The model points to an away win as the most likely outcome, with a 57% chance for Žalgiris II and only 18% for Jonava to secure victory, while a draw sits at 26%. The expected total of 2.6 goals translates to an average of about two goals per match, and the most probable total is exactly two, with a 26% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, carrying a 12.3% chance.
Jonava, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, averages just 0.5 goals scored and 0.75 conceded. In contrast, Žalgiris II, on a four-game winning run, averages 2.0 goals scored and 0.78 conceded when facing comparable opposition. This statistical edge supports the predicted away victory.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.8%), Under 6.5 (98.3%), Under 5.5 (95.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (94.2%), Away +2 handicap (94.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (90.3%), and Under 4.5 (87.8%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Jonava win
17.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II win
56.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Jonava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.03
0.67
1.60
2.40
0.47
vs Stronger (9)
1.44
1.78
1.00
2.60
2.00
0.75
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.43
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (14)
2.00
0.86
0.50
1.33
3.12
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Žalgiris II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.47
1.87
1.53
1.80
1.40
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
1.71
1.25
1.50
1.67
2.00
vs Similar (16)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.29
2.00
0.78
vs Weaker (7)
1.86
2.29
2.25
2.00
1.33
2.67
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.3%
Under 1.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.0%
Under 2.5
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.3%
Under 3.5
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.9%
No
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
0-1
11.8%
0-2
11.1%
1-2
9.7%
0-0
8.6%
0-3
6.4%
1-3
5.6%
1-0
5.4%
Jonava goals ↓
Žalgiris II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
12%
11%
6.4%
2.8%
1
5.4%
12%
9.7%
5.6%
2.4%
2
2.8%
4.9%
4.2%
2.4%
1.0%
3
0.8%
1.4%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jonava goals (down), columns = Žalgiris II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Jonava is 1.21 points worse than Žalgiris II in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Jonava is 0.98 goals worse than Žalgiris II in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 2.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Jonava is 0.14 goals worse than Žalgiris II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Jonava or Draw
43.5%
Avg Implied -
18%
26%
57%
covers Jonava + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jonava or Žalgiris II
74.1%
Avg Implied -
18%
26%
57%
covers Jonava + Žalgiris II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Žalgiris II
82.4%
Avg Implied -
18%
26%
57%
covers Draw + Žalgiris II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Jonava over/under 0.5
Over
58.1%
Under
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5
Over
21.6%
Under
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5
Over
82.2%
Under
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5
Over
51.4%
Under
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5
Over
24.9%
Under
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 3.5
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Jonava, so a minus line means Jonava give that many goals of a start and Žalgiris II receive them. At -1, Jonava must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Jonava win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Jonava)
Jonava -2
1.5%
Draw -2
4.5%
Žalgiris II +2
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Jonava)
Jonava -1
6.0%
Draw -1
11.6%
Žalgiris II +1
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Jonava)
Jonava +1
43.5%
Draw +1
24.2%
Žalgiris II -1
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Jonava)
Jonava +2
67.7%
Draw +2
17.8%
Žalgiris II -2
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Jonava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.40
0.73
1.00
0.27
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.11
0.60
1.60
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (7)
0.29
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.36
0.17
0.50
1.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Žalgiris II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.80
0.87
0.73
0.87
0.87
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.00
0.75
0.50
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.50
0.86
0.71
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
1.29
1.00
1.00
0.33
1.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jonava over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Jonava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.27
0.87
1.40
0.20
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
0.67
0.40
1.00
1.25
0.25
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.43
0.00
0.75
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.50
0.33
0.83
1.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Žalgiris II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.67
1.00
0.80
0.93
0.53
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.71
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (16)
1.06
0.50
1.14
0.57
1.00
0.44
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
1.00
1.25
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jonava over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
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Babrungas
BFA
Neptūną Klaipėda
Minija
Dainava
Kauno Žalgiris II
Be1 NFA
Tauras
FA Šiauliai II
Hegelmann II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Ekranas
Garliava