The model sees Metta / LU as the clear favourite, rating an 73 % chance of victory. Their recent two-game winning streak and a 2-0 win over Rēzekne FA underline this edge, especially at an away venue where they have scored an average of two goals per game against similar opposition. JDFS Alberts, meanwhile, have struggled at home, conceding only 0.17 goals per match but scoring just 1.67, and their last match ended 3-1 against Rīga FS II. The expected total of 3.3 goals points to a moderately high-scoring game, with the most likely total being three goals at a 22 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2 for Metta / LU, with an 11 % chance. Home win probability sits at 10 %, a draw at 18 %, and the away win at 73 %. Suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals at 98.9 %, Under 7.5 at 97.9 %, Away +2 handicap at 96.8 %, Under 6.5 at 94.6 %, Home under 2.5 goals at 94.6 %, Away over 0.5 goals at 91.7 %, Draw or Away at 90.1 %, and Away +1 handicap at 90.1 %. All selections carry the stated probabilities.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
JDFS Alberts win
6.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
13.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU win
80.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
JDFS Alberts
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.90
1.54
0.77
2.12
1.00
vs Stronger (18)
1.78
0.89
1.43
0.86
2.00
0.91
vs Similar (9)
1.89
0.67
1.20
0.20
2.75
1.25
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.67
4.00
3.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Metta / LU) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metta / LU
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.2
Avg scored
4.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.77
2.50
1.71
1.75
1.81
vs Stronger (23)
1.96
1.87
2.18
1.82
1.75
1.92
vs Similar (6)
1.50
1.67
1.00
2.00
1.75
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
9.00
0.00
9.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.5%
Under 1.5
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
70.6%
Under 2.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
49.5%
Under 3.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.0%
No
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
10.9%
0-3
10.5%
1-2
8.3%
1-3
8.0%
0-4
7.5%
0-1
7.0%
1-1
6.3%
1-4
5.8%
JDFS Alberts goals ↓
Metta / LU goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.2%
7.0%
11%
10%
7.5%
1
1.4%
6.3%
8.3%
8.0%
5.8%
2
0.8%
2.2%
3.2%
3.0%
2.2%
3
0.2%
0.6%
0.8%
0.8%
0.6%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = JDFS Alberts goals (down), columns = Metta / LU goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
JDFS Alberts is 0.33 points worse than Metta / LU in terms of average points per game (2.33 vs 2.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
JDFS Alberts is 3.83 goals worse than Metta / LU in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 5.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
JDFS Alberts is 0.17 goals worse than Metta / LU in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
JDFS Alberts or Draw
20.0%
Avg Implied -
6%
14%
80%
covers JDFS Alberts + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts or Metta / LU
86.5%
Avg Implied -
6%
14%
80%
covers JDFS Alberts + Metta / LU
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Metta / LU
93.6%
Avg Implied -
6%
14%
80%
covers Draw + Metta / LU
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5
Over
53.4%
Under
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5
Over
17.8%
Under
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 3.5
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 0.5
Over
94.4%
Under
5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 1.5
Over
78.3%
Under
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 2.5
Over
55.1%
Under
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 3.5
Over
32.7%
Under
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to JDFS Alberts, so a minus line means JDFS Alberts give that many goals of a start and Metta / LU receive them. At -1, JDFS Alberts must win by two or more to land; a one-goal JDFS Alberts win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (JDFS Alberts)
JDFS Alberts -2
0.4%
Draw -2
1.5%
Metta / LU +2
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (JDFS Alberts)
JDFS Alberts -1
1.9%
Draw -1
4.6%
Metta / LU +1
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (JDFS Alberts)
JDFS Alberts +1
20.0%
Draw +1
18.9%
Metta / LU -1
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (JDFS Alberts)
JDFS Alberts +2
38.8%
Draw +2
21.3%
Metta / LU -2
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
JDFS Alberts
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.37
0.54
0.46
0.88
0.29
vs Stronger (18)
0.72
0.33
0.57
0.43
0.82
0.27
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.22
0.20
0.20
1.00
0.25
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Metta / LU) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metta / LU
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.87
1.43
1.14
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (23)
0.83
1.00
1.18
1.36
0.50
0.67
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
6.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
JDFS Alberts
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.53
1.00
0.31
1.24
0.71
vs Stronger (18)
1.06
0.56
0.86
0.43
1.18
0.64
vs Similar (9)
1.33
0.44
1.00
0.00
1.75
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Metta / LU) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metta / LU
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.90
1.07
0.57
1.31
1.19
vs Stronger (23)
1.13
0.87
1.00
0.45
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (6)
1.17
1.17
0.50
1.50
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away win
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (3)
€0m
M/L (4)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JDFS Alberts and Metta / LU have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (2)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
JDFS Alberts and Metta / LU have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (1)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
JDFS Alberts and Metta / LU have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
JDFS Alberts and Metta / LU have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valmiera / BSS
Leevon / PPK
Riga Mariners
Skanste
Mārupe
Smiltene
Super Nova 2
Riga FC II
Tukums II
Rīgas FS II
JFK Ventspils
Rēzekne FA