Jonava's recent form note is worth a mention, coming off a defeat, but Ekranas, their opponent in the last match, managed to secure an away win with a 2-1 scoreline. However, the current match is a different story with Ekranas looking to bounce back from a win in their last encounter against Jonava.
In the Lithuania: 1 Lyga, Jonava is the favourite to win at home with a 40% probability, followed by a draw at 29%, and Ekranas' away win at 31%. The model's pick is indeed a home win. The expected total number of goals is 2.5, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 13.9%.
Jonava's home form is a concern, scoring an average of 0.93 goals at home and conceding 1.13 goals against stronger opponents. Ekranas, on the other hand, has been impressive away from home, scoring 2 goals on average and conceding none against weaker opponents.
The model's selections include Under 3.5, which has a 75% probability and an edge of 9%, and Over 1.5, with a 73.2% probability. The home win percentage is 40%, the draw percentage is 29%, and the away win percentage is 31%.
In a major upset, Ekranas secured an away win against Jonava, defying expectations and handing the pre-match favourite a loss. The win extends Ekranas' run of coming off a win, having beaten Jonava just a few days ago. The final score of 1-2 reflected the actual result, with Ekranas' strong away form evident in their 2 goals scored and 0 conceded. The model's selection, a home win, was wrong, given the pre-match probability of 40%. The model's call was incorrect. Meanwhile, the model's suggested picks, including Under 3.5 and Over 1.5, both hit, with probabilities of 75% and 73.2% respectively.
Jonava| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.60 | 1.00 | 0.87 | 1.47 | 2.33 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 1.50 | 1.80 | 1.00 | 2.60 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.67 | 0.56 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 2.45 | 0.64 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 3.67 | 0.17 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
Ekranas| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 1.93 | 1.00 | 2.07 | 1.25 | 1.81 |
| vs Stronger (26) | 1.27 | 1.73 | 1.08 | 1.83 | 1.43 | 1.64 |
| vs Similar (4) | 0.25 | 3.25 | 0.50 | 3.50 | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-6pp vs league) | |||||
| Ekranas goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.2% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 9.5% | 14% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.3% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 3.3% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Jonava| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.47 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.87 | 0.33 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.60 | 1.10 | 0.60 | 1.60 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.00 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 1.67 | 0.17 |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+44pp vs league) | |||||
Ekranas| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.40 | 0.83 | 0.36 | 0.93 | 0.44 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (26) | 0.42 | 0.73 | 0.33 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.71 |
| vs Similar (4) | 0.25 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+24pp vs league) | |||||
Jonava| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.53 | 0.47 | 0.87 | 1.47 | 0.20 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.20 | 0.60 | 0.75 | 0.25 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.45 | 0.45 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
Ekranas| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 1.10 | 0.64 | 1.14 | 0.81 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (26) | 0.85 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.08 | 0.93 | 0.93 |
| vs Similar (4) | 0.00 | 1.75 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+4pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 75.0% | 1.38 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.36 | +8.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 73.2% | 1.20 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.18 | -3.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 27/06/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 29/09/23 | A | 4-3 | |
| 14/05/23 | H | 1-4 |
Jonava| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 25/07/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 29/04/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 14/04/26 | A | 0-16 | |
| 09/11/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 31/10/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 25/10/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 18/10/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 04/10/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 26/09/25 | A | 0-3 |
Ekranas| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 25/07/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 19/07/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 09/11/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 01/11/25 | H | 0-3 | |
| 24/10/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 17/10/25 | H | 1-3 | |
| 03/10/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 26/09/25 | H | 0-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Žalgiris II | 7 | 19 | 86% | 2.7 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 3.0 | 71% | 43% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | - |
| 2 | Babrungas | 7 | 16 | 71% | 2.3 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 2.1 | 71% | 29% | 14% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | - |
| 3 | BFA | 7 | 14 | 57% | 2.0 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 3.1 | 71% | 57% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | - |
| 4 | Neptūną Klaipėda | 7 | 13 | 57% | 1.9 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 2.9 | 86% | 57% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 5 | Minija | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.4 | - |
| 6 | Dainava | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 7 | Kauno Žalgiris II | 6 | 9 | 50% | 1.5 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 3.5 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | - |
| 8 | Be1 NFA | 6 | 9 | 50% | 1.5 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 3.2 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | - |
| 9 | Tauras | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 2.8 | 83% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 10 | Jonava | 6 | 9 | 50% | 1.5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.2 | 67% | 50% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 11 | FA Šiauliai II | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 12 | Hegelmann II | 7 | 6 | 29% | 0.9 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 3.7 | 100% | 86% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.6 | - |
| 13 | Atmosfera | 6 | 5 | 17% | 0.8 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 3.2 | 100% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Transinvest 2 | 7 | 4 | 14% | 0.6 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 3.9 | 86% | 71% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.3 | - |
| 15 | Ekranas | 7 | 4 | 14% | 0.6 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 3.9 | 100% | 71% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 3.0 | - |
| 16 | Garliava | 6 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 1.7 | 33% | 17% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 1.5 | - |