3648-12
2.5
70%
61%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0001.11.5
-
11Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci3335
27%
1.1
3246-14
2.4
70%
45%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.01.4
-
12JarunJarun3333
24%
1.0
3442-8
2.3
76%
39%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
Croatia: First NL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →

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