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Jezero vs Dečić Prediction & Stats

Date: 01/11/2026
Time: 14:00
Jezero
Jezero
Vs
30%
34%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dečić
Dečić
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Defensive solidity will shape this encounter, with Jezero’s home form showing an average of 0.77 goals conceded and 1.08 scored, while Dečić, on the road, averages 1.07 conceded and 0.93 scored against similar opposition. The model projects a tight, low-scoring game, favouring a draw as the most likely outcome. The expected total is 1.9 goals, with the single most probable scoreline 0-0 at a 16.4% probability. Home win probability sits at 32%, draw at 35%, and away win at 34%. The model’s selections lean heavily on low-goal totals: Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.7%), Under 5.5 (98.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 4.5 (95.6%), Home under 2.5 goals (93.3%), and Away under 2.5 goals (92.5%). Jezero enters after a defeat to Dečić, while Dečić arrives on a four-game winning streak, adding a narrative edge to the evenly matched contest.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Jezero win
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
34.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dečić win
35.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

JezeroJezero

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D02L02L30W51W00D10W03L00D12LH·MLA16/05A·JED20/05H·MOR24/05H·ISK29/05A·ISK03/06H·MOR02/08H·MLA09/08A·PET16/08H·SUT22/08A·DEČ30/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.131.000.691.001.64
vs Stronger (5)0.600.800.670.330.501.50
vs Similar (25)1.081.201.080.771.081.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DečićDečić

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D30W03L12L01L00D20W10W30W21WA·PET02/05H·JEZ10/05A·SUT16/05H·ARS20/05A·BOK24/05H·ARS02/08A·BUD08/08H·BOK17/08A·OTR23/08H·JEZ30/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.001.400.931.001.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)1.070.961.210.860.931.07
vs Weaker (2)3.001.504.002.002.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%16%026%128%217%38%43%51%6+
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
57.9%
Under 1.5
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
29.6%
Under 2.5
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
12.5%
Under 3.5
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
38.8%
No
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.3%
1-1
14.8%
0-1
13.6%
1-0
12.1%
0-2
7.5%
1-2
6.7%
2-1
6.0%
2-0
6.0%
Jezero goals ↓
Dečić goals →
01234
016%14%7.5%2.5%0.6%
112%15%6.7%2.2%0.6%
26.0%6.0%3.0%1.0%0.3%
31.8%1.8%0.9%0.3%0.1%
40.4%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jezero goals (down), columns = Dečić goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Dečić
2.60
Mornar
2.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Bokelj
1.33
Petrovac
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
0.80
Arsenal Tivat
0.80
Mladost DG
0.80
Jezero is 1.60 points worse than Dečić in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.60).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dečić
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mornar
1.33
Sutjeska
1.20
Mladost DG
1.00
Petrovac
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica
0.40
Jezero
0.40
Bokelj
0.33
Arsenal Tivat
0.20
Jezero is 1.20 goals worse than Dečić in terms of goals scored per game (0.40 vs 1.60).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.20
Arsenal Tivat
0.40
Petrovac
0.40
Bokelj
0.50
Mornar
0.67
Buducnost Podgorica
0.80
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mladost DG
2.00
Jezero is 0.80 goals worse than Dečić in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.20).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Jezero or Draw
64.5%
Avg Implied -
30%
34%
36%
covers Jezero + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jezero or Dečić
65.5%
Avg Implied -
30%
34%
36%
covers Jezero + Dečić
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dečić
70.0%
Avg Implied -
30%
34%
36%
covers Draw + Dečić
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Jezero over/under 0.5
Over
59.3%
Under
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5
Over
22.7%
Under
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 0.5
Over
63.2%
Under
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5
Over
26.4%
Under
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 3.5
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Jezero, so a minus line means Jezero give that many goals of a start and Dečić receive them. At -1, Jezero must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Jezero win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Jezero)
Jezero -2
2.8%
Draw -2
8.1%
Dečić +2
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Jezero)
Jezero -1
10.9%
Draw -1
19.1%
Dečić +1
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Jezero)
Jezero +1
64.5%
Draw +1
21.5%
Dečić -1
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Jezero)
Jezero +2
86.0%
Draw +2
10.0%
Dečić -2
4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

JezeroJezero

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D01L20W20W00D10W00D00D11DH·MLA16/05A·JED20/05H·MOR24/05H·ISK29/05A·ISK03/06H·MOR02/08H·MLA09/08A·PET16/08H·SUT22/08A·DEČ30/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.370.440.380.570.36
vs Stronger (5)0.200.400.330.330.000.50
vs Similar (25)0.560.360.460.380.670.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DečićDečić

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W10W01L00D00D00D10W00D00D11DA·PET02/05H·JEZ10/05A·SUT16/05H·ARS20/05A·BOK24/05H·ARS02/08A·BUD08/08H·BOK17/08A·OTR23/08H·JEZ30/08
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.300.470.400.530.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.430.290.360.360.500.21
vs Weaker (2)1.500.502.001.001.000.00
Clean sheet %73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jezero over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

JezeroJezero

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W02L01L10W31W00D00D03L00D01LH·MLA16/05A·JED20/05H·MOR24/05H·ISK29/05A·ISK03/06H·MOR02/08H·MLA09/08A·PET16/08H·SUT22/08A·DEČ30/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.770.560.310.431.29
vs Stronger (5)0.400.400.330.000.501.00
vs Similar (25)0.520.840.620.380.421.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DečićDečić

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L20W02L12L01L00D10W10W30W10WA·PET02/05H·JEZ10/05A·SUT16/05H·ARS20/05A·BOK24/05H·ARS02/08A·BUD08/08H·BOK17/08A·OTR23/08H·JEZ30/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.700.930.530.470.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.640.680.860.500.430.86
vs Weaker (2)1.501.002.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jezero over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.9%-------
Under 6.599.7%-------
Under 5.598.7%-------
Home under 3.5 goals98.7%-------
Away under 3.5 goals98.1%-------
Under 4.595.6%-------
Home under 2.5 goals93.7%-------
Away under 2.5 goals92.0%-------
Away +2 handicap89.1%-------
Under 3.587.5%-------
Home +2 handicap86.0%-------
Home under 1.5 goals77.3%-------
Away under 1.5 goals73.6%-------
Under 2.570.4%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
Jezero's squad is €2m less valuable than Dečić's (€1m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
Jezero and Dečić have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
Jezero and Dečić have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
Jezero's defence is €1m less valuable than Dečić's (€1m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
JEZ wins
2
Draws
4
DEČ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Jezero vs Dečić · H/A from JEZ
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26ADečić Vs JEZ2-1
10/05/26ADečić Vs JEZ3-0
11/03/26HJEZ Vs Dečić1-2
09/11/25ADečić Vs JEZ1-0
13/09/25HJEZ Vs Dečić4-0
10/05/25HJEZ Vs Dečić1-1
12/03/25ADečić Vs JEZ1-2
02/11/24HJEZ Vs Dečić1-1

JezeroJezero

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26ADečić Vs JEZ2-1
22/08/26HJEZ Vs Sutjeska0-0
16/08/26APetrovac Vs JEZ3-0
09/08/26HJEZ Vs Mladost DG1-0
02/08/26HJEZ Vs Mornar0-0
03/06/26AIskra (Montenegro) Vs JEZ1-5
29/05/26HJEZ Vs Iskra (Montenegro)3-0
24/05/26HJEZ Vs Mornar0-2
20/05/26AJedinstvo Vs JEZ2-0
16/05/26HJEZ Vs Mladost DG2-2

DečićDečić

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26HDEČ Vs Jezero2-1
23/08/26AOtrant-Olympic Vs DEČ0-3
17/08/26HDEČ Vs Bokelj1-0
08/08/26ABuducnost Podgorica Vs DEČ0-2
02/08/26HDEČ Vs Arsenal Tivat0-0
24/05/26ABokelj Vs DEČ1-0
20/05/26HDEČ Vs Arsenal Tivat1-2
16/05/26ASutjeska Vs DEČ3-0
10/05/26HDEČ Vs Jezero3-0
02/05/26APetrovac Vs DEČ1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Jezero
Jezero
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLDL1.32
HomeLWDWD1.56
AwayLLWLL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%40%28%
AVG goals2.282.122.44
Over 1.5 %70%68%72%
Over 2.5 %42%40%44%
Over 3.5 %18%16%20%
Scored1.121.241.00
Conceded1.160.881.44
BTTS46%48%44%
Clean Sheet32%44%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Dečić
Dečić
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW1.44
HomeWLDWW1.69
AwayDLLWW1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%46%29%
AVG goals2.442.622.25
Over 1.5 %68%65%71%
Over 2.5 %46%50%42%
Over 3.5 %22%31%12%
Scored1.241.500.96
Conceded1.201.121.29
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet32%38%25%
Corners14.0017.0011.00
Cards3.506.001.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1DečićDečić513
80%
2.6
81+7
1.8
60%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.60.2
-
2MornarMornar612
50%
2.0
84+4
2.0
67%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.30.7
-
3BokeljBokelj68
33%
1.3
23-1
0.8
17%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.30.5
-
4Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic57
40%
1.4
77+0
2.8
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.4
-
5PetrovacPetrovac56
20%
1.2
42+2
1.2
40%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.80.4
-
6Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica55
20%
1.0
24-2
1.2
40%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1120.40.8
-
7JezeroJezero55
20%
1.0
25-3
1.4
40%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.41.0
-
8SutjeskaSutjeska54
20%
0.8
67-1
2.6
40%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.21.4
-
9Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat54
0%
0.8
12-1
0.6
20%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1000.20.4
-
10Mladost DGMladost DG54
20%
0.8
510-5
3.0
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.02.0
-
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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