The defensive figures set the tone for this encounter. Jonava, averaging 0.5 goals scored and 0.75 conceded at home against similar opposition, will face Tauras, who nets 1.33 and concedes 0.67 on the road. The model projects a tight, low-scoring affair with an expected 2.2 goals, centering on a 2-goal total. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with Tauras winning 14.4 % of the time, which also aligns with the model’s pick of an away victory. Home win odds sit at 20 %, a draw at 30 %, and an away win at 50 %. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.2 %), Home under 3.5 goals (99.1 %), Under 5.5 (97.5 %), Home under 2.5 goals (95.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (94.5 %), Away +2 handicap (93.6 %), and Under 4.5 (92.7 %). Jonava’s recent form shows a 3-game losing streak, while Tauras returns from a draw, adding to the expectation that the visitors will edge the match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Jonava win
19.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tauras win
50.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Jonava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.03
0.67
1.60
2.40
0.47
vs Stronger (9)
1.44
1.78
1.00
2.60
2.00
0.75
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.43
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (14)
2.00
0.86
0.50
1.33
3.12
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tauras
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.17
1.53
1.60
1.73
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
2.12
1.38
1.33
2.67
2.60
0.60
vs Similar (7)
1.00
1.43
0.67
2.33
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (15)
1.67
0.93
1.89
1.00
1.33
0.83
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
65.9%
Under 1.5
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
37.8%
Under 2.5
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
18.1%
Under 3.5
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
42.6%
No
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
14.4%
1-1
13.6%
0-0
12.3%
0-2
11.0%
1-2
8.7%
1-0
7.5%
0-3
5.2%
2-1
4.9%
Jonava goals ↓
Tauras goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
14%
11%
5.2%
1.8%
1
7.5%
14%
8.7%
4.1%
1.4%
2
3.5%
4.9%
3.4%
1.6%
0.6%
3
0.9%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
0.2%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jonava goals (down), columns = Tauras goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Jonava and Tauras are level in average points per game (both 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Jonava is 0.33 goals worse than Tauras in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Jonava is 0.33 goals better than Tauras in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Jonava or Draw
49.5%
Avg Implied -
20%
30%
50%
covers Jonava + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jonava or Tauras
70.2%
Avg Implied -
20%
30%
50%
covers Jonava + Tauras
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tauras
80.2%
Avg Implied -
20%
30%
50%
covers Draw + Tauras
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Jonava over/under 0.5
Over
54.7%
Under
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5
Over
18.8%
Under
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 0.5
Over
75.6%
Under
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5
Over
41.2%
Under
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5
Over
17.0%
Under
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 3.5
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Jonava, so a minus line means Jonava give that many goals of a start and Tauras receive them. At -1, Jonava must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Jonava win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Jonava)
Jonava -2
1.5%
Draw -2
4.9%
Tauras +2
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Jonava)
Jonava -1
6.4%
Draw -1
13.4%
Tauras +1
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Jonava)
Jonava +1
49.5%
Draw +1
24.9%
Tauras -1
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Jonava)
Jonava +2
74.4%
Draw +2
15.7%
Tauras -2
9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Jonava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.40
0.73
1.00
0.27
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.11
0.60
1.60
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (7)
0.29
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.36
0.17
0.50
1.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tauras
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.40
0.93
0.80
0.33
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
0.62
0.33
1.67
1.60
0.00
vs Similar (7)
0.29
1.00
0.00
1.67
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (15)
0.47
0.47
0.56
0.44
0.33
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jonava over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Jonava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.27
0.87
1.40
0.20
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
0.67
0.40
1.00
1.25
0.25
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.43
0.00
0.75
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.50
0.33
0.83
1.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tauras
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.53
1.13
0.67
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.60
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.43
0.67
0.67
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (15)
1.20
0.47
1.33
0.56
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jonava over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
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Žalgiris II
Babrungas
BFA
Neptūną Klaipėda
Minija
Dainava
Kauno Žalgiris II
Be1 NFA
FA Šiauliai II
Hegelmann II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Ekranas
Garliava