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JFK Ventspils vs Super Nova 2 Result & Analysis

Date: 08/08/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 0-2
JFK Ventspils
JFK Ventspils
Vs
41%
27%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Super Nova 2
Super Nova 2
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

This highly anticipated match between JFK Ventspils and Super Nova 2 in the Latvia: 1. Liga promises to be a closely contested encounter. Notably, JFK Ventspils is coming off a defeat, having lost 1-2 to Smiltene, while Super Nova 2 suffered a 0-3 loss to Riga Mariners. These recent setbacks have left both teams with a lot to prove, making this match finely balanced.

The statistics suggest that JFK Ventspils is the favourite to win, with a 41% chance of a home win, followed by a 27% chance of a draw and a 33% chance of an away win. The model's selection is indeed a home win. On average, we can expect 3 goals to be scored in this match.

The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.4%. JFK Ventspils has been scoring an average of 2.5 goals at home against weaker opponents, while conceding 0.83 goals. In contrast, Super Nova 2 has been scoring 1 goal away against stronger opponents and conceding 1.5 goals. The model suggests Over 1.5 goals with a probability of 80.6%, indicating a high-scoring match.

Results analysis

In a shocking turn of events, Super Nova 2 defeated JFK Ventspils 0-2, extending their recent form run with a win following two straight defeats. This result marks a surprise upset, as the win extends JFK Ventspils' run of not conceding a goal at home. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 41%. The model's call was wrong, as the pre-match favourite failed to come through. The model's selection of Home win had a pre-match probability of 41%, while the model's selection of Over 1.5 hit, with a probability of 80.6%.

šŸŽÆ 1. Model Analysis

JFK Ventspils wināœ— Miss
40.6%
Avg Implied 44.8% · @ 2.00
Edge
-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.05
Dafabet
2.05
Betano
2.02
1xBet
2.01
William Hil
2.00
Drawāœ— Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied 25.5% · @ 3.52
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.60
10Bet
3.60
Betano
3.55
Marathonbet
3.52
Super Nova 2 wināœ“ Hit
32.7%
Avg Implied 29.6% · @ 3.03
Edge
+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.12
10Bet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.06
Dafabet
3.05
Superbet
3.05

āš½ 2. Goal Analysis

JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D02L02L22D00D10W23L13L11D12LA·SMI20/09H·RÄŖG27/09A·JDF05/10H·RIG19/10A·SKA25/10H·MĀR01/11A·LEE08/11H·JDF18/07A·RIG25/07H·SMI02/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.171.501.121.361.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.291.071.501.001.001.17
vs Weaker (16)1.561.251.501.251.621.25
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Super Nova 2Super Nova 2

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L11D03LA·RIG19/07A·JDF25/07H·RIG31/07
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.672.000.003.001.001.50
vs Stronger (2)0.502.500.003.001.002.00
vs Similar (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %0% (-26pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.6%
@ 1.14+1.7%
Under 1.5
19.4%
@ 4.27-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Under
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.30
Superbet
4.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.8%
@ 1.55-2.2%
Under 2.5
43.2%
@ 2.23+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.60
1xBet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.55
Under
Bet365
2.30
10Bet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.23
1xBet
2.23
Pinnacle
2.22
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.4%
@ 2.32-4.7%
Under 3.5
65.6%
@ 1.49+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.37
Marathonbet
2.35
1xBet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.35
Betano
2.20
Under
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.49
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.6%
@ 1.49-1.2%
No
39.4%
@ 2.40+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.50
Superbet
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
Betfair
1.45
No
Betfair
2.55
Superbet
2.42
1xBet
2.39
Marathonbet
2.34
William Hil
2.30

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%@ 6.70+6.3%
2-1
8.9%@ 7.88+3.7%
1-2
7.9%@ 10.05+3.8%
1-0
7.0%@ 9.28+2.6%
2-0
6.4%@ 10.38+2.4%
0-0
6.3%@ 13.50+3.3%
2-2
6.2%@ 10.32+2.2%
0-1
6.1%@ 11.67+2.6%
JFK Ventspils goals ↓
Super Nova 2 goals →
01234
06.3%6.1%5.0%2.3%0.8%
17.0%12%7.9%3.6%1.3%
26.4%8.9%6.2%2.9%1.0%
33.3%4.6%3.2%1.5%0.5%
41.3%1.8%1.3%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = JFK Ventspils goals (down), columns = Super Nova 2 goals (across).

šŸ’Ŗ 3. Team Strengths Analysis

šŸ† Total PPG

Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
RÄ«gas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
JFK Ventspils is 0.31 points worse than Super Nova 2 in terms of average points per game (0.40 vs 0.71).

āš”ļø Attack

Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
RÄ«gas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
JFK Ventspils is 0.20 goals worse than Super Nova 2 in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 1.00).

šŸ›”ļø Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
RÄ«gas FS II
4.17
JFK Ventspils is 0.23 goals worse than Super Nova 2 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 1.57).

ā±ļø Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

šŸŽ² 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

šŸ”€ 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

šŸ„… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

āš–ļø 7. Handicap

ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U

JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L01L01L10W00D00D01L00D10W11DA·SMI20/09H·RÄŖG27/09A·JDF05/10H·RIG19/10A·SKA25/10H·MĀR01/11A·LEE08/11H·JDF18/07A·RIG25/07H·SMI02/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.430.690.310.500.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.640.500.750.380.500.67
vs Weaker (16)0.560.380.620.250.500.50
Clean sheet %63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Super Nova 2Super Nova 2

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L10W01LA·RIG19/07A·JDF25/07H·RIG31/07
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.000.001.001.001.00
vs Stronger (2)0.501.500.001.001.002.00
vs Similar (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U

JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L01L12L00D10W22D13L01L01LA·SMI20/09H·RÄŖG27/09A·JDF05/10H·RIG19/10A·SKA25/10H·MĀR01/11A·LEE08/11H·JDF18/07A·RIG25/07H·SMI02/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.730.810.810.860.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.640.570.750.620.500.50
vs Weaker (16)1.000.880.881.001.120.75
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Super Nova 2Super Nova 2

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L02LA·RIG19/07A·JDF25/07H·RIG31/07
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.001.000.002.000.000.50
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.002.000.000.00
vs Similar (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ”„ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.6%1.14
1xBet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
--+1.7%āœ“ Hit

šŸ’° 14. Squad value

šŸ’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (3)
€0m
M/L (4)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

āš”ļø Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (2)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (1)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ›”ļø Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ¤ 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
JV wins
0
Draws
0
SN2 wins

Head-to-head

JFK Ventspils vs Super Nova 2 · H/A from JV
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/08/26HJV Vs Smiltene1-2
25/07/26ARiga Mariners Vs JV1-1
18/07/26HJV Vs JDFS Alberts1-3
08/11/25ALeevon / PPK Vs JV3-2
01/11/25HJV Vs Mārupe1-0
25/10/25ASkanste Vs JV0-0
19/10/25HJV Vs Riga FC II2-2
05/10/25AJDFS Alberts Vs JV2-0
27/09/25HJV Vs RÄ«gas FS II0-2
20/09/25ASmiltene Vs JV2-2

Super Nova 2Super Nova 2

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/07/26HSN2 Vs Riga Mariners0-3
25/07/26AJDFS Alberts Vs SN21-1
19/07/26ARiga FC II Vs SN22-1

šŸ“Š 16. Overall Statistics

JFK Ventspils
JFK Ventspils
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDL1.36
HomeLDWLL1.40
AwayDLDLD1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%36%36%
AVG goals2.642.682.60
Over 1.5 %78%80%76%
Over 2.5 %48%48%48%
Over 3.5 %28%32%24%
Scored1.361.561.16
Conceded1.281.121.44
BTTS52%56%48%
Clean Sheet30%32%28%
Corners---
Cards---
Super Nova 2
Super Nova 2
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 0 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDL0.33
HomeL0.00
AwayLD0.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %0%0%0%
AVG goals2.673.002.50
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %67%100%50%
Over 3.5 %0%0%0%
Scored0.670.001.00
Conceded2.003.001.50
BTTS67%0%100%
Clean Sheet0%0%0%
Corners---
Cards---

šŸ† 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ā‚¬mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS618
100%
3.0
224+18
4.3
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.70.7
-
2Metta / LUMetta / LU616
83%
2.7
353+32
6.3
100%
83%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0005.80.5
-
3Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK515
100%
3.0
115+6
3.2
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
4JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts614
67%
2.3
124+8
2.7
100%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.7
-
5Riga MarinersRiga Mariners513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
6SkansteSkanste610
50%
1.7
1711+6
4.7
100%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.8
-
7MārupeMārupe76
29%
0.9
717-10
3.4
86%
71%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.4
-
8SmilteneSmiltene66
33%
1.0
920-11
4.8
83%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.53.3
-
9Super Nova 2Super Nova 275
14%
0.7
711-4
2.6
100%
57%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
10Riga FC IIRiga FC II65
17%
0.8
612-6
3.0
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
11Tukums IITukums II54
20%
0.8
720-13
5.4
100%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.44.0
-
12RÄ«gas FS IIRÄ«gas FS II63
17%
0.5
925-16
5.7
100%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.54.2
-
13JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils52
0%
0.4
49-5
2.6
100%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA60
0%
0.0
418-14
3.7
83%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.73.0
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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