JDFS Alberts are expected to come out on top in this encounter against Riga FC II, with a predicted 57% chance of a home win. This match is likely to be a closely contested affair, with a 24% chance of exactly two goals being scored and an expected total of 3.0 goals. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, occurring with a 11.4% probability.
JDFS Alberts have been performing well at home, scoring an average of 2.67 goals and conceding just 0.33 goals per match against similar opponents. In contrast, Riga FC II have been struggling to score away from home, averaging 0 goals per match, while conceding 2 goals per match against similar opponents.
The model's selection is the home win, with a 57% probability of success. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals, occurring with an 80.4% probability. Other suggested picks include the home win percentage of 57%, the draw percentage of 24%, and the away win percentage of 19%.
Results analysis
The win extends JDFS Alberts' run, with a 2-0 scoreline sealing the deal. The model's call was correct, backing the home win with a 57% probability. The model's selection was the correct favourite, and it largely came in, with one of the selections hitting. The Over 1.5 goal line, JDFS Alberts' selection with an 80.4% probability, was the only one to hit, while the other suggested picks missed. The final score and actual result both landed in favour of the home team, as predicted by the model.
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šÆ 1. Model Analysis
JDFS Alberts winā Hit
57.1%
Avg Implied 58.7% · @ 1.54
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.65
10Bet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
Superbet
1.55
Betfair
1.53
Drawā Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied 22.1% · @ 4.09
Edge
+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
Betano
4.25
Betfair
4.20
Bet365
4.20
Riga FC II winā Miss
18.9%
Avg Implied 19.2% · @ 4.70
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.55
William Hil
4.80
Betfair
4.75
Betano
4.55
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
JDFS Alberts
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
0.90
2.14
0.79
2.06
1.00
vs Stronger (18)
2.06
0.89
2.25
0.88
1.90
0.90
vs Similar (9)
2.11
0.67
1.60
0.20
2.75
1.25
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.67
4.00
3.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Riga FC II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.67
1.88
1.44
0.79
1.93
vs Stronger (16)
1.25
1.69
2.00
1.38
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (11)
1.55
1.82
1.83
1.83
1.20
1.80
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.4%
@ 1.11-1.4%
Under 1.5
19.6%
@ 5.00+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.11
Under
1xBet
5.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.7%
@ 1.43-7.5%
Under 2.5
43.3%
@ 2.55+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Under
1xBet
2.62
Marathonbet
2.62
Pinnacle
2.53
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.50
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.3%
@ 2.05-10.4%
Under 3.5
65.7%
@ 1.65+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.10
Superbet
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.01
Under
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.70
Superbet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.64
10Bet
1.60
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.0%
@ 1.50-5.0%
No
44.0%
@ 2.35+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
William Hil
1.50
Superbet
1.50
No
Superbet
2.40
William Hil
2.38
1xBet
2.34
Marathonbet
2.29
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%@ 7.62+6.0%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.58+4.5%
2-0 ā
9.6%@ 8.82+5.0%
1-0
9.0%@ 9.55+4.7%
3-1
6.4%@ 10.20+2.3%
0-0
6.2%@ 16.67+3.8%
3-0
6.2%@ 11.50+2.6%
1-2
5.3%@ 12.83+2.1%
JDFS Alberts goals ↓
Riga FC II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
4.3%
2.8%
1.0%
0.2%
1
9.0%
11%
5.3%
1.8%
0.5%
2
9.6%
9.9%
5.1%
1.8%
0.5%
3
6.2%
6.4%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
4
3.0%
3.1%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = JDFS Alberts goals (down), columns = Riga FC II goals (across).
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šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
MÄrupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
RÄ«gas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
RÄzekne FA
0.00
JDFS Alberts is 1.50 points better than Riga FC II in terms of average points per game (2.33 vs 0.83).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
RÄ«gas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
MÄrupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
RÄzekne FA
0.67
JDFS Alberts is 1.00 goals better than Riga FC II in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.00).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
MÄrupe
2.43
RÄzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
RÄ«gas FS II
4.17
JDFS Alberts is 1.33 goals better than Riga FC II in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 2.00).
ā±ļø Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
š² 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
š 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
āļø 7. Handicap
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
JDFS Alberts
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.37
1.00
0.50
0.81
0.25
vs Stronger (18)
0.94
0.33
1.25
0.50
0.70
0.20
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.22
0.40
0.20
1.00
0.25
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Riga FC II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.88
0.50
0.50
0.93
vs Stronger (16)
0.50
0.69
0.75
0.38
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.91
0.73
1.00
0.67
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
JDFS Alberts
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.53
1.14
0.29
1.25
0.75
vs Stronger (18)
1.11
0.56
1.00
0.38
1.20
0.70
vs Similar (9)
1.44
0.44
1.20
0.00
1.75
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Riga FC II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.97
1.00
0.94
0.29
1.00
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.00
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.64
1.09
0.83
1.17
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.4%
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-
-
-
-
-1.4%
ā Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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š° 14. Squad value
š° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (3)
€0m
M/L (4)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JDFS Alberts and Riga FC II have a similar squad value (both €0m).
āļø Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (2)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
JDFS Alberts and Riga FC II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
š§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (1)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
š”ļø Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
JDFS Alberts and Riga FC II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valmiera / BSS
Metta / LU
Leevon / PPK
Riga Mariners
Skanste
MÄrupe
Smiltene
Super Nova 2
Tukums II
RÄ«gas FS II
JFK Ventspils
RÄzekne FA