The contest between JFK Ventspils and Skanste is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are 37 % for a JFK victory, 28 % for a draw and 35 % for Skanste. The average goal tally sits at 2.8, but the most likely total is two goals, a 25 % chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.1 % probability, reflecting the tight nature of the match.
JFK Ventspils, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded. Skanste, on the road, averages 0.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded against similar opposition. Recent form shows JFK slipping after two defeats, while Skanste has just drawn, both ending 0-2 and 1-1 respectively.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.2 %), Under 6.5 (97.5 %), Away under 3.5 goals (94.9 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.3 %), Under 5.5 (93.5 %), Under 4.5 (84.7 %), Away under 2.5 goals (84.0 %) and Home +2 handicap (83.5 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
JFK Ventspils win
37.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Skanste win
34.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
JFK Ventspils
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.27
1.47
1.24
1.38
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.42
1.25
1.71
1.14
1.00
1.40
vs Weaker (18)
1.44
1.28
1.30
1.30
1.62
1.25
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Skanste) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Skanste
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.63
2.06
1.50
1.29
1.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.80
1.17
1.50
0.75
2.25
vs Weaker (20)
2.05
1.55
2.60
1.50
1.50
1.60
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.9%
Under 1.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.4%
Under 2.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.3%
Under 3.5
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.7%
No
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.1%
1-0
7.8%
0-0
7.7%
0-1
7.5%
2-0
6.3%
0-2
5.8%
JFK Ventspils goals ↓
Skanste goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
7.5%
5.8%
2.6%
0.9%
1
7.8%
13%
8.1%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.3%
8.5%
5.7%
2.5%
0.8%
3
2.9%
3.9%
2.6%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.0%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = JFK Ventspils goals (down), columns = Skanste goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
JFK Ventspils is 1.27 points worse than Skanste in terms of average points per game (0.40 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
JFK Ventspils is 2.03 goals worse than Skanste in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 2.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
JFK Ventspils is 0.03 goals better than Skanste in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
JFK Ventspils or Draw
65.2%
Avg Implied -
37%
28%
35%
covers JFK Ventspils + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils or Skanste
71.9%
Avg Implied -
37%
28%
35%
covers JFK Ventspils + Skanste
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Skanste
62.8%
Avg Implied -
37%
28%
35%
covers Draw + Skanste
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5
Over
75.2%
Under
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5
Over
40.6%
Under
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5
Over
16.5%
Under
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 3.5
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 0.5
Over
73.8%
Under
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 1.5
Over
38.7%
Under
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 2.5
Over
15.2%
Under
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 3.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to JFK Ventspils, so a minus line means JFK Ventspils give that many goals of a start and Skanste receive them. At -1, JFK Ventspils must win by two or more to land; a one-goal JFK Ventspils win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (JFK Ventspils)
JFK Ventspils -2
6.5%
Draw -2
11.3%
Skanste +2
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (JFK Ventspils)
JFK Ventspils -1
17.8%
Draw -1
19.4%
Skanste +1
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (JFK Ventspils)
JFK Ventspils +1
65.2%
Draw +1
18.6%
Skanste -1
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (JFK Ventspils)
JFK Ventspils +2
83.8%
Draw +2
10.4%
Skanste -2
5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
JFK Ventspils
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.71
0.41
0.54
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.58
0.86
0.43
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (18)
0.56
0.44
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Skanste) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Skanste
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.10
0.94
1.00
0.50
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.90
0.50
0.67
0.25
1.25
vs Weaker (20)
0.90
1.20
1.20
1.20
0.60
1.20
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
JFK Ventspils
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.77
0.76
0.82
0.85
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.67
0.86
0.71
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (18)
0.89
0.83
0.70
0.90
1.12
0.75
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Skanste) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Skanste
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.53
1.12
0.50
0.79
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.90
0.67
0.83
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.15
0.35
1.40
0.30
0.90
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valmiera / BSS
Metta / LU
Leevon / PPK
JDFS Alberts
Riga Mariners
Mārupe
Smiltene
Super Nova 2
Riga FC II
Tukums II
Rīgas FS II
Rēzekne FA