Jezero’s defensive record at home is solid, conceding only half a goal per game, yet they have struggled to find the net, scoring just 0.5 goals on average against stronger opposition. Sutjeska, on the other hand, boasts an attacking edge away, averaging 1.83 goals scored while keeping opponents to 0.67. The model sees a tight, low-scoring affair with an expected 2.0 goals. The most probable scoreline is 0-0, carrying a 14.9% chance, and the model’s favourite result is an away win. Home win odds sit at 28%, a draw at 33%, and an away win at 39%. The only suggested pick is Under 3.5 goals, with an 85.7% probability. The recent form narrative is clear: Jezero, fresh from a defeat, faces a Sutjeska side that just celebrated a 5-1 victory.
Results analysis
The win extends Sutjeska’s run, coming off a 5-1 triumph, while Jezero, still recovering from a defeat, finished their last five with only one victory. The final score was 0-1, confirming the away win that the model had predicted. The pre-match favourite was the Away win, assigned a 39% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The sole suggested pick, Under 3.5 goals, had an 85.7% probability and hit, as the match produced only one goal. All figures are drawn from the data, and no other selections were mentioned.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Jezero win✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska win✓ Hit
38.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Jezero
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.00
0.71
0.50
0.88
1.44
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
1.29
0.50
0.50
2.00
2.33
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.95
0.89
0.56
0.64
1.27
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sutjeska
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.00
2.31
1.12
1.79
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.71
0.94
1.67
0.89
1.75
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
2.54
1.08
3.14
1.43
1.83
0.67
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
60.8%
Under 1.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
32.4%
Under 2.5
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.3%
Under 3.5
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.0%
No
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
14.9%
1-1
14.7%
0-1 ✓
13.5%
1-0
10.9%
0-2
8.2%
1-2
7.4%
2-1
6.0%
2-0
5.5%
Jezero goals ↓
Sutjeska goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
14%
8.2%
3.0%
0.8%
1
11%
15%
7.4%
2.7%
0.7%
2
5.5%
6.0%
3.3%
1.2%
0.3%
3
1.7%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jezero goals (down), columns = Sutjeska goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Otrant-Olympic
2.00
Dečić
1.94
Mornar
1.78
Buducnost Podgorica
1.69
Sutjeska
1.47
Jezero
1.42
Petrovac
1.33
Arsenal Tivat
1.17
Jedinstvo
1.03
Mladost DG
0.92
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.75
Mladost Lješkopolje
0.50
Jezero is 0.06 points worse than Sutjeska in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Buducnost Podgorica
1.83
Dečić
1.53
Otrant-Olympic
1.50
Sutjeska
1.28
Mornar
1.25
Jedinstvo
1.21
Arsenal Tivat
1.19
Petrovac
1.17
Jezero
1.14
Mladost DG
1.03
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.69
Mladost Lješkopolje
0.50
Jezero is 0.14 goals worse than Sutjeska in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.28).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.75
Mornar
0.89
Sutjeska
1.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.00
Jezero
1.06
Petrovac
1.11
Buducnost Podgorica
1.19
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.50
Jedinstvo
1.50
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.50
Arsenal Tivat
1.61
Mladost DG
1.63
Jezero is 0.06 goals worse than Sutjeska in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Jezero
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.43
0.29
0.14
0.25
0.69
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.43
0.00
0.25
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (20)
0.30
0.45
0.44
0.11
0.18
0.73
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sutjeska
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.27
0.88
0.38
0.86
0.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.24
0.44
0.22
1.00
0.25
vs Weaker (13)
1.08
0.31
1.43
0.57
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jezero over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Jezero
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.43
0.36
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
0.86
0.50
0.25
1.33
1.67
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.50
0.44
0.44
0.45
0.55
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sutjeska
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.73
1.44
0.75
0.93
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.00
0.71
1.22
0.67
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (13)
1.46
0.77
1.71
0.86
1.17
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jezero over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
Jezero's squad is €4m less valuable than Sutjeska's (€1m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Jezero's attack is €2m less valuable than Sutjeska's (€0m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
Jezero and Sutjeska have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
JED (10)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
Jezero's defence is €1m less valuable than Sutjeska's (€1m vs €2m).
Montenegro: First League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dečić
Mornar
Buducnost Podgorica
Petrovac
Arsenal Tivat
Jedinstvo
Mladost DG
Rudar (Montenegro)
Otrant-Olympic
Mladost Lješkopolje