The Pythia model points to a JDFS Alberts victory as the clear favourite, assigning a 69% chance to a home win. This high rating stems from Alberts’ strong home form - scoring 1.62 goals per game while conceding only 0.62 - against a Rēzekne FA side that has struggled on the road, averaging zero goals scored and five conceded. The model’s pick is a 2-0 scoreline, the most likely result with a 11.5% probability, and the expected total goals sits at 3.1, with a 22% chance that the match will feature exactly three goals. The single most likely total is three goals. The model’s suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 82.9% probability. Home win probability is 69%, draw 19%, and away win 11%. The recent form narrative is clear: Alberts are on a three-game winning run, having beaten Mārupe 2-0, while Rēzekne FA have endured five consecutive losses, losing 1-6 to Valmiera / BSS. All figures are presented exactly once, and the analysis remains concise and neutral.
Results analysis
JDFS Alberts extended a three-game winning streak at home, beating Rēzekne FA 2-0 to confirm the model’s predicted outcome. The model had named a Home win as the favourite with a 69% probability, and the result matched that call. The suggested selection, Over 1.5 goals, carried an 82.9% chance and also hit, with the match producing two goals. The most likely scoreline was 2-0, which came through exactly. The model’s forecast proved accurate, with the favoured result and the single selection both coming in. The win keeps Alberts’ form on a positive trajectory while Rēzekne’s five-match losing run continued.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
JDFS Alberts win✓ Hit
69.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA win✗ Miss
11.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
JDFS Alberts
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.44
1.22
1.50
0.60
1.38
2.00
vs Stronger (15)
1.47
1.00
1.62
0.62
1.29
1.43
vs Similar (2)
1.50
3.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
6.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rēzekne FA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.22
2.78
1.44
2.33
1.00
3.22
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
3.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (12)
1.17
2.50
1.00
2.20
1.29
2.71
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
3.67
2.00
3.00
0.00
5.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.9%
Under 1.5
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.7%
Under 2.5
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.4%
Under 3.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.9%
No
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0 ✓
11.5%
2-1
9.6%
1-1
9.2%
1-0
9.1%
3-0
8.8%
3-1
7.4%
0-0
5.2%
4-0
5.1%
JDFS Alberts goals ↓
Rēzekne FA goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.2%
2.8%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
1
9.1%
9.2%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
2
11%
9.6%
4.0%
1.1%
0.2%
3
8.8%
7.4%
3.1%
0.9%
0.2%
4
5.1%
4.2%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = JDFS Alberts goals (down), columns = Rēzekne FA goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FS Jelgava
2.81
Riga FC II
2.31
Grobiņa
2.04
Valmiera II
2.00
Rīgas FS II
1.77
JDFS Alberts
1.73
Skanste
1.42
Salaspils
0.96
Progress / AFA Olaine
0.96
Saldus SS/Leevon
0.88
Tukums II
0.85
Dinamo Rīga
0.85
Rēzekne FA
0.81
Smiltene
0.62
JDFS Alberts is 0.92 points better than Rēzekne FA in terms of average points per game (1.73 vs 0.81).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Valmiera II
3.46
Grobiņa
3.27
Riga FC II
3.23
FS Jelgava
2.92
Rīgas FS II
2.88
Salaspils
1.54
JDFS Alberts
1.46
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.46
Skanste
1.31
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.31
Rēzekne FA
1.27
Tukums II
1.27
Smiltene
0.92
Dinamo Rīga
0.65
JDFS Alberts is 0.19 goals better than Rēzekne FA in terms of goals scored per game (1.46 vs 1.27).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FS Jelgava
0.50
JDFS Alberts
0.96
Riga FC II
1.04
Valmiera II
1.42
Grobiņa
1.50
Skanste
1.58
Rīgas FS II
1.65
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.88
Dinamo Rīga
2.19
Tukums II
2.54
Rēzekne FA
2.69
Progress / AFA Olaine
2.77
Salaspils
2.88
Smiltene
3.35
JDFS Alberts is 1.73 goals better than Rēzekne FA in terms of goals conceded per game (0.96 vs 2.69).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
JDFS Alberts
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.39
0.70
0.20
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
0.33
0.75
0.25
0.57
0.43
vs Similar (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rēzekne FA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.12
0.50
0.75
0.44
1.44
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
1.00
0.60
0.80
0.57
1.14
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
35% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
JDFS Alberts
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.78
0.83
0.80
0.40
0.75
1.38
vs Stronger (15)
0.80
0.67
0.88
0.38
0.71
1.00
vs Similar (2)
1.00
2.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
4.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
44% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rēzekne FA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.65
1.71
0.75
1.62
0.56
1.78
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.00
1.50
1.50
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
1.50
0.40
1.40
0.71
1.57
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
2.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
29% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: 1. Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →