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Jonava vs BFA Prediction & Stats

Date: 16/10/2026
Time: 16:00
Jonava
Jonava
Vs
31%
30%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
BFA
BFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The contest between Jonava and BFA is a tight one, with the model pointing to an away win as the most likely outcome. Home advantage is modest: Jonava averages 0.5 goals scored and 1.33 conceded against weaker opponents, while BFA, on the road, averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.44 conceded against stronger teams. The expected total is 2.4 goals, with the single most probable scoreline 1-1 at about 14.3%. The probabilities for the match result are 33% for a Jonava win, 30% for a draw, and 37% for a BFA win.

The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.9%), Under 5.5 (96.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.2%), Under 4.5 (90.3%), Home under 2.5 goals (88.6%), and Away under 2.5 goals (87.0%). Each selection carries its own probability, with no overlap with the match-result percentages.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Jonava win
31.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BFA win
38.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

JonavaJonava

Last 10 – goals for & against
160-1600D02L160W04L10W20W12L12L01L21WA·ŽAL31/10H·EKR09/11A·UTE14/04H·ŠIA29/04H·GAR25/07A·BE131/07H·EKR07/08A·KAU14/08H·FA 21/08A·TRA29/08
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.030.671.602.400.47
vs Stronger (9)1.441.781.002.602.000.75
vs Similar (7)0.710.430.500.751.000.00
vs Weaker (14)2.000.860.501.333.120.50
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFABFA

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W21W03L41W31W01L42W00D20W22DH·BAB28/04H·GAR19/05H·KAU23/06A·EKR19/07H·BE126/07A·FA 02/08H·TRA08/08A·DAI15/08H·NEP22/08A·TAU28/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.201.731.001.601.40
vs Stronger (15)1.531.271.331.001.671.44
vs Similar (8)1.381.252.001.200.331.33
vs Weaker (7)2.291.002.000.752.671.33
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
70.6%
Under 1.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
43.3%
Under 2.5
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
22.3%
Under 3.5
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
50.1%
No
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-0
10.3%
0-1
10.2%
1-0
8.8%
1-2
8.3%
0-2
7.4%
2-1
7.3%
2-0
5.7%
Jonava goals ↓
BFA goals →
01234
010%10%7.4%3.2%1.0%
18.8%14%8.3%3.6%1.1%
25.7%7.3%4.7%2.0%0.6%
32.2%2.8%1.8%0.8%0.2%
40.6%0.8%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jonava goals (down), columns = BFA goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Jonava is 0.50 points worse than BFA in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Jonava is 0.98 goals worse than BFA in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 2.14).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Jonava and BFA are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Jonava or Draw
61.3%
Avg Implied -
31%
30%
39%
covers Jonava + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jonava or BFA
69.9%
Avg Implied -
31%
30%
39%
covers Jonava + BFA
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or BFA
68.8%
Avg Implied -
31%
30%
39%
covers Draw + BFA
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Jonava over/under 0.5
Over
67.6%
Under
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5
Over
31.1%
Under
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5
Over
72.2%
Under
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5
Over
36.6%
Under
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 3.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Jonava, so a minus line means Jonava give that many goals of a start and BFA receive them. At -1, Jonava must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Jonava win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Jonava)
Jonava -2
4.1%
Draw -2
9.0%
BFA +2
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Jonava)
Jonava -1
13.1%
Draw -1
18.2%
BFA +1
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Jonava)
Jonava +1
61.3%
Draw +1
20.8%
BFA -1
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Jonava)
Jonava +2
82.1%
Draw +2
11.6%
BFA -2
6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

JonavaJonava

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
80-800D00D80W03L00D00D01L10W01L11DA·ŽAL31/10H·EKR09/11A·UTE14/04H·ŠIA29/04H·GAR25/07A·BE131/07H·EKR07/08A·KAU14/08H·FA 21/08A·TRA29/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.500.400.731.000.27
vs Stronger (9)0.671.110.601.600.750.50
vs Similar (7)0.290.000.500.000.000.00
vs Weaker (14)0.930.360.170.501.500.25
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFABFA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D01L30W10W01L20W00D00D00DH·BAB28/04H·GAR19/05H·KAU23/06A·EKR19/07H·BE126/07A·FA 02/08H·TRA08/08A·DAI15/08H·NEP22/08A·TAU28/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.470.670.330.670.60
vs Stronger (15)0.400.530.330.170.440.78
vs Similar (8)0.620.620.800.600.330.67
vs Weaker (7)1.290.141.000.251.670.00
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jonava over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

JonavaJonava

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
80-800D02L80W01L10W20W11D02L00D10WA·ŽAL31/10H·EKR09/11A·UTE14/04H·ŠIA29/04H·GAR25/07A·BE131/07H·EKR07/08A·KAU14/08H·FA 21/08A·TRA29/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.530.270.871.400.20
vs Stronger (9)0.780.670.401.001.250.25
vs Similar (7)0.430.430.000.751.000.00
vs Weaker (14)1.070.500.330.831.620.25
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFABFA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W02L11D21W00D22D00D20W22DH·BAB28/04H·GAR19/05H·KAU23/06A·EKR19/07H·BE126/07A·FA 02/08H·TRA08/08A·DAI15/08H·NEP22/08A·TAU28/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.731.070.670.930.80
vs Stronger (15)1.130.731.000.831.220.67
vs Similar (8)0.750.621.200.600.000.67
vs Weaker (7)1.000.861.000.501.001.33
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jonava over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.7%-------
Under 6.598.8%-------
Home under 3.5 goals97.2%-------
Under 5.596.4%-------
Away under 3.5 goals95.9%-------
Under 4.590.3%-------
Home under 2.5 goals89.5%-------
Away +2 handicap86.9%-------
Away under 2.5 goals86.1%-------
Home +2 handicap82.1%-------
Under 3.577.7%-------
Away over 0.5 goals72.2%-------
Over 1.570.6%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
JON wins
1
Draws
3
BFA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Jonava vs BFA · H/A from JON
DateH/AGameScore
26/07/25ABFA Vs JON0-0
15/03/25HJON Vs BFA0-1
07/10/23HJON Vs BFA0-3
21/05/23ABFA Vs JON2-1

JonavaJonava

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26ATransinvest 2 Vs JON1-2
21/08/26HJON Vs FA Šiauliai II0-1
14/08/26AKauno Žalgiris II Vs JON2-1
07/08/26HJON Vs Ekranas1-2
31/07/26ABe1 NFA Vs JON0-2
25/07/26HJON Vs Garliava1-0
29/04/26HJON Vs Šiauliai0-4
14/04/26AUtenos Utena Vs JON0-16
09/11/25HJON Vs Ekranas0-2
31/10/25AŽalgiris II Vs JON0-0

BFABFA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26ATauras Vs BFA2-2
22/08/26HBFA Vs Neptūną Klaipėda2-0
15/08/26ADainava Vs BFA0-0
08/08/26HBFA Vs Transinvest 24-2
02/08/26AFA Šiauliai II Vs BFA1-0
26/07/26HBFA Vs Be1 NFA3-1
19/07/26AEkranas Vs BFA1-4
23/06/26HBFA Vs Kauno Žalgiris0-3
19/05/26HBFA Vs Garliava2-1
28/04/26HBFA Vs Babrungas1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Jonava
Jonava
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLW1.36
HomeLLWLL0.88
AwayDWWLW1.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%21%54%
AVG goals2.622.422.81
Over 1.5 %66%71%62%
Over 2.5 %42%38%46%
Over 3.5 %24%25%23%
Scored1.400.752.00
Conceded1.221.670.81
BTTS40%42%38%
Clean Sheet34%21%46%
Corners---
Cards---
BFA
BFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWD1.76
HomeWLWWW2.12
AwayWWLDD1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%67%38%
AVG goals2.902.793.00
Over 1.5 %74%67%81%
Over 2.5 %56%50%62%
Over 3.5 %38%33%42%
Scored1.661.711.62
Conceded1.241.081.38
BTTS50%42%58%
Clean Sheet34%46%23%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II719
86%
2.7
156+9
3.0
71%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.10.9
-
2BabrungasBabrungas716
71%
2.3
123+9
2.1
71%
29%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.4
-
3BFABFA714
57%
2.0
157+8
3.1
71%
57%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.0
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda713
57%
1.9
1010+0
2.9
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
5MinijaMinija512
80%
2.4
142+12
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.4
-
6DainavaDainava69
33%
1.5
75+2
2.0
67%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.20.8
-
7Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II69
50%
1.5
1110+1
3.5
100%
83%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
8Be1 NFABe1 NFA69
50%
1.5
109+1
3.2
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.5
-
9TaurasTauras69
33%
1.5
98+1
2.8
83%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
10JonavaJonava69
50%
1.5
76+1
2.2
67%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
11FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II67
33%
1.2
69-3
2.5
67%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
12Hegelmann IIHegelmann II76
29%
0.9
818-10
3.7
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.6
-
13AtmosferaAtmosfera65
17%
0.8
811-3
3.2
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.8
-
14Transinvest 2Transinvest 274
14%
0.6
1116-5
3.9
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.3
-
15EkranasEkranas74
14%
0.6
621-15
3.9
100%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.0
-
16GarliavaGarliava60
0%
0.0
19-8
1.7
33%
17%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.21.5
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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