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Jezero vs Mornar Result & Analysis

Date: 23/09/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 0-1
Jezero
Jezero
Vs
46%
36%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mornar
Mornar
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

šŸŽÆ 1. Model Analysis

Jezero wināœ— Miss
45.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawāœ— Miss
35.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mornar wināœ“ Hit
18.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

āš½ 2. Goal Analysis

JezeroJezero

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W21W01L22D10W11D20W21W00D10WA·BUD21/05H·DEČ25/05H·SUT23/07A·ARS30/07H·JED05/08A·BUD13/08H·PET20/08A·MLA25/08H·DEČ03/09A·RUD16/09
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.830.800.401.001.27
vs Stronger (7)1.141.570.331.001.752.00
vs Similar (20)0.900.701.000.270.781.22
vs Weaker (3)0.330.000.000.000.500.00
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MornarMornar

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W20W00D11D11D01L13L43W00D00DH·BER30/05A·BER03/06A·PET22/07H·SUT30/07A·MLA05/08H·ARS12/08A·DEČ20/08H·JED26/08A·RUD03/09H·BUD16/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.971.070.800.731.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.641.050.640.820.641.27
vs Weaker (8)1.620.752.250.751.000.75
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%15%22%30%21%030%127%214%36%42%51%6+
The model estimates around 1.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (30%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
49.2%
Under 1.5
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
22.1%
Under 2.5
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
8.1%
Under 3.5
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
29.2%
No
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
21.1%
1-0
19.8%
1-1
13.0%
2-0
11.0%
0-1 āœ“
10.0%
2-1
6.2%
3-0
3.9%
1-2
3.3%
Jezero goals ↓
Mornar goals →
01234
021%10%3.1%0.6%0.1%
120%13%3.3%0.6%0.1%
211%6.2%1.7%0.3%0.0%
33.9%2.2%0.6%0.1%0.0%
41.0%0.6%0.2%0.0%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jezero goals (down), columns = Mornar goals (across).

šŸ’Ŗ 3. Team Strengths Analysis

šŸ† Total PPG

Points / game
Otrant-Olympic
2.00
Dečić
1.94
Mornar
1.78
Buducnost Podgorica
1.69
Sutjeska
1.47
Jezero
1.42
Petrovac
1.33
Arsenal Tivat
1.17
Jedinstvo
1.03
Mladost DG
0.92
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.75
Mladost LjeŔkopolje
0.50
Jezero is 0.36 points worse than Mornar in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.78).

āš”ļø Attack

Goals scored / game
Buducnost Podgorica
1.83
Dečić
1.53
Otrant-Olympic
1.50
Sutjeska
1.28
Mornar
1.25
Jedinstvo
1.21
Arsenal Tivat
1.19
Petrovac
1.17
Jezero
1.14
Mladost DG
1.03
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.69
Mladost LjeŔkopolje
0.50
Jezero is 0.11 goals worse than Mornar in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.25).

šŸ›”ļø Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.75
Mornar
0.89
Sutjeska
1.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.00
Jezero
1.06
Petrovac
1.11
Buducnost Podgorica
1.19
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.50
Jedinstvo
1.50
Mladost LjeŔkopolje
1.50
Arsenal Tivat
1.61
Mladost DG
1.63
Jezero is 0.17 goals worse than Mornar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 0.89).

ā±ļø Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

šŸŽ² 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

šŸ”€ 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

šŸ„… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

āš–ļø 7. Handicap

ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U

JezeroJezero

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W01L11D00D00D00D20W00D10WA·BUD21/05H·DEČ25/05H·SUT23/07A·ARS30/07H·JED05/08A·BUD13/08H·PET20/08A·MLA25/08H·DEČ03/09A·RUD16/09
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.270.270.130.400.40
vs Stronger (7)0.290.570.000.670.500.50
vs Similar (20)0.350.200.360.000.330.44
vs Weaker (3)0.330.000.000.000.500.00
Clean sheet %77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MornarMornar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W00D10W00D00D11D22D00D00DH·BER30/05A·BER03/06A·PET22/07H·SUT30/07A·MLA05/08H·ARS12/08A·DEČ20/08H·JED26/08A·RUD03/09H·BUD16/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.300.330.330.470.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.270.320.090.270.450.36
vs Weaker (8)0.750.251.000.500.500.00
Clean sheet %73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jezero over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U

JezeroJezero

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W11D00D11D10W11D20W01L00D00DA·BUD21/05H·DEČ25/05H·SUT23/07A·ARS30/07H·JED05/08A·BUD13/08H·PET20/08A·MLA25/08H·DEČ03/09A·RUD16/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.570.530.270.600.87
vs Stronger (7)0.861.000.330.331.251.50
vs Similar (20)0.550.500.640.270.440.78
vs Weaker (3)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MornarMornar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W00D01L11D01L02L21W00D00DH·BER30/05A·BER03/06A·PET22/07H·SUT30/07A·MLA05/08H·ARS12/08A·DEČ20/08H·JED26/08A·RUD03/09H·BUD16/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.670.730.470.270.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.360.730.550.550.180.91
vs Weaker (8)0.880.501.250.250.500.75
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jezero over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ”„ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.591.9%-------āœ“ Hit
Under 2.577.9%-------āœ“ Hit
BTTS No70.8%-------āœ“ Hit

šŸ’° 14. Squad value

šŸ’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
Jezero's squad is €3m less valuable than Mornar's (€1m vs €4m).

āš”ļø Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Jezero and Mornar have a similar attack value (both €0m).

šŸ§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
Jezero and Mornar have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

šŸ›”ļø Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
JED (10)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
Jezero's defence is €1m less valuable than Mornar's (€1m vs €2m).

šŸ¤ 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
JEZ wins
1
Draws
2
MOR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Jezero vs Mornar · H/A from JEZ
DateH/AGameScore
07/05/23AMornar Vs JEZ1-0
08/03/23HJEZ Vs Mornar0-0
06/11/22AMornar Vs JEZ1-0
27/08/22HJEZ Vs Mornar3-1

JezeroJezero

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/09/23ARudar (Montenegro) Vs JEZ0-1
03/09/23HJEZ Vs Dečić0-0
25/08/23AMladost DG Vs JEZ1-2
20/08/23HJEZ Vs Petrovac2-0
13/08/23ABuducnost Podgorica Vs JEZ1-1
05/08/23HJEZ Vs Jedinstvo1-0
30/07/23AArsenal Tivat Vs JEZ2-2
23/07/23HJEZ Vs Sutjeska0-1
25/05/23HJEZ Vs Dečić2-1
21/05/23ABuducnost Podgorica Vs JEZ1-3

MornarMornar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/09/23HMOR Vs Buducnost Podgorica0-0
03/09/23ARudar (Montenegro) Vs MOR0-0
26/08/23HMOR Vs Jedinstvo4-3
20/08/23ADečić Vs MOR3-1
12/08/23HMOR Vs Arsenal Tivat0-1
05/08/23AMladost DG Vs MOR1-1
30/07/23HMOR Vs Sutjeska1-1
22/07/23APetrovac Vs MOR0-0
03/06/23ABerane Vs MOR0-2
30/05/23HMOR Vs Berane2-0

šŸ“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Jezero
Jezero
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWDW1.32
HomeWLWWD1.77
AwayWDDWW0.86
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%45%18%
AVG goals1.981.642.32
Over 1.5 %59%50%68%
Over 2.5 %39%32%45%
Over 3.5 %14%14%14%
Scored1.001.050.95
Conceded0.980.591.36
BTTS50%36%64%
Clean Sheet34%55%14%
Corners---
Cards---
Mornar
Mornar
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDD1.22
HomeWDLWD1.57
AwayWDDLD0.87
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%43%17%
AVG goals1.981.872.09
Over 1.5 %52%39%65%
Over 2.5 %30%26%35%
Over 3.5 %20%17%22%
Scored0.891.040.74
Conceded1.090.831.35
BTTS41%30%52%
Clean Sheet37%43%30%
Corners---
Cards---

šŸ† 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ā‚¬mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1DečićDečić3670
56%
1.9
5527+28
2.3
69%
36%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.50.8
-
2MornarMornar3664
47%
1.8
4532+13
2.1
50%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.20.9
-
3Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3661
47%
1.7
6643+23
3.0
86%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.81.2
-
4SutjeskaSutjeska3653
36%
1.5
4636+10
2.3
67%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.31.0
-
5JezeroJezero3651
39%
1.4
4138+3
2.2
64%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.1
-
6PetrovacPetrovac3648
31%
1.3
4240+2
2.3
69%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.1
-
7Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3642
25%
1.2
4358-15
2.8
83%
47%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.21.6
-
8JedinstvoJedinstvo3839
24%
1.0
4657-11
2.7
74%
45%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.5
-
9Mladost DGMladost DG3835
24%
0.9
3962-23
2.7
76%
55%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.6
-
10Rudar (Montenegro)Rudar (Montenegro)3627
19%
0.8
2554-29
2.2
58%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.5
-
11Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic24
50%
2.0
32+1
2.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.0
-
12Mladost LjeŔkopoljeMladost LjeŔkopolje21
0%
0.5
13-2
2.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.5
-
Montenegro: First League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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