JDFS Alberts will face a challenging outing as Smiltene, riding a recent two-game winning streak, are tipped to win. The model favours an away victory, with a 40 % chance of Smiltene triumph, 35 % for a JDFS Alberts win and 25 % for a draw. The expected goal count sits at 3.3, centring on a three-goal total that is 22 % likely. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.9 % chance.
At home JDFS Alberts average 1.43 goals scored and concede 0.86 against stronger opposition, while Smiltene, playing away against weaker teams, average 2.0 goals scored and 2.67 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.0 %), Under 6.5 (94.8 %), Home under 3.5 goals (92.0 %), Away under 3.5 goals (90.5 %), Under 5.5 (88.0 %), Over 1.5 (85.4 %), Away +2 handicap (82.2 %), and Away over 0.5 goals (82.0 %).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
JDFS Alberts win
35.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Smiltene win
39.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
JDFS Alberts
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.90
1.54
0.77
2.12
1.00
vs Stronger (18)
1.78
0.89
1.43
0.86
2.00
0.91
vs Similar (9)
1.89
0.67
1.20
0.20
2.75
1.25
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.67
4.00
3.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Smiltene
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
2.17
1.69
2.56
1.57
1.71
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
2.50
1.50
3.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (16)
2.00
1.56
2.38
1.50
1.62
1.62
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
3.12
0.50
4.25
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.4%
Under 1.5
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.5%
Under 2.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.5%
Under 3.5
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
66.6%
No
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.0%
2-2
6.9%
0-2
5.3%
0-1
5.2%
1-3
4.9%
1-0
4.8%
JDFS Alberts goals ↓
Smiltene goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
5.2%
5.3%
3.0%
1.3%
1
4.8%
11%
8.5%
4.9%
2.1%
2
4.6%
8.0%
6.9%
3.9%
1.7%
3
2.5%
4.3%
3.7%
2.1%
0.9%
4
1.0%
1.7%
1.5%
0.8%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = JDFS Alberts goals (down), columns = Smiltene goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
JDFS Alberts is 1.33 points better than Smiltene in terms of average points per game (2.33 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
JDFS Alberts is 0.50 goals better than Smiltene in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
JDFS Alberts is 2.67 goals better than Smiltene in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 3.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
JDFS Alberts or Draw
60.1%
Avg Implied -
35%
25%
40%
covers JDFS Alberts + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts or Smiltene
75.1%
Avg Implied -
35%
25%
40%
covers JDFS Alberts + Smiltene
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Smiltene
64.8%
Avg Implied -
35%
25%
40%
covers Draw + Smiltene
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5
Over
79.9%
Under
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5
Over
47.7%
Under
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5
Over
21.8%
Under
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 3.5
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 0.5
Over
82.1%
Under
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5
Over
51.3%
Under
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5
Over
24.8%
Under
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 3.5
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to JDFS Alberts, so a minus line means JDFS Alberts give that many goals of a start and Smiltene receive them. At -1, JDFS Alberts must win by two or more to land; a one-goal JDFS Alberts win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (JDFS Alberts)
JDFS Alberts -2
7.1%
Draw -2
10.7%
Smiltene +2
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (JDFS Alberts)
JDFS Alberts -1
17.8%
Draw -1
17.4%
Smiltene +1
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (JDFS Alberts)
JDFS Alberts +1
60.1%
Draw +1
18.7%
Smiltene -1
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (JDFS Alberts)
JDFS Alberts +2
78.8%
Draw +2
12.2%
Smiltene -2
9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
JDFS Alberts
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.37
0.54
0.46
0.88
0.29
vs Stronger (18)
0.72
0.33
0.57
0.43
0.82
0.27
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.22
0.20
0.20
1.00
0.25
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Smiltene
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.07
0.94
1.06
0.57
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.33
0.50
1.75
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.88
1.50
0.62
0.50
1.12
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
1.25
0.25
1.25
0.75
1.25
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.9%
Under 0.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.4%
Under 1.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.7%
Under 2.5
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 HT
Over
68.8%
Under
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 HT
Over
28.3%
Under
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 HT
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 HT
Over
25.4%
Under
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
JDFS Alberts
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.53
1.00
0.31
1.24
0.71
vs Stronger (18)
1.06
0.56
0.86
0.43
1.18
0.64
vs Similar (9)
1.33
0.44
1.00
0.00
1.75
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Smiltene
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.10
0.75
1.50
1.00
0.64
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.17
1.00
1.25
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.69
0.88
0.88
1.12
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
1.88
0.25
3.00
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.6%
Under 0.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
53.3%
Under 1.5
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
27.6%
Under 2.5
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 2H
Over
74.7%
Under
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 2H
Over
41.0%
Under
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 2H
Over
14.0%
Under
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 2H
Over
37.0%
Under
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 2H
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 2H goals
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 0.5 HT goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valmiera / BSS
Metta / LU
Leevon / PPK
Riga Mariners
Skanste
Mārupe
Super Nova 2
Riga FC II
Tukums II
Rīgas FS II
JFK Ventspils
Rēzekne FA