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Jezero vs Arsenal Tivat Result & Analysis

Date: 01/10/2023
Time: 16:00
Final 1-1
Jezero
Jezero
Vs
35%
38%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Jezero win✗ Miss
35.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
37.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat win✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

JezeroJezero

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L22D10W11D20W21W00D10W01L11DH·SUT23/07A·ARS30/07H·JED05/08A·BUD13/08H·PET20/08A·MLA25/08H·DEČ03/09A·RUD16/09H·MOR23/09A·SUT27/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.870.800.471.071.27
vs Stronger (8)1.121.500.331.001.601.80
vs Similar (19)0.950.741.000.360.881.25
vs Weaker (3)0.330.000.000.000.500.00
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W22D22D10W22D02L22D12L01L20WA·RUD23/07H·JEZ30/07A·SUT06/08A·MOR12/08H·JED20/08A·BUD26/08H·PET03/09A·MLA16/09H·DEČ23/09H·RUD27/09
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.071.001.331.000.80
vs Stronger (8)0.882.000.672.671.001.60
vs Similar (18)1.000.781.101.100.880.38
vs Weaker (4)1.250.501.000.501.500.50
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%15%22%30%21%030%127%214%36%42%51%6+
The model estimates around 1.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (30%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
49.2%
Under 1.5
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
22.0%
Under 2.5
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
8.0%
Under 3.5
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
31.7%
No
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
21.2%
1-0
16.2%
1-1 ✓
14.1%
0-1
13.4%
2-0
7.6%
2-1
5.6%
0-2
5.4%
1-2
4.7%
Jezero goals ↓
Arsenal Tivat goals →
01234
021%13%5.4%1.3%0.2%
116%14%4.7%1.2%0.2%
27.6%5.6%2.1%0.5%0.1%
32.2%1.6%0.6%0.1%0.0%
40.5%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jezero goals (down), columns = Arsenal Tivat goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Otrant-Olympic
2.00
Dečić
1.94
Mornar
1.78
Buducnost Podgorica
1.69
Sutjeska
1.47
Jezero
1.42
Petrovac
1.33
Arsenal Tivat
1.17
Jedinstvo
1.03
Mladost DG
0.92
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.75
Mladost Lješkopolje
0.50
Jezero is 0.25 points better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.17).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Buducnost Podgorica
1.83
Dečić
1.53
Otrant-Olympic
1.50
Sutjeska
1.28
Mornar
1.25
Jedinstvo
1.21
Arsenal Tivat
1.19
Petrovac
1.17
Jezero
1.14
Mladost DG
1.03
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.69
Mladost Lješkopolje
0.50
Jezero is 0.06 goals worse than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.19).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.75
Mornar
0.89
Sutjeska
1.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.00
Jezero
1.06
Petrovac
1.11
Buducnost Podgorica
1.19
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.50
Jedinstvo
1.50
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.50
Arsenal Tivat
1.61
Mladost DG
1.63
Jezero is 0.56 goals better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.61).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

JezeroJezero

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L11D00D00D00D20W00D10W00D00DH·SUT23/07A·ARS30/07H·JED05/08A·BUD13/08H·PET20/08A·MLA25/08H·DEČ03/09A·RUD16/09H·MOR23/09A·SUT27/09
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.230.270.130.400.33
vs Stronger (8)0.250.500.000.670.400.40
vs Similar (19)0.370.160.360.000.380.38
vs Weaker (3)0.330.000.000.000.500.00
Clean sheet %80% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D20W00D12L02L11D00D01L20WA·RUD23/07H·JEZ30/07A·SUT06/08A·MOR12/08H·JED20/08A·BUD26/08H·PET03/09A·MLA16/09H·DEČ23/09H·RUD27/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.530.670.800.400.27
vs Stronger (8)0.620.880.331.000.800.80
vs Similar (18)0.390.440.700.800.000.00
vs Weaker (4)1.000.251.000.501.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jezero over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

JezeroJezero

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D10W11D20W01L00D00D01L11DH·SUT23/07A·ARS30/07H·JED05/08A·BUD13/08H·PET20/08A·MLA25/08H·DEČ03/09A·RUD16/09H·MOR23/09A·SUT27/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.630.530.330.670.93
vs Stronger (8)0.881.000.330.331.201.40
vs Similar (19)0.580.580.640.360.500.88
vs Weaker (3)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D02L10W10W00D11D12L00D00DA·RUD23/07H·JEZ30/07A·SUT06/08A·MOR12/08H·JED20/08A·BUD26/08H·PET03/09A·MLA16/09H·DEČ23/09H·RUD27/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.530.330.530.600.53
vs Stronger (8)0.251.120.331.670.200.80
vs Similar (18)0.610.330.400.300.880.38
vs Weaker (4)0.250.250.000.000.500.50
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jezero over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.592.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 2.578.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
Jezero and Arsenal Tivat have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Jezero and Arsenal Tivat have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
Jezero and Arsenal Tivat have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
JED (10)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
Jezero and Arsenal Tivat have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
2
JEZ wins
2
Draws
1
AT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Jezero vs Arsenal Tivat · H/A from JEZ
DateH/AGameScore
30/07/23AArsenal Tivat Vs JEZ2-2
15/04/23AArsenal Tivat Vs JEZ1-0
23/02/23HJEZ Vs Arsenal Tivat1-0
15/10/22AArsenal Tivat Vs JEZ1-1
06/08/22HJEZ Vs Arsenal Tivat2-1

JezeroJezero

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/09/23ASutjeska Vs JEZ1-1
23/09/23HJEZ Vs Mornar0-1
16/09/23ARudar (Montenegro) Vs JEZ0-1
03/09/23HJEZ Vs Dečić0-0
25/08/23AMladost DG Vs JEZ1-2
20/08/23HJEZ Vs Petrovac2-0
13/08/23ABuducnost Podgorica Vs JEZ1-1
05/08/23HJEZ Vs Jedinstvo1-0
30/07/23AArsenal Tivat Vs JEZ2-2
23/07/23HJEZ Vs Sutjeska0-1

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/09/23HAT Vs Rudar (Montenegro)2-0
23/09/23HAT Vs Dečić0-1
16/09/23AMladost DG Vs AT2-1
03/09/23HAT Vs Petrovac2-2
26/08/23ABuducnost Podgorica Vs AT2-0
20/08/23HAT Vs Jedinstvo2-2
12/08/23AMornar Vs AT0-1
06/08/23ASutjeska Vs AT2-2
30/07/23HAT Vs Jezero2-2
23/07/23ARudar (Montenegro) Vs AT0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Jezero
Jezero
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWLD1.28
HomeLWWDL1.70
AwayDDWWD0.87
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%43%17%
AVG goals1.961.612.30
Over 1.5 %59%48%70%
Over 2.5 %37%30%43%
Over 3.5 %13%13%13%
Scored0.981.000.96
Conceded0.980.611.35
BTTS50%35%65%
Clean Sheet33%52%13%
Corners---
Cards---
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLW1.33
HomeDDDLW1.12
AwayWDWLL1.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%25%42%
AVG goals2.352.462.25
Over 1.5 %62%67%58%
Over 2.5 %44%42%46%
Over 3.5 %25%29%21%
Scored1.121.041.21
Conceded1.231.421.04
BTTS46%46%46%
Clean Sheet33%29%38%
Corners12.509.0016.00
Cards3.503.004.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1DečićDečić3670
56%
1.9
5527+28
2.3
69%
36%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.50.8
-
2MornarMornar3664
47%
1.8
4532+13
2.1
50%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.20.9
-
3Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3661
47%
1.7
6643+23
3.0
86%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.81.2
-
4SutjeskaSutjeska3653
36%
1.5
4636+10
2.3
67%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.31.0
-
5JezeroJezero3651
39%
1.4
4138+3
2.2
64%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.1
-
6PetrovacPetrovac3648
31%
1.3
4240+2
2.3
69%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.1
-
7Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3642
25%
1.2
4358-15
2.8
83%
47%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.21.6
-
8JedinstvoJedinstvo3839
24%
1.0
4657-11
2.7
74%
45%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.5
-
9Mladost DGMladost DG3835
24%
0.9
3962-23
2.7
76%
55%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.6
-
10Rudar (Montenegro)Rudar (Montenegro)3627
19%
0.8
2554-29
2.2
58%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.5
-
11Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic24
50%
2.0
32+1
2.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.0
-
12Mladost LješkopoljeMladost Lješkopolje21
0%
0.5
13-2
2.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.5
-
Montenegro: First League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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