Defensive solidity will dominate this encounter, with Jezero’s home form showing a modest 0.75 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded per match, while Arsenal Tivat’s away outings average 0.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. The model predicts a tight, low-scoring affair, with an expected total of 1.8 goals and the most likely total of 2 goals at 28 %. The single most probable scoreline is 0-0, carrying a 17.5 % chance. Jezero is favoured to win, with a 43 % chance, a draw at 34 %, and Arsenal Tivat at 23 %. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.9 %), Under 6.5 (99.7 %), Away under 3.5 goals (99.3 %), Under 5.5 (98.9 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.5 %), Away under 2.5 goals (96.2 %), Under 4.5 (96.2 %) and Home +2 handicap (92.9 %). Each selection is listed with its exact probability, and no other outcomes are mentioned.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Jezero win
42.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
34.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat win
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Jezero
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.13
1.00
0.69
1.00
1.64
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
0.67
0.33
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (25)
1.08
1.20
1.08
0.77
1.08
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal Tivat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.23
0.86
1.00
0.94
1.44
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.29
0.50
0.25
1.67
2.67
vs Similar (23)
0.87
1.22
1.00
1.30
0.77
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
55.6%
Under 1.5
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
27.5%
Under 2.5
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
11.2%
Under 3.5
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
35.7%
No
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
17.5%
1-0
16.4%
1-1
14.2%
0-1
10.5%
2-0
9.6%
2-1
7.0%
1-2
4.7%
0-2
4.3%
Jezero goals ↓
Arsenal Tivat goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
17%
11%
4.3%
1.0%
0.2%
1
16%
14%
4.7%
1.1%
0.2%
2
9.6%
7.0%
2.6%
0.6%
0.1%
3
3.5%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
4
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jezero goals (down), columns = Arsenal Tivat goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dečić
2.60
Mornar
2.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Bokelj
1.33
Petrovac
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
0.80
Arsenal Tivat
0.80
Mladost DG
0.80
Jezero is 0.20 points better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dečić
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mornar
1.33
Sutjeska
1.20
Mladost DG
1.00
Petrovac
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica
0.40
Jezero
0.40
Bokelj
0.33
Arsenal Tivat
0.20
Jezero is 0.20 goals better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals scored per game (0.40 vs 0.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.20
Arsenal Tivat
0.40
Petrovac
0.40
Bokelj
0.50
Mornar
0.67
Buducnost Podgorica
0.80
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mladost DG
2.00
Jezero is 0.60 goals worse than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Jezero or Draw
77.0%
Avg Implied -
43%
34%
23%
covers Jezero + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jezero or Arsenal Tivat
65.5%
Avg Implied -
43%
34%
23%
covers Jezero + Arsenal Tivat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Arsenal Tivat
57.4%
Avg Implied -
43%
34%
23%
covers Draw + Arsenal Tivat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Jezero over/under 0.5
Over
66.4%
Under
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5
Over
29.8%
Under
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 3.5
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5
Over
51.8%
Under
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Jezero, so a minus line means Jezero give that many goals of a start and Arsenal Tivat receive them. At -1, Jezero must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Jezero win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Jezero)
Jezero -2
5.7%
Draw -2
12.5%
Arsenal Tivat +2
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Jezero)
Jezero -1
18.1%
Draw -1
24.4%
Arsenal Tivat +1
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Jezero)
Jezero +1
77.0%
Draw +1
15.9%
Arsenal Tivat -1
7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Jezero)
Jezero +2
92.9%
Draw +2
5.6%
Arsenal Tivat -2
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Jezero
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.37
0.44
0.38
0.57
0.36
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.40
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.36
0.46
0.38
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal Tivat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.53
0.36
0.50
0.31
0.56
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.29
0.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (23)
0.35
0.61
0.50
0.70
0.23
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
64.0%
Under 0.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
28.0%
Under 1.5
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
8.3%
Under 2.5
91.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jezero over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.4%
Under
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.6%
Under
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.3%
Under
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Jezero
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.56
0.31
0.43
1.29
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.40
0.33
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.84
0.62
0.38
0.42
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal Tivat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.50
0.50
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.00
0.50
0.25
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.61
0.50
0.60
0.54
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.3%
Under 0.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.0%
Under 1.5
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.9%
Under 2.5
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jezero over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.3%
Under
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.3%
Under
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
Jezero and Arsenal Tivat have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
Jezero and Arsenal Tivat have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
Jezero and Arsenal Tivat have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
Jezero and Arsenal Tivat have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dečić
Mornar
Bokelj
Otrant-Olympic
Petrovac
Buducnost Podgorica
Sutjeska
Mladost DG