Jonava face Dainava with the model predicting an away win. The odds favour the visitors, with a 57% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw and a 16% chance of a home win. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 0-1, a 15.1% probability. Jonava, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened side, averages 0.5 goals scored and 0.75 conceded, while Dainava, on the road, averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against comparable opponents. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (99.4%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.1%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.0%), Under 5.5 (97.2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.6%) and Home under 2.5 goals (96.6%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Jonava win
15.6%
Avg Implied 30.6% · @ 2.92
Edge
-15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.25
Dafabet
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Betano
2.95
Draw
27.7%
Avg Implied 28.2% · @ 3.17
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.30
Unibet
3.25
Superbet
3.15
Dainava win
56.7%
Avg Implied 41.2% · @ 2.17
Edge
+15.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.25
Dafabet
2.22
Superbet
2.22
Pinnacle
2.21
William Hil
2.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Jonava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.03
0.67
1.60
2.40
0.47
vs Stronger (9)
1.44
1.78
1.00
2.60
2.00
0.75
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.43
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (14)
2.00
0.86
0.50
1.33
3.12
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dainava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.70
0.75
1.62
1.43
1.79
vs Stronger (15)
1.13
1.53
0.57
1.71
1.62
1.38
vs Similar (12)
0.92
2.17
0.67
2.00
1.17
2.33
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.67
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.1%
@ 1.27-5.0%
Under 1.5
32.9%
@ 3.29+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Unibet
1.22
Under
Unibet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Superbet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.14
1xBet
3.10
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.3%
@ 1.89-9.0%
Under 2.5
60.7%
@ 1.77+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.92
Superbet
1.92
Under
Unibet
1.90
Superbet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Marathonbet
1.77
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.3%
@ 3.20-9.4%
Under 3.5
80.7%
@ 1.28+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Marathonbet
3.28
Superbet
3.10
Unibet
2.80
Under
Unibet
1.34
Betfair
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Both teams to score
Yes
41.0%
@ 1.70-12.5%
No
59.0%
@ 1.96+12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
1.79
William Hil
1.75
Superbet
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
No
Unibet
2.10
Betfair
2.05
Superbet
2.00
William Hil
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
15.1%@ 7.13+9.2%
0-2
12.7%@ 9.78+8.4%
1-1
12.6%@ 6.01+5.5%
0-0
11.6%@ 8.68+6.7%
1-2
8.9%@ 8.42+3.9%
0-3
6.6%@ 19.00+4.4%
1-0
6.2%@ 8.40+1.2%
1-3
4.6%@ 16.50+2.1%
Jonava goals ↓
Dainava goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
15%
13%
6.6%
2.6%
1
6.2%
13%
8.9%
4.6%
1.8%
2
2.6%
4.0%
3.1%
1.6%
0.6%
3
0.6%
0.9%
0.7%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jonava goals (down), columns = Dainava goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Jonava and Dainava are level in average points per game (both 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Jonava and Dainava are level in goals scored per game (both 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Jonava is 0.17 goals worse than Dainava in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Jonava or Draw
43.3%
Avg Implied 58.1% · @ 1.56
Edge
-14.8%
16%
28%
57%
covers Jonava + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.62
Betfair
1.62
1xBet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Jonava or Dainava
72.3%
Avg Implied 72.3% · @ 1.26
Edge
+0.1%
16%
28%
57%
covers Jonava + Dainava
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Draw or Dainava
84.4%
Avg Implied 69.6% · @ 1.30
Edge
+14.8%
16%
28%
57%
covers Draw + Dainava
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.38
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.33
Betfair
1.30
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Jonava over/under 0.5
Over
50.5%
@ 1.35-17.8%
Under
49.5%
@ 2.90+17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.35
Under
1xBet
2.90
Jonava over/under 1.5
Over
15.7%
@ 2.66-18.9%
Under
84.3%
@ 1.41+18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.72
1xBet
2.60
Under
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.38
Jonava over/under 2.5
Over
3.4%
@ 6.60-10.5%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.07+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.60
Under
1xBet
1.07
Jonava over/under 3.5
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 0.5
Over
78.9%
@ 1.26+5.4%
Under
21.1%
@ 3.50-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.26
Under
1xBet
3.50
Dainava over/under 1.5
Over
46.1%
@ 2.23+4.9%
Under
53.9%
@ 1.57-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.23
Marathonbet
2.22
Under
1xBet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
Dainava over/under 2.5
Over
20.6%
@ 5.10+2.6%
Under
79.4%
@ 1.12-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.10
Under
1xBet
1.12
Dainava over/under 3.5
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Jonava, so a minus line means Jonava give that many goals of a start and Dainava receive them. At -1, Jonava must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Jonava win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Jonava)
Jonava -2
0.9%
Draw -2
3.7%
Dainava +2
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Jonava)
Jonava -1
4.6%
Draw -1
11.0%
Dainava +1
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Jonava)
Jonava +1
43.3%
@ 1.55-13.4%
Draw +1
25.8%
@ 3.79+2.7%
Dainava -1
31.0%
@ 4.33+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.53
Draw
Marathonbet
3.84
Betfair
3.75
Away
Marathonbet
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Handicap +2 (Jonava)
Jonava +2
69.0%
@ 1.14-0.2%
Draw +2
18.0%
@ 4.50+0.4%
Dainava -2
13.0%
@ 5.95-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.14
Draw
Marathonbet
4.50
Away
Marathonbet
5.95
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Jonava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.40
0.73
1.00
0.27
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.11
0.60
1.60
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (7)
0.29
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.36
0.17
0.50
1.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dainava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.63
0.44
0.75
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
0.67
0.43
1.00
0.50
0.38
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.58
0.17
0.50
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.67
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.3%
@ 1.36+5.0%
Under 0.5
28.7%
@ 2.68-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Under
William Hil
2.90
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.85
Pinnacle
2.71
Marathonbet
2.67
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.4%
@ 2.71+2.7%
Under 1.5
63.6%
@ 1.38-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.79
Betfair
2.75
1xBet
2.75
Pinnacle
2.74
William Hil
2.70
Under
Betfair
1.40
William Hil
1.40
1xBet
1.38
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.5%
@ 6.80-1.1%
Under 2.5
87.5%
@ 1.07+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
7.00
1xBet
6.90
Betfair
6.50
Under
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.08
1xBet
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jonava over/under 0.5 HT
Over
56.1%
@ 2.23+14.9%
Under
43.9%
@ 1.56-14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.23
1xBet
2.22
Under
1xBet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.56
Jonava over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.3%
@ 6.85+5.8%
Under
80.7%
@ 1.07-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.85
Under
1xBet
1.07
Jonava over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.5%
@ 11.00-4.9%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.01+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01
Dainava over/under 0.5 HT
Over
35.1%
@ 1.97-11.7%
Under
64.9%
@ 1.73+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.96
Under
1xBet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.72
Dainava over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.0%
@ 5.25-9.5%
Under
92.0%
@ 1.11+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.25
Under
1xBet
1.11
Dainava over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
@ 11.00-7.4%
Under
99.0%
@ 1.01+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Jonava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.27
0.87
1.40
0.20
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
0.67
0.40
1.00
1.25
0.25
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.43
0.00
0.75
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.50
0.33
0.83
1.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dainava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.07
0.31
0.88
0.93
1.29
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
0.87
0.14
0.71
1.12
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
1.58
0.50
1.50
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
0.33
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.0%
@ 1.24+0.7%
Under 0.5
25.0%
@ 3.60-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.24
Under
1xBet
3.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.6%
@ 2.13+2.4%
Under 1.5
54.4%
@ 1.62-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.14
Marathonbet
2.13
Under
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.62
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.7%
@ 4.60-0.3%
Under 2.5
80.3%
@ 1.15+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.60
Under
1xBet
1.15
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jonava over/under 0.5 2H
Over
62.2%
@ 1.90+13.6%
Under
37.8%
@ 1.80-13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.90
Under
1xBet
1.80
Jonava over/under 1.5 2H
Over
24.5%
@ 5.10+6.5%
Under
75.5%
@ 1.12-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.10
Under
1xBet
1.12
Jonava over/under 2.5 2H
Over
9.6%
@ 11.00+1.2%
Under
90.4%
@ 1.01-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01
Dainava over/under 0.5 2H
Over
41.8%
@ 1.71-12.3%
Under
58.2%
@ 2.01+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.71
Under
1xBet
2.01
Dainava over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.3%
@ 4.25-10.3%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.17+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.25
Under
1xBet
1.17
Dainava over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.7%
@ 10.00-7.6%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.02+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Under
1xBet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+7.4%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.6%
Under 5.5
97.2%
1.02
Betfair
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.0%
Home under 2.5 goals
96.6%
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
-
-
-
+10.5%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.5%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.9%
Away +2 handicap
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.1%
1.09
Betfair
1.10
1xBet
1.08
-
-
-
+6.4%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.0%
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-
-
-
-
+9.5%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
90.4%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.2%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.7%
1.17
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
-
+10.3%
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.5%
1.07
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.08
1xBet
1.06
-
-
+1.1%
Draw or Away
84.4%
1.30
1xBet
1.38
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.33
Betfair
1.30
+14.8%
Away +1 handicap
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
84.3%
1.41
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.38
-
-
-
+18.9%
Under 3.5
80.7%
1.28
Unibet
1.34
Betfair
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
+9.4%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.7%
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
-
-
-
-5.8%
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.3%
1.15
1xBet
1.15
-
-
-
-
+0.3%
Away under 2.5 goals
79.4%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-
-2.6%
Away over 0.5 goals
78.9%
1.26
1xBet
1.26
-
-
-
-
+5.4%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.5%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-
-6.5%
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.0%
1.24
1xBet
1.24
-
-
-
-
+0.7%
Home or Away
72.3%
1.26
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
+0.1%
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.3%
1.36
Betano
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
Betfair
1.36
+5.0%
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Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
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Žalgiris II
Babrungas
BFA
Neptūną Klaipėda
Minija
Kauno Žalgiris II
Be1 NFA
Tauras
FA Šiauliai II
Hegelmann II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Ekranas
Garliava