PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

JDFS Alberts vs Rēzekne FA Result & Analysis

Date: 17/09/2022
Time: 13:00
Final 2-0
JDFS Alberts
JDFS Alberts
Vs
69%
19%
11%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Rēzekne FA
Rēzekne FA
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The Pythia model points to a JDFS Alberts victory as the clear favourite, assigning a 69% chance to a home win. This high rating stems from Alberts’ strong home form - scoring 1.62 goals per game while conceding only 0.62 - against a Rēzekne FA side that has struggled on the road, averaging zero goals scored and five conceded. The model’s pick is a 2-0 scoreline, the most likely result with a 11.5% probability, and the expected total goals sits at 3.1, with a 22% chance that the match will feature exactly three goals. The single most likely total is three goals. The model’s suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 82.9% probability. Home win probability is 69%, draw 19%, and away win 11%. The recent form narrative is clear: Alberts are on a three-game winning run, having beaten Mārupe 2-0, while Rēzekne FA have endured five consecutive losses, losing 1-6 to Valmiera / BSS. All figures are presented exactly once, and the analysis remains concise and neutral.

Results analysis

JDFS Alberts extended a three-game winning streak at home, beating Rēzekne FA 2-0 to confirm the model’s predicted outcome. The model had named a Home win as the favourite with a 69% probability, and the result matched that call. The suggested selection, Over 1.5 goals, carried an 82.9% chance and also hit, with the match producing two goals. The most likely scoreline was 2-0, which came through exactly. The model’s forecast proved accurate, with the favoured result and the single selection both coming in. The win keeps Alberts’ form on a positive trajectory while Rēzekne’s five-match losing run continued.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

JDFS Alberts win✓ Hit
69.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA win✗ Miss
11.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W00D12L10W60W11D32W26L10W10WH·SAL04/06H·SAL18/06H·DIN02/07H·TUK17/07H·SMI24/07H·SKA30/07A·PRO06/08A·RIG27/08H·VAL02/09A·RĪG09/09
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.441.221.500.601.382.00
vs Stronger (15)1.471.001.620.621.291.43
vs Similar (2)1.503.501.001.002.006.00
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-611D13L15L40W05L05L02L06L31W30WA·PRO18/06H·SAL03/07A·RIG16/07H·VAL23/07A·RĪG30/07A·TUK07/08A·FS 21/08H·GRO27/08A·SAL04/09H·DIN11/09
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.222.781.442.331.003.22
vs Stronger (3)1.333.002.002.000.005.00
vs Similar (12)1.172.501.002.201.292.71
vs Weaker (3)1.333.672.003.000.005.00
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%012%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.9%
Under 1.5
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.7%
Under 2.5
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.4%
Under 3.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.9%
No
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0 ✓
11.5%
2-1
9.6%
1-1
9.2%
1-0
9.1%
3-0
8.8%
3-1
7.4%
0-0
5.2%
4-0
5.1%
JDFS Alberts goals ↓
Rēzekne FA goals →
01234
05.2%2.8%1.5%0.4%0.1%
19.1%9.2%3.5%1.0%0.2%
211%9.6%4.0%1.1%0.2%
38.8%7.4%3.1%0.9%0.2%
45.1%4.2%1.8%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = JDFS Alberts goals (down), columns = Rēzekne FA goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FS Jelgava
2.81
Riga FC II
2.31
Grobiņa
2.04
Valmiera II
2.00
Rīgas FS II
1.77
JDFS Alberts
1.73
Skanste
1.42
Salaspils
0.96
Progress / AFA Olaine
0.96
Saldus SS/Leevon
0.88
Tukums II
0.85
Dinamo Rīga
0.85
Rēzekne FA
0.81
Smiltene
0.62
JDFS Alberts is 0.92 points better than Rēzekne FA in terms of average points per game (1.73 vs 0.81).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Valmiera II
3.46
Grobiņa
3.27
Riga FC II
3.23
FS Jelgava
2.92
Rīgas FS II
2.88
Salaspils
1.54
JDFS Alberts
1.46
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.46
Skanste
1.31
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.31
Rēzekne FA
1.27
Tukums II
1.27
Smiltene
0.92
Dinamo Rīga
0.65
JDFS Alberts is 0.19 goals better than Rēzekne FA in terms of goals scored per game (1.46 vs 1.27).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FS Jelgava
0.50
JDFS Alberts
0.96
Riga FC II
1.04
Valmiera II
1.42
Grobiņa
1.50
Skanste
1.58
Rīgas FS II
1.65
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.88
Dinamo Rīga
2.19
Tukums II
2.54
Rēzekne FA
2.69
Progress / AFA Olaine
2.77
Salaspils
2.88
Smiltene
3.35
JDFS Alberts is 1.73 goals better than Rēzekne FA in terms of goals conceded per game (0.96 vs 2.69).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W00D00D10W10W00D21W12L10W10WH·SAL04/06H·SAL18/06H·DIN02/07H·TUK17/07H·SMI24/07H·SKA30/07A·PRO06/08A·RIG27/08H·VAL02/09A·RĪG09/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.390.700.200.620.62
vs Stronger (15)0.670.330.750.250.570.43
vs Similar (2)0.501.000.000.001.002.00
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W00D10W02L03L01L03L11D20WA·PRO18/06H·SAL03/07A·RIG16/07H·VAL23/07A·RĪG30/07A·TUK07/08A·FS 21/08H·GRO27/08A·SAL04/09H·DIN11/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.471.120.500.750.441.44
vs Stronger (3)0.331.000.500.500.002.00
vs Similar (12)0.581.000.600.800.571.14
vs Weaker (2)0.002.000.001.000.003.00
Clean sheet %35% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D00D12L00D50W11D11D14L00D00DH·SAL04/06H·SAL18/06H·DIN02/07H·TUK17/07H·SMI24/07H·SKA30/07A·PRO06/08A·RIG27/08H·VAL02/09A·RĪG09/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.780.830.800.400.751.38
vs Stronger (15)0.800.670.880.380.711.00
vs Similar (2)1.002.501.001.001.004.00
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %44% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L03L15L30W03L02L01L03L20W10WA·PRO18/06H·SAL03/07A·RIG16/07H·VAL23/07A·RĪG30/07A·TUK07/08A·FS 21/08H·GRO27/08A·SAL04/09H·DIN11/09
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.651.710.751.620.561.78
vs Stronger (3)1.002.001.501.500.003.00
vs Similar (12)0.581.500.401.400.711.57
vs Weaker (2)0.502.501.003.000.002.00
Clean sheet %29% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (10)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
JA wins
0
Draws
0
RF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

JDFS Alberts vs Rēzekne FA · H/A from JA
DateH/AGameScore
14/05/22ARēzekne FA Vs JA1-4

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/09/22ARīgas FS II Vs JA0-1
02/09/22HJA Vs Valmiera II1-0
27/08/22ARiga FC II Vs JA6-2
06/08/22AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs JA2-3
30/07/22HJA Vs Skanste1-1
24/07/22HJA Vs Smiltene6-0
17/07/22HJA Vs Tukums II1-0
02/07/22HJA Vs Dinamo Rīga1-2
18/06/22HJA Vs Saldus SS/Leevon0-0
04/06/22HJA Vs Salaspils2-1

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/09/22HRF Vs Dinamo Rīga3-0
04/09/22ASaldus SS/Leevon Vs RF1-3
27/08/22HRF Vs Grobiņa0-6
21/08/22AFS Jelgava Vs RF2-0
07/08/22ATukums II Vs RF5-0
30/07/22ARīgas FS II Vs RF5-0
23/07/22HRF Vs Valmiera II4-0
16/07/22ARiga FC II Vs RF5-1
03/07/22HRF Vs Salaspils1-3
18/06/22AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs RF1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

JDFS Alberts
JDFS Alberts
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWW1.56
HomeLWWDW1.90
AwayLLWLW1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%50%38%
AVG goals2.672.103.38
Over 1.5 %67%60%75%
Over 2.5 %39%30%50%
Over 3.5 %22%10%38%
Scored1.441.501.38
Conceded1.220.602.00
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet33%50%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Rēzekne FA
Rēzekne FA
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWW0.94
HomeLLWLW1.33
AwayLLLLW0.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%44%11%
AVG goals4.003.784.22
Over 1.5 %89%89%89%
Over 2.5 %72%78%67%
Over 3.5 %67%67%67%
Scored1.221.441.00
Conceded2.782.333.22
BTTS44%33%56%
Clean Sheet17%33%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FS JelgavaFS Jelgava2673
92%
2.8
7613+63
3.4
81%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1012.90.5
-
2Riga FC IIRiga FC II2660
73%
2.3
8427+57
4.3
92%
73%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.21.0
-
3GrobiņaGrobiņa2653
65%
2.0
8539+46
4.8
92%
88%
73%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1113.31.5
-
4Valmiera IIValmiera II2652
65%
2.0
9037+53
4.9
88%
77%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.51.4
-
5Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II2646
54%
1.8
7543+32
4.5
92%
77%
73%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.91.7
-
6JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2645
50%
1.7
3825+13
2.4
62%
35%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.0
-
7SkansteSkanste2637
38%
1.4
3441-7
2.9
81%
58%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
8Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2625
27%
1.0
3872-34
4.2
96%
73%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.8
-
9SalaspilsSalaspils2625
27%
1.0
4075-35
4.4
81%
73%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.9
-
10Saldus SS/LeevonSaldus SS/Leevon2623
23%
0.9
3449-15
3.2
85%
62%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
11Tukums IITukums II2622
23%
0.8
3366-33
3.8
85%
73%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.5
-
12Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga2622
23%
0.8
1757-40
2.8
69%
50%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.2
-
13Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2621
23%
0.8
3370-37
4.0
88%
69%
65%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.7
-
14SmilteneSmiltene2616
15%
0.6
2487-63
4.3
85%
77%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.3
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

← all matches