Jezero vs Mornar Result & Analysis

Date: 02/08/2026

Time: 18:00

Final 0-0

Jezero

33%

32%

35%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Mornar

Montenegro: First League

Referee: -

1 Model Analysis 2 Goal Analysis 3 Team Strengths Analysis 4 Props Analysis 5 Double Chance 6 Home & Away Over/Under 7 Handicap 8 Half Time Goals O/U 9 Half Time Home & Away O/U 10 Top picks for this game 11 Squad value 12 Games History 13 Overall Statistics 14 League Table

Match preview & prediction

In the Montenegro: First League match between Jezero and Mornar, Mornar's recent unbeaten streak is a notable storyline, having drawn against Arsenal Tivat in their last outing. However, Jezero is coming off a win against Mladost DG, where they scored a single goal.

Defensively, Jezero has been solid at home, conceding an average of 1 goal per game against similar opponents, while scoring 1.14 goals on average. Mornar, on the other hand, has been relatively stingy away from home, conceding 0.67 goals per game against similar opponents, but scoring 1.33 goals on average.

The model predicts a low-scoring match, with a 35% chance of an away win and a 32% chance of a draw. The expected total goals is 2.2, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1, occurring 14.8% of the time.

The model's selection is the away win, with an 82.4% chance of an Under 3.5 goal total being hit, providing a 2% edge. The model's other selections are the Under 3.5 goal total, the draw, and the away win, with probabilities of 82.4%, 32%, and 33% respectively.

Results analysis

The draw between Jezero and Mornar was a major upset, given Mornar's unbeaten run in their last 5 matches. The actual result was a 0-0 scoreline, which was one of the most likely outcomes according to the model, with a 12.7% probability. The model's selection, Mornar's away win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 35%. The model's call on Under 3.5 total goals also came to fruition, with an 82.4% probability of hitting, and it indeed did. The win extends Jezero's run of coming off a win, having beaten Mladost DG 1-0 in their previous match.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Jezero win✗ Miss

33.4%

Avg Implied 20.2% · @ 4.49

Edge

+13.2%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

4.83

1xBet

4.70

Marathonbet

4.60

BetVictor

4.60

Dafabet

4.60

Draw✓ Hit

32.0%

Avg Implied 29.2% · @ 3.11

Edge

+2.8%

Best 5 market prices

Bet365

3.20

Betano

3.20

Dafabet

3.20

Pinnacle

3.15

BetVictor

3.13

Mornar win✗ Miss

34.6%

Avg Implied 50.6% · @ 1.80

Edge

-16.0%

Best 5 market prices

Dafabet

1.82

Pinnacle

1.81

William Hil

1.80

Bet365

1.80

BetVictor

1.80

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Jezero

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.6

Avg scored

1.4

Avg conceded

1.2

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.07	1.30	1.14	1.00	1.00	1.56
vs Stronger (19)	0.84	1.58	1.11	1.33	0.60	1.80
vs Similar (11)	1.45	0.82	1.20	0.40	1.67	1.17
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	23% (-8pp vs league)

This opponent (Mornar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Mornar

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.7

Avg scored

1.4

Avg conceded

0.3

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.43	0.60	1.69	0.56	1.14	0.64
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (20)	1.35	0.50	1.45	0.36	1.22	0.67
vs Weaker (10)	1.60	0.80	2.20	1.00	1.00	0.60
Clean sheet %	53% (+22pp vs league)

This opponent (Jezero) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under

Over 1.5

65.3%

@ 1.45+2.0%

Under 1.5

34.7%

@ 2.50-2.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

BetVictor

1.48

Pinnacle

1.48

Superbet

1.47

Betano

1.44

Betfair

1.44

Under

Betfair

2.60

Pinnacle

2.56

Superbet

2.52

1xBet

2.49

Marathonbet

2.49

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

37.1%

@ 2.38-1.5%

Under 2.5

62.9%

@ 1.50+1.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.50

Superbet

2.45

1xBet

2.41

Marathonbet

2.41

Betfair

2.40

Under

Bet365

1.53

BetVictor

1.51

Pinnacle

1.50

Betano

1.50

Betfair

1.50

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under

Over 3.5

17.6%

@ 4.66-2.1%

Under 3.5

82.4%

@ 1.14+2.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

5.20

BetVictor

5.00

Marathonbet

4.65

1xBet

4.65

Superbet

4.60

Under

Betano

1.18

Superbet

1.16

Betfair

1.13

BetVictor

1.13

1xBet

1.12

Both teams to scoreActual: No

Yes

45.3%

@ 2.16+2.7%

54.7%

@ 1.60-2.7%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

Superbet

2.22

BetVictor

2.20

Betfair

2.20

1xBet

2.15

Marathonbet

2.15

William Hil

1.62

BetVictor

1.60

1xBet

1.60

Betfair

1.60

Betano

1.60

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1

14.8%@ 6.10+7.9%

0-0 ✓

12.7%@ 6.44+6.1%

0-1

11.1%@ 5.01+2.7%

1-0

10.9%@ 8.93+6.1%

1-2

7.4%@ 8.37+2.3%

2-1

7.2%@ 14.57+4.3%

0-2

6.9%@ 6.85+0.7%

2-0

6.6%@ 20.43+4.5%

Jezero goals ↓

	Mornar goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	13%	11%	6.9%	2.5%	0.7%
1	11%	15%	7.4%	2.7%	0.7%
2	6.6%	7.2%	4.0%	1.5%	0.4%
3	2.4%	2.6%	1.4%	0.5%	0.1%
4	0.6%	0.7%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jezero goals (down), columns = Mornar goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Sutjeska

2.00

Mornar

1.92

Dečić

1.42

Petrovac

1.42

Buducnost Podgorica

1.33

Mladost DG

1.28

Arsenal Tivat

1.28

Jezero

1.24

Bokelj

1.05

Otrant-Olympic

1.01

Jezero is 0.68 points worse than Mornar in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 1.92).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Sutjeska

1.69

Mornar

1.42

Mladost DG

1.36

Petrovac

1.22

Jezero

1.21

Dečić

1.19

Bokelj

1.05

Buducnost Podgorica

1.00

Arsenal Tivat

1.00

Otrant-Olympic

0.87

Jezero is 0.21 goals worse than Mornar in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.42).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Mornar

0.81

Buducnost Podgorica

0.97

Sutjeska

1.00

Petrovac

1.00

Dečić

1.25

Bokelj

1.26

Arsenal Tivat

1.28

Jezero

1.29

Mladost DG

1.50

Otrant-Olympic

1.66

Jezero is 0.48 goals worse than Mornar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 0.81).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Jezero

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.1

Avg scored

0.7

Avg conceded

0.4

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.43	0.50	0.43	0.57	0.44	0.44
vs Stronger (19)	0.21	0.74	0.22	0.89	0.20	0.60
vs Similar (11)	0.82	0.09	0.80	0.00	0.83	0.17
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	67% (+36pp vs league)

This opponent (Mornar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Mornar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

0.9

Avg scored

0.7

Avg conceded

0.2

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.60	0.23	0.62	0.31	0.57	0.14
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (20)	0.55	0.25	0.36	0.27	0.78	0.22
vs Weaker (10)	0.70	0.20	1.20	0.40	0.20	0.00
Clean sheet %	77% (+46pp vs league)

This opponent (Jezero) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under

Over 0.5

0.0%

Under 0.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under

Over 1.5

0.0%

Under 1.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

0.0%

Under 2.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.

Jezero over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Jezero over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Jezero over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Mornar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Mornar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Mornar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Min odds1.20

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Under 3.5	82.4%	1.14	Betano 1.18	Superbet 1.16	Betfair 1.13	BetVictor 1.13	1xBet 1.12	+2.1%	✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SUT (23)

€5m

DEČ (19)

€4m

BP (21)

€3m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SUT (9)

€2m

DEČ (8)

€1m

BP (6)

€1m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

BP (5)

€1m

SUT (5)

€1m

DEČ (3)

€1m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SUT (9)

€2m

DEČ (8)

€2m

BP (10)

€2m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

Head-to-head

Jezero vs Mornar · H/A from JEZ

Date	H/A	Game	Score
24/05/26	H	JEZ Vs Mornar	0-2
04/04/26	A	Mornar Vs JEZ	2-0
06/12/25	H	JEZ Vs Mornar	2-1
27/09/25	A	Mornar Vs JEZ	2-2
12/04/25	A	Mornar Vs JEZ	0-1
22/02/25	H	JEZ Vs Mornar	1-2
06/10/24	A	Mornar Vs JEZ	2-0
18/09/24	H	JEZ Vs Mornar	2-2

Jezero

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
03/06/26	A	Iskra (Montenegro) Vs JEZ	1-5
29/05/26	H	JEZ Vs Iskra (Montenegro)	3-0
24/05/26	H	JEZ Vs Mornar	0-2
20/05/26	A	Jedinstvo Vs JEZ	2-0
16/05/26	H	JEZ Vs Mladost DG	2-2
10/05/26	A	Dečić Vs JEZ	3-0
02/05/26	H	JEZ Vs Arsenal Tivat	0-0
26/04/26	A	Sutjeska Vs JEZ	1-1
18/04/26	A	Bokelj Vs JEZ	0-2
12/04/26	H	JEZ Vs Petrovac	1-1

Mornar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
24/05/26	A	Jezero Vs MOR	0-2
20/05/26	H	MOR Vs Petrovac	1-1
16/05/26	A	Buducnost Podgorica Vs MOR	0-0
10/05/26	H	MOR Vs Bokelj	0-0
02/05/26	H	MOR Vs Jedinstvo	3-0
26/04/26	A	Mladost DG Vs MOR	1-2
18/04/26	H	MOR Vs Dečić	1-0
12/04/26	A	Arsenal Tivat Vs MOR	0-1
08/04/26	H	MOR Vs Sutjeska	2-1
04/04/26	H	MOR Vs Jezero	2-0

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Jezero

Montenegro: First League

Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	DLLWW	1.38
Home	DDDLW	1.50
Away	WDLLW	1.25

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	36%	38%	33%
AVG goals	2.36	2.38	2.33
Over 1.5 %	74%	81%	67%
Over 2.5 %	40%	42%	38%
Over 3.5 %	20%	19%	21%
Scored	1.20	1.35	1.04
Conceded	1.16	1.04	1.29
BTTS	48%	54%	42%
Clean Sheet	30%	35%	25%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

Mornar

Montenegro: First League

Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Draws / 0 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WDDDW	1.68
Home	WWWDD	1.84
Away	WWWDW	1.52

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	48%	52%	44%
AVG goals	2.36	2.36	2.36
Over 1.5 %	74%	72%	76%
Over 2.5 %	46%	48%	44%
Over 3.5 %	14%	20%	8%
Scored	1.32	1.52	1.12
Conceded	1.04	0.84	1.24
BTTS	46%	48%	44%
Clean Sheet	38%	40%	36%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 14. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Dečić	3	7	67%	2.3	3	0	+3	1.0	33%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	4	1	1	2	1.0	0.0	-
2	Bokelj	3	6	67%	2.0	2	1	+1	1.0	0%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.7	0.3	-
3	Mornar	3	5	33%	1.7	3	2	+1	1.7	33%	33%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	0.7	-
4	Otrant-Olympic	3	4	33%	1.3	5	3	+2	2.7	67%	67%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.7	1.0	-
5	Petrovac	3	4	33%	1.3	3	1	+2	1.3	33%	33%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	0.3	-
6	Buducnost Podgorica	3	4	33%	1.3	1	2	-1	1.0	33%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	1	1	2	0.3	0.7	-
7	Jezero	3	4	33%	1.3	1	3	-2	1.3	33%	33%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.3	1.0	-
8	Arsenal Tivat	3	3	0%	1.0	0	0	+0	0.0	0%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.0	0.0	-
9	Mladost DG	3	3	33%	1.0	4	5	-1	3.0	67%	67%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.3	1.7	-
10	Sutjeska	3	0	0%	0.0	1	6	-5	2.3	33%	33%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	5	2	1	2	0.3	2.0	-

Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

← all matches

Jezero vs Mornar Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Jezero

Mornar

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Jezero

Mornar

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 12. Games History

Head-to-head

Jezero

Mornar

📊 13. Overall Statistics

🏆 14. League Table

A Pro feature