Jezero’s defensive solidity is highlighted by a 0.5 average of goals conceded at home, while Bokelj’s away form shows a slightly higher 0.57 conceded. Both sides have scored modestly against similar opposition, with Jezero at 0.75 and Bokelj at 0.5. The model projects a tight 1.6-goal match, most likely ending 0-0 with a 20.6 % chance, followed by 1-0 and 1-1. The favourite result is a Draw, with probabilities of 36 % for a home win, 37 % for a draw, and 27 % for an away win. The expected total of 1.6 goals points to a low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 0-0. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (100 %), Under 6.5 (99.8 %), Under 5.5 (99.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (99.3 %), Home under 3.5 goals (98.7 %), Under 4.5 (97.4 %), Away under 2.5 goals (96.0 %), and Home under 2.5 goals (93.8 %). The recent 0-0 draws for both teams reinforce the expectation of a cautious, low-scoring encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Jezero win
37.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
37.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bokelj win
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Jezero
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.13
1.00
0.69
1.00
1.64
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
0.67
0.33
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (25)
1.08
1.20
1.08
0.77
1.08
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Bokelj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bokelj
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.77
1.00
0.93
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.88
1.00
1.08
0.42
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (30%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.7%
Under 1.5
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.8%
Under 2.5
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
7.4%
Under 3.5
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
30.2%
No
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
22.1%
1-0
17.4%
1-1
13.8%
0-1
12.8%
2-0
8.3%
2-1
5.6%
0-2
4.7%
1-2
4.2%
Jezero goals ↓
Bokelj goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
22%
13%
4.7%
1.1%
0.2%
1
17%
14%
4.2%
0.9%
0.2%
2
8.3%
5.6%
1.9%
0.4%
0.1%
3
2.5%
1.7%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
4
0.6%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jezero goals (down), columns = Bokelj goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dečić
2.60
Mornar
2.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Bokelj
1.33
Petrovac
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
0.80
Arsenal Tivat
0.80
Mladost DG
0.80
Jezero is 0.33 points worse than Bokelj in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dečić
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mornar
1.33
Sutjeska
1.20
Mladost DG
1.00
Petrovac
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica
0.40
Jezero
0.40
Bokelj
0.33
Arsenal Tivat
0.20
Jezero is 0.07 goals better than Bokelj in terms of goals scored per game (0.40 vs 0.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.20
Arsenal Tivat
0.40
Petrovac
0.40
Bokelj
0.50
Mornar
0.67
Buducnost Podgorica
0.80
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mladost DG
2.00
Jezero is 0.50 goals worse than Bokelj in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Jezero or Draw
75.3%
Avg Implied -
37%
38%
25%
covers Jezero + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jezero or Bokelj
62.1%
Avg Implied -
37%
38%
25%
covers Jezero + Bokelj
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Bokelj
62.6%
Avg Implied -
37%
38%
25%
covers Draw + Bokelj
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Jezero over/under 0.5
Over
59.1%
Under
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5
Over
22.5%
Under
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 0.5
Over
49.0%
Under
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 1.5
Over
14.6%
Under
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 2.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 3.5
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Jezero, so a minus line means Jezero give that many goals of a start and Bokelj receive them. At -1, Jezero must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Jezero win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Jezero)
Jezero -2
3.6%
Draw -2
10.1%
Bokelj +2
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Jezero)
Jezero -1
13.8%
Draw -1
23.6%
Bokelj +1
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Jezero)
Jezero +1
75.3%
Draw +1
17.5%
Bokelj -1
7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Jezero)
Jezero +2
92.8%
Draw +2
5.7%
Bokelj -2
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Jezero
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.37
0.44
0.38
0.57
0.36
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.40
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.36
0.46
0.38
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Bokelj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bokelj
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.47
0.43
0.50
0.31
0.44
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.38
0.50
0.50
0.58
0.25
0.42
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jezero over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Jezero
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.56
0.31
0.43
1.29
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.40
0.33
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.84
0.62
0.38
0.42
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Bokelj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bokelj
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.30
0.57
0.43
0.25
0.19
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.33
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.33
0.38
0.50
0.50
0.17
0.25
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jezero over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
100.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
Jezero and Bokelj have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
Jezero and Bokelj have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
Jezero and Bokelj have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
Jezero and Bokelj have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dečić
Mornar
Otrant-Olympic
Petrovac
Buducnost Podgorica
Sutjeska
Arsenal Tivat
Mladost DG