This highly anticipated matchup between JFK Ventspils and Smiltene is shaping up to be an extremely closely contested affair. Smiltene's recent form, coming off a 1-4 defeat to Valmiera / BSS, shows they're still reeling from that loss, while JFK Ventspils are struggling to find consistency, having suffered two consecutive defeats. These recent setbacks have made it difficult to predict a clear favourite, but the model's selection is a home win, with a 41% chance of success.
The expected total goals for this match stands at 3.1, indicating a potentially high-scoring encounter. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.9% probability. In terms of home and away form, JFK Ventspils have been scoring an average of 2.25 goals at home, while conceding just 0.75. Smiltene, on the other hand, have struggled to find the back of the net away from home, averaging just 1.4 goals, while conceding 1.4.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 goals, which is expected to hit with an 82.6% probability, offering a 1% edge. The home win percentage stands at 41%, while the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 33%.
Results analysis
In a shocking turn of events, Smiltene stunned the pre-match favourite, JFK Ventspils, with a 1-2 win on the road. The away win extends Smiltene's run of mixed results, having come off a 1-4 defeat in their previous outing. Meanwhile, JFK Ventspils' winless streak continues, following two straight defeats, including a 0-2 loss to Super Nova 2. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect, as it predicted a 41% chance of success. The model's call was wrong. The model's selection, Home win, was not the favourite. The model's other selection, Over 1.5, hit, with an 82.6% probability.
šÆ 1. Model Analysis
JFK Ventspils winā Miss
41.0%
Avg Implied 58.4% · @ 1.54
Edge
-17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.57
Dafabet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Drawā Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied 22.6% · @ 3.98
Edge
+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.15
Betano
4.05
Dafabet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Smiltene winā Hit
33.1%
Avg Implied 19.0% · @ 4.74
Edge
+14.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.17
Marathonbet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
William Hil
4.80
Dafabet
4.70
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
JFK Ventspils
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.13
1.69
1.06
1.36
1.21
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
1.60
1.00
2.20
0.80
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (17)
1.71
1.24
1.78
1.22
1.62
1.25
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Smiltene
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.87
1.94
2.19
1.57
1.50
vs Stronger (8)
1.50
1.62
2.00
2.25
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
2.12
1.62
2.33
1.67
1.86
1.57
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
2.83
0.67
3.67
1.67
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.6%
@ 1.12+0.9%
Under 1.5
17.4%
@ 5.00-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.12
Under
1xBet
5.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.9%
@ 1.45-3.3%
Under 2.5
40.1%
@ 2.49+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Under
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.49
1xBet
2.49
Superbet
2.47
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.5%
@ 2.08-6.2%
Under 3.5
62.5%
@ 1.62+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Betano
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Under
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Superbet
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.0%
@ 1.51+2.2%
No
37.0%
@ 2.34-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.51
1xBet
1.51
William Hil
1.50
No
William Hil
2.38
Superbet
2.35
1xBet
2.34
Marathonbet
2.29
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%@ 7.42+6.3%
2-1
8.8%@ 7.33+3.2%
1-2 ā
7.9%@ 13.33+4.8%
2-2
6.5%@ 11.45+2.9%
1-0
6.3%@ 8.95+1.7%
2-0
6.1%@ 8.80+1.4%
0-0
5.6%@ 15.50+2.9%
0-1
5.5%@ 15.83+2.9%
JFK Ventspils goals ↓
Smiltene goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
5.5%
4.8%
2.3%
0.9%
1
6.3%
12%
7.9%
3.8%
1.4%
2
6.1%
8.8%
6.5%
3.1%
1.1%
3
3.3%
4.8%
3.5%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.4%
2.0%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = JFK Ventspils goals (down), columns = Smiltene goals (across).
šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
Riga Mariners
2.23
JDFS Alberts
2.23
Metta / LU
1.84
Super Nova 2
1.84
JFK Ventspils
1.65
RÄ«gas FS II
1.58
Skanste
1.54
Valmiera / BSS
1.40
Leevon / PPK
1.38
MÄrupe
1.23
RÄzekne FA
1.19
Smiltene
1.08
Riga FC II
0.92
Tukums II
0.88
JFK Ventspils is 0.58 points better than Smiltene in terms of average points per game (1.65 vs 1.08).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
Riga Mariners
2.85
JDFS Alberts
2.31
Metta / LU
2.19
Super Nova 2
2.19
RÄ«gas FS II
1.77
Smiltene
1.77
Valmiera / BSS
1.66
Leevon / PPK
1.54
JFK Ventspils
1.54
Tukums II
1.42
Skanste
1.38
RÄzekne FA
1.38
Riga FC II
1.35
MÄrupe
1.15
JFK Ventspils is 0.23 goals worse than Smiltene in terms of goals scored per game (1.54 vs 1.77).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
JDFS Alberts
0.92
JFK Ventspils
1.12
RÄ«gas FS II
1.19
Metta / LU
1.26
Super Nova 2
1.26
MÄrupe
1.27
Riga Mariners
1.31
Skanste
1.50
Leevon / PPK
1.54
Riga FC II
1.65
Valmiera / BSS
1.66
Smiltene
1.85
RÄzekne FA
2.19
Tukums II
2.31
JFK Ventspils is 0.73 goals better than Smiltene in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.85).
ā±ļø Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
š² 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
š 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
āļø 7. Handicap
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
JFK Ventspils
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.75
0.25
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.40
1.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (17)
0.65
0.35
0.78
0.22
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Smiltene
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.93
1.12
1.00
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
0.75
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (16)
1.06
0.88
1.44
0.78
0.57
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
1.33
0.33
1.67
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
JFK Ventspils
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.73
0.94
0.81
0.86
0.64
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.60
1.20
0.60
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (17)
1.06
0.88
1.00
1.00
1.12
0.75
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Smiltene
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.93
0.81
1.19
1.14
0.64
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
0.88
1.00
1.25
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (16)
1.06
0.75
0.89
0.89
1.29
0.57
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
1.50
0.33
2.00
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
82.6%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-
+0.9%
ā Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valmiera / BSS
Metta / LU
Leevon / PPK
JDFS Alberts
Riga Mariners
Skanste
MÄrupe
Super Nova 2
Riga FC II
Tukums II
RÄ«gas FS II
RÄzekne FA