PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

JK Tabasalu vs Tartu Welco Result & Analysis

Date: 31/08/2024
Time: 09:30
Final 0-4
JK Tabasalu
JK Tabasalu
Vs
19%
22%
59%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

JK Tabasalu win✗ Miss
19.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco win✓ Hit
59.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-503L15L22D05L15L13L12L10W01L13LH·VII29/06A·FCI06/07H·ELV13/07A·FLO20/07A·LAA27/07H·PAI05/08A·FCI11/08H·FC 17/08A·VII20/08H·TAL24/08
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.032.471.402.070.672.87
vs Stronger (9)0.332.560.752.500.002.60
vs Similar (21)1.332.431.641.911.003.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-552W22D42W11D21W35L13L11D31W00DH·TAL29/06H·FLO06/07A·VII13/07H·FCI20/07A·PAI27/07H·FLO05/08H·VII10/08A·LAA17/08A·FC 20/08H·ELV24/08
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.921.241.691.462.171.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.601.471.441.561.831.33
vs Weaker (10)2.400.902.251.252.500.67
Clean sheet %24% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (JK Tabasalu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.6%
Under 1.5
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.8%
Under 2.5
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.0%
Under 3.5
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.6%
No
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.6%
1-1
9.6%
0-2
7.9%
1-3
7.1%
0-1
6.3%
0-3
5.9%
2-2
5.9%
2-1
5.3%
JK Tabasalu goals ↓
Tartu Welco goals →
01234
04.1%6.3%7.9%5.9%3.3%
13.0%9.6%9.6%7.1%4.0%
22.4%5.3%5.9%4.3%2.4%
31.0%2.1%2.4%1.8%1.0%
40.3%0.7%0.7%0.5%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = JK Tabasalu goals (down), columns = Tartu Welco goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Laagri
2.17
Viimsi
2.08
Flora II
1.83
Tartu Welco
1.67
FC Tallinn
1.47
Elva
1.24
FCI Levadia II
1.22
Tallinna Kalev II
1.17
Paide II
0.69
JK Tabasalu
0.44
Legion
0.00
JK Tabasalu is 1.22 points worse than Tartu Welco in terms of average points per game (0.44 vs 1.67).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Laagri
3.06
Flora II
2.67
Viimsi
2.08
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Tartu Welco
1.94
FC Tallinn
1.86
FCI Levadia II
1.67
Elva
1.47
Paide II
1.31
JK Tabasalu
0.97
Legion
0.00
JK Tabasalu is 0.97 goals worse than Tartu Welco in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.94).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Laagri
1.17
Viimsi
1.17
Tartu Welco
1.22
FC Tallinn
1.50
Flora II
1.53
Elva
1.63
FCI Levadia II
1.97
Tallinna Kalev II
2.42
JK Tabasalu
2.81
Paide II
3.36
Legion
4.50
JK Tabasalu is 1.58 goals worse than Tartu Welco in terms of goals conceded per game (2.81 vs 1.22).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D03L10W02L10W12L01L00D01L11DH·VII29/06A·FCI06/07H·ELV13/07A·FLO20/07A·LAA27/07H·PAI05/08A·FCI11/08H·FC 17/08A·VII20/08H·TAL24/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.130.600.870.271.40
vs Stronger (9)0.221.000.500.750.001.20
vs Similar (21)0.521.190.640.910.401.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D21W32W00D10W12L02L01L11D00DH·TAL29/06H·FLO06/07A·VII13/07H·FCI20/07A·PAI27/07H·FLO05/08H·VII10/08A·LAA17/08A·FC 20/08H·ELV24/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.600.620.621.420.58
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.870.730.560.671.330.83
vs Weaker (10)1.200.400.750.501.500.33
Clean sheet %56% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (JK Tabasalu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
JK Tabasalu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JK Tabasalu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JK Tabasalu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-503L12L12L03L05L01L11D10W00D02LH·VII29/06A·FCI06/07H·ELV13/07A·FLO20/07A·LAA27/07H·PAI05/08A·FCI11/08H·FC 17/08A·VII20/08H·TAL24/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.330.801.200.401.47
vs Stronger (9)0.111.560.251.750.001.40
vs Similar (21)0.811.241.001.000.601.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W01L10W11D11D23L11D10W20W00DH·TAL29/06H·FLO06/07A·VII13/07H·FCI20/07A·PAI27/07H·FLO05/08H·VII10/08A·LAA17/08A·FC 20/08H·ELV24/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.920.641.080.850.750.42
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.730.730.890.890.500.50
vs Weaker (10)1.200.501.500.751.000.33
Clean sheet %48% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (JK Tabasalu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
JK Tabasalu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JK Tabasalu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JK Tabasalu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (25)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (12)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
JT wins
0
Draws
2
TW wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

JK Tabasalu vs Tartu Welco · H/A from JT
DateH/AGameScore
30/05/24HJT Vs Tartu Welco1-3
09/03/24ATartu Welco Vs JT2-0

JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/08/24HJT Vs Tallinna Kalev II1-3
20/08/24AViimsi Vs JT1-0
17/08/24HJT Vs FC Tallinn1-0
11/08/24AFCI Levadia II Vs JT2-1
05/08/24HJT Vs Paide II1-3
27/07/24ALaagri Vs JT5-1
20/07/24AFlora II Vs JT5-0
13/07/24HJT Vs Elva2-2
06/07/24AFCI Levadia II Vs JT5-1
29/06/24HJT Vs Viimsi0-3

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/08/24HTW Vs Elva0-0
20/08/24AFC Tallinn Vs TW1-3
17/08/24ALaagri Vs TW1-1
10/08/24HTW Vs Viimsi1-3
05/08/24HTW Vs Flora II3-5
27/07/24APaide II Vs TW1-2
20/07/24HTW Vs FCI Levadia II1-1
13/07/24AViimsi Vs TW2-4
06/07/24HTW Vs Flora II2-2
29/06/24HTW Vs Tallinna Kalev II5-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

JK Tabasalu
JK Tabasalu
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL1.04
HomeLDLWL1.25
AwayLLLLL0.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%38%27%
AVG goals3.884.003.77
Over 1.5 %84%88%81%
Over 2.5 %74%75%73%
Over 3.5 %54%62%46%
Scored1.561.961.19
Conceded2.322.042.58
BTTS56%58%54%
Clean Sheet16%25%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDWD1.68
HomeDDLLD1.46
AwayDWWDW1.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%38%50%
AVG goals3.163.153.17
Over 1.5 %80%77%83%
Over 2.5 %56%54%58%
Over 3.5 %40%38%42%
Scored1.921.692.17
Conceded1.241.461.00
BTTS64%54%75%
Clean Sheet24%31%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LaagriLaagri3678
61%
2.2
11042+68
4.2
89%
69%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1113.11.2
-
2ViimsiViimsi3675
61%
2.1
7542+33
3.2
78%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.2
-
3Flora IIFlora II3666
56%
1.8
9655+41
4.2
97%
72%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.71.5
-
4Tartu WelcoTartu Welco3660
44%
1.7
7044+26
3.2
78%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.2
-
5FC TallinnFC Tallinn3653
42%
1.5
6754+13
3.4
83%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
6ElvaElva3847
32%
1.2
5662-6
3.1
79%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
7FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3644
36%
1.2
6071-11
3.6
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
8Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II3642
31%
1.2
7287-15
4.4
94%
86%
72%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.4
-
9Paide IIPaide II3625
19%
0.7
47121-74
4.7
89%
86%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.33.4
-
10JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu3616
11%
0.4
35101-66
3.8
86%
78%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.8
-
11LegionLegion20
0%
0.0
09-9
4.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.04.5
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

← all matches