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Jonava vs Ekranas Result & Analysis

Date: 07/08/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 1-2
Jonava
Jonava
Vs
40%
29%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ekranas
Ekranas
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Jonava's recent form note is worth a mention, coming off a defeat, but Ekranas, their opponent in the last match, managed to secure an away win with a 2-1 scoreline. However, the current match is a different story with Ekranas looking to bounce back from a win in their last encounter against Jonava.

In the Lithuania: 1 Lyga, Jonava is the favourite to win at home with a 40% probability, followed by a draw at 29%, and Ekranas' away win at 31%. The model's pick is indeed a home win. The expected total number of goals is 2.5, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 13.9%.

Jonava's home form is a concern, scoring an average of 0.93 goals at home and conceding 1.13 goals against stronger opponents. Ekranas, on the other hand, has been impressive away from home, scoring 2 goals on average and conceding none against weaker opponents.

The model's selections include Under 3.5, which has a 75% probability and an edge of 9%, and Over 1.5, with a 73.2% probability. The home win percentage is 40%, the draw percentage is 29%, and the away win percentage is 31%.

Results analysis

In a major upset, Ekranas secured an away win against Jonava, defying expectations and handing the pre-match favourite a loss. The win extends Ekranas' run of coming off a win, having beaten Jonava just a few days ago. The final score of 1-2 reflected the actual result, with Ekranas' strong away form evident in their 2 goals scored and 0 conceded. The model's selection, a home win, was wrong, given the pre-match probability of 40%. The model's call was incorrect. Meanwhile, the model's suggested picks, including Under 3.5 and Over 1.5, both hit, with probabilities of 75% and 73.2% respectively.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Jonava win✗ Miss
39.6%
Avg Implied 53.1% · @ 1.68
Edge
-13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.73
William Hil
1.73
Dafabet
1.71
Superbet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Draw✗ Miss
29.2%
Avg Implied 24.8% · @ 3.60
Edge
+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Dafabet
3.70
Betano
3.65
Superbet
3.65
Ekranas win✓ Hit
31.2%
Avg Implied 22.1% · @ 4.05
Edge
+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.40
1xBet
4.38
Marathonbet
4.25
10Bet
4.20
Dafabet
4.10

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

JonavaJonava

Last 10 – goals for & against
160-1630W22D10W02L00D02L160W04L10W20WA·FA 26/09H·NEV04/10A·MIN18/10H·ATM25/10A·ŽAL31/10H·EKR09/11A·UTE14/04H·ŠIA29/04H·GAR25/07A·BE131/07
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.000.871.472.330.53
vs Stronger (10)1.501.801.002.602.001.00
vs Similar (9)0.670.560.600.600.750.50
vs Weaker (11)2.450.641.001.203.670.17
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekranas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

EkranasEkranas

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L12L13L20W03L20W00D14L02L11DH·BAB26/09A·NEP03/10H·TAU17/10A·NEV24/10H·ATM01/11A·JON09/11A·TAU11/04H·BFA19/07A·BAB25/07H·ŽAL01/08
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.931.002.071.251.81
vs Stronger (26)1.271.731.081.831.431.64
vs Similar (4)0.253.250.503.500.003.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%222%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.2%
@ 1.20-3.2%
Under 1.5
26.8%
@ 3.88+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.22
Unibet
1.22
1xBet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
3.92
1xBet
3.92
Superbet
3.75
Unibet
3.60
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.5%
@ 1.68-7.7%
Under 2.5
53.5%
@ 1.99+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.85
Unibet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Superbet
1.67
Under
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.05
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.0%
@ 2.72-8.6%
Under 3.5
75.0%
@ 1.38+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.75
Pinnacle
2.70
1xBet
2.69
Marathonbet
2.69
Under
Superbet
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Pinnacle
1.38
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.7%
@ 1.64-2.6%
No
47.3%
@ 2.03+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.70
Unibet
1.68
Betfair
1.67
William Hil
1.67
1xBet
1.65
No
Betfair
2.15
1xBet
2.07
William Hil
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
Superbet
2.02

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%@ 6.69+7.8%
1-0
9.5%@ 6.91+3.5%
0-0
9.2%@ 10.86+5.4%
2-1
8.6%@ 7.29+2.9%
0-1
8.1%@ 11.71+4.6%
1-2 ✓
7.5%@ 12.29+4.1%
2-0
7.3%@ 7.76+2.0%
0-2
5.5%@ 20.86+3.5%
Jonava goals ↓
Ekranas goals →
01234
09.2%8.1%5.5%2.2%0.6%
19.5%14%7.5%2.9%0.9%
27.3%8.6%5.1%2.0%0.6%
33.3%3.9%2.3%0.9%0.3%
41.1%1.3%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jonava goals (down), columns = Ekranas goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Jonava is 0.93 points better than Ekranas in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.57).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Jonava is 0.31 goals better than Ekranas in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 0.86).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Jonava is 2.00 goals better than Ekranas in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 3.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

JonavaJonava

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
80-810W20W00D01L00D00D80W03L00D00DA·FA 26/09H·NEV04/10A·MIN18/10H·ATM25/10A·ŽAL31/10H·EKR09/11A·UTE14/04H·ŠIA29/04H·GAR25/07A·BE131/07
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.470.400.600.870.33
vs Stronger (10)0.601.100.601.600.600.60
vs Similar (9)0.220.110.400.000.000.25
vs Weaker (11)1.000.180.200.201.670.17
Clean sheet %70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekranas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

EkranasEkranas

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D11D00D01L00D00D03L01L10WH·BAB26/09A·NEP03/10H·TAU17/10A·NEV24/10H·ATM01/11A·JON09/11A·TAU11/04H·BFA19/07A·BAB25/07H·ŽAL01/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.830.360.930.440.75
vs Stronger (26)0.420.730.330.750.500.71
vs Similar (4)0.251.500.502.000.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jonava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

JonavaJonava

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
80-820W02L10W01L00D02L80W01L10W20WA·FA 26/09H·NEV04/10A·MIN18/10H·ATM25/10A·ŽAL31/10H·EKR09/11A·UTE14/04H·ŠIA29/04H·GAR25/07A·BE131/07
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.530.470.871.470.20
vs Stronger (10)0.900.700.401.001.400.40
vs Similar (9)0.440.440.200.600.750.25
vs Weaker (11)1.450.450.801.002.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekranas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

EkranasEkranas

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L01L02L20W02L20W00D11D01L01LH·BAB26/09A·NEP03/10H·TAU17/10A·NEV24/10H·ATM01/11A·JON09/11A·TAU11/04H·BFA19/07A·BAB25/07H·ŽAL01/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.100.641.140.811.06
vs Stronger (26)0.851.000.751.080.930.93
vs Similar (4)0.001.750.001.500.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jonava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.0%1.38
Superbet
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Pinnacle
1.38
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
+8.6%✓ Hit
Over 1.573.2%1.20
Betfair
1.22
Unibet
1.22
1xBet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
-3.2%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
JON wins
1
Draws
3
EKR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Jonava vs Ekranas · H/A from JON
DateH/AGameScore
09/11/25HJON Vs Ekranas0-2
27/06/25AEkranas Vs JON0-0
29/09/23AEkranas Vs JON4-3
14/05/23HJON Vs Ekranas1-4

JonavaJonava

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/07/26ABe1 NFA Vs JON0-2
25/07/26HJON Vs Garliava1-0
29/04/26HJON Vs Šiauliai0-4
14/04/26AUtenos Utena Vs JON0-16
09/11/25HJON Vs Ekranas0-2
31/10/25AŽalgiris II Vs JON0-0
25/10/25HJON Vs Atmosfera0-2
18/10/25AMinija Vs JON0-1
04/10/25HJON Vs Nevėžis2-2
26/09/25AFA Šiauliai II Vs JON0-3

EkranasEkranas

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/08/26HEKR Vs Žalgiris II1-1
25/07/26ABabrungas Vs EKR2-0
19/07/26HEKR Vs BFA1-4
11/04/26ATauras Vs EKR0-0
09/11/25AJonava Vs EKR0-2
01/11/25HEKR Vs Atmosfera0-3
24/10/25ANevėžis Vs EKR0-2
17/10/25HEKR Vs Tauras1-3
03/10/25ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs EKR2-1
26/09/25HEKR Vs Babrungas0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Jonava
Jonava
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWW1.36
HomeDLLLW1.00
AwayWWDWW1.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%25%50%
AVG goals2.782.503.04
Over 1.5 %68%75%62%
Over 2.5 %44%42%46%
Over 3.5 %28%25%31%
Scored1.440.792.04
Conceded1.341.711.00
BTTS40%42%38%
Clean Sheet34%21%46%
Corners---
Cards---
Ekranas
Ekranas
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLD1.06
HomeLLLLD0.88
AwayLWWDL1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%24%36%
AVG goals3.242.963.52
Over 1.5 %76%80%72%
Over 2.5 %50%56%44%
Over 3.5 %40%40%40%
Scored1.481.161.80
Conceded1.761.801.72
BTTS48%52%44%
Clean Sheet24%20%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II719
86%
2.7
156+9
3.0
71%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.10.9
-
2BabrungasBabrungas716
71%
2.3
123+9
2.1
71%
29%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.4
-
3BFABFA714
57%
2.0
157+8
3.1
71%
57%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.0
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda713
57%
1.9
1010+0
2.9
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
5MinijaMinija512
80%
2.4
142+12
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.4
-
6DainavaDainava69
33%
1.5
75+2
2.0
67%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.20.8
-
7Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II69
50%
1.5
1110+1
3.5
100%
83%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
8Be1 NFABe1 NFA69
50%
1.5
109+1
3.2
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.5
-
9TaurasTauras69
33%
1.5
98+1
2.8
83%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
10JonavaJonava69
50%
1.5
76+1
2.2
67%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
11FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II67
33%
1.2
69-3
2.5
67%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
12Hegelmann IIHegelmann II76
29%
0.9
818-10
3.7
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.6
-
13AtmosferaAtmosfera65
17%
0.8
811-3
3.2
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.8
-
14Transinvest 2Transinvest 274
14%
0.6
1116-5
3.9
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.3
-
15EkranasEkranas74
14%
0.6
621-15
3.9
100%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.0
-
16GarliavaGarliava60
0%
0.0
19-8
1.7
33%
17%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.21.5
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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