Jong AZ’s recent form shows a mixed bag of results, but the model still favours a home win with a 47% probability, followed by a 25% chance of a draw and a 28% chance of a Jong Utrecht victory. The expected total goals sit at 3.1, with the most likely total being two goals, a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.5% chance, reflecting the evenly matched defensive records. Jong AZ averages one goal scored and 1.64 conceded at home against weaker opposition, while Jong Utrecht averages 2.33 scored and 1.67 conceded away against stronger teams, suggesting a modest edge for the visitors in attack but a defensive advantage for the hosts. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.9%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.1%), Under 6.5 (96.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.7%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.1%), and Under 5.5 (92.2%). Each pick carries its own probability and an edge percentage where noted.
Results analysis
Jong AZ’s win extends their recent run, finishing the match 2-1 over Jong Utrecht and confirming the model’s home-win prediction. The model had given the home side a 48% probability, and its call was correct. The most likely scoreline was 2-0, but the game settled on 2-1, a result the model had anticipated with a 22% chance for the 3-goal total. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 goals at 98.9%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.6%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.7%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.1%, Under 6.5 at 96.9%, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.7%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.1%, and Under 5.5 at 92.2%. The selections largely came through, underscoring the model’s accuracy.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Jong AZ win✓ Hit
47.6%
Avg Implied 58.7% · @ 1.58
Edge
-11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.63
Pinnacle
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Bet365
1.60
Draw✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied 21.0% · @ 4.42
Edge
+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.61
Dafabet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.50
1xBet
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Jong Utrecht win✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied 20.3% · @ 4.57
Edge
+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
4.90
10Bet
4.80
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.75
Betano
4.65
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Jong AZ
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
2.03
1.07
1.87
2.27
2.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
2.10
2.50
1.25
2.50
2.67
2.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.45
1.80
1.00
1.64
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong Utrecht) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong Utrecht
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.80
1.73
2.13
1.33
1.47
vs Stronger (4)
3.00
2.00
5.00
3.00
2.33
1.67
vs Similar (26)
1.31
1.77
1.50
2.07
1.08
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong AZ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.6%
@ 1.08-2.5%
Under 1.5
16.4%
@ 6.70+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Pinnacle
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Under
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Pinnacle
7.01
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.5%
@ 1.33-8.5%
Under 2.5
38.5%
@ 3.10+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Betfair
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Pinnacle
3.15
10Bet
3.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.2%
@ 1.86-11.0%
Under 3.5
60.8%
@ 1.88+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
SBO
1.89
Superbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
Under
SBO
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.90
Betfair
1.90
10Bet
1.90
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.2%
@ 1.40-2.8%
No
36.8%
@ 2.72+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.40
No
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
William Hil
2.75
1xBet
2.73
10Bet
2.70
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%@ 9.18+6.4%
2-1 ✓
9.4%@ 7.98+3.7%
2-0
7.0%@ 10.58+2.7%
1-2
7.0%@ 14.15+3.7%
1-0
6.6%@ 11.68+2.7%
2-2
6.3%@ 11.16+2.3%
3-1
5.7%@ 10.04+1.2%
0-0
5.2%@ 22.59+3.2%
Jong AZ goals ↓
Jong Utrecht goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.2%
4.6%
3.8%
1.7%
0.6%
1
6.6%
11%
7.0%
3.1%
1.1%
2
7.0%
9.4%
6.3%
2.9%
1.0%
3
4.2%
5.7%
3.9%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.9%
2.6%
1.8%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jong AZ goals (down), columns = Jong Utrecht goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Jong AZ is 0.16 points worse than Jong Utrecht in terms of average points per game (1.05 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Jong AZ is 0.08 goals better than Jong Utrecht in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Jong AZ is 0.37 goals worse than Jong Utrecht in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.63).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Jong AZ is 6.0 percentage points better than Jong Utrecht in terms of average possession (54% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Jong AZ
For 5.2 · Against 5.8 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 9.9 · Total 21.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Jong Utrecht
For 4.1 · Against 5.7 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 11.8 · Total 25.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Jong AZ
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
9.9
11.2
3.2
3.2
3.3
23.5
24.7
22.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
11.4
10.4
12.8
3.7
3.6
3.8
23.8
25.5
21.6
vs Weaker (30)
9.9
9.5
10.2
2.9
2.8
3.1
23.3
24.0
22.7
% over line
54%
46%
62%
38%
38%
38%
66%
77%
54%
% under line
46%
54%
38%
62%
62%
62%
34%
23%
46%
This opponent (Jong Utrecht) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong Utrecht
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.7
9.3
2.8
3.0
2.6
25.5
26.3
24.8
vs Stronger (8)
8.8
9.0
8.5
3.2
4.2
2.2
28.1
28.5
27.8
vs Similar (42)
9.6
9.8
9.4
2.7
2.8
2.7
25.0
25.9
24.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
56%
44%
30%
32%
28%
74%
84%
64%
% under line
50%
44%
56%
70%
68%
72%
26%
16%
36%
This opponent (Jong AZ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.2
FC OSS
11.9
De Graafschap
11.9
Dordrecht
11.3
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Heracles
10.9
Helmond Sport
10.7
Jong PSV U21
10.6
Jong Ajax
10.6
FC Eindhoven
10.6
Jong AZ
10.5
Emmen
10.3
FC Volendam
10.3
MVV
10.2
Vitesse
10.0
Waalwijk
10.0
Roda
9.9
NAC Breda
9.8
Jong Utrecht
9.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.5
Dordrecht
4.3
FC OSS
4.1
Jong Ajax
3.9
Emmen
3.9
NAC Breda
3.9
Den Bosch
3.7
VVV Venlo
3.5
Heracles
3.5
Jong AZ
3.4
FC Volendam
3.4
Roda
3.3
Helmond Sport
3.3
Waalwijk
3.3
De Graafschap
3.3
MVV
3.2
Jong PSV U21
3.2
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Almere City FC
3.0
Jong Utrecht
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.0
Vitesse
26.7
Dordrecht
25.8
Emmen
25.7
Jong Utrecht
25.5
Helmond Sport
25.4
Jong Ajax
25.0
Roda
24.8
Heracles
24.1
VVV Venlo
23.7
Jong PSV U21
23.5
Jong AZ
23.5
Den Bosch
23.3
NAC Breda
22.9
FC Eindhoven
22.9
De Graafschap
22.7
MVV
22.5
Waalwijk
22.4
FC Volendam
22.3
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
54.6%
@ 1.71+0.5%
Under 9.5
45.4%
@ 2.02-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.74
Superbet
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.70
Under
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.02
Unibet
2.02
Pinnacle
2.02
10Bet
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.9%
Under 3.5
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
70.7%
Under 21.5
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Jong AZ or Draw✓ Hit
70.6%
Avg Implied 79.8% · @ 1.17
Edge
-9.2%
48%
25%
27%
covers Jong AZ + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
Jong AZ or Jong Utrecht✓ Hit
73.5%
Avg Implied 79.6% · @ 1.17
Edge
-6.0%
48%
25%
27%
covers Jong AZ + Jong Utrecht
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Draw or Jong Utrecht✗ Miss
55.9%
Avg Implied 40.7% · @ 2.29
Edge
+15.2%
48%
25%
27%
covers Draw + Jong Utrecht
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.38
Betano
2.37
10Bet
2.35
Unibet
2.35
William Hil
2.30
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Jong AZ over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.5%
@ 1.06-7.7%
Under
19.5%
@ 7.92+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Under
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
1xBet
7.80
Superbet
7.30
Betano
7.00
Jong AZ over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
48.7%
@ 1.38-18.5%
Under
51.3%
@ 2.82+18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.42
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Under
Unibet
2.90
Pinnacle
2.89
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.85
Jong AZ over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
22.6%
@ 2.20-19.6%
Under
77.4%
@ 1.61+19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.27
Betfair
2.25
Superbet
2.25
BetVictor
2.20
Betano
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.63
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Jong AZ over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.4%
@ 4.04-14.5%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.20+14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
4.31
BetVictor
4.20
Superbet
4.15
10Bet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Jong Utrecht over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.9%
@ 1.29+1.0%
Under
27.1%
@ 3.29-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.47
BetVictor
3.40
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.30
Betano
3.30
Jong Utrecht over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
37.5%
@ 2.43-0.8%
Under
62.5%
@ 1.51+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Unibet
2.48
Pinnacle
2.48
10Bet
2.40
Under
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.54
BetVictor
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
Superbet
1.51
Jong Utrecht over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.4%
@ 5.44-2.7%
Under
85.6%
@ 1.12+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
Under
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Jong Utrecht over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.3%
@ 13.33-2.8%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.02+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
13.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Jong AZ, so a minus line means Jong AZ give that many goals of a start and Jong Utrecht receive them. At -1, Jong AZ must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Jong AZ win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Jong AZ)Actual: Jong Utrecht
Jong AZ -2
9.8%
@ 4.08-12.2%
Draw -2
13.7%
@ 4.67-5.5%
Jong Utrecht +2
76.6%
@ 1.52+17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.15
10Bet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.95
Draw
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.70
Superbet
4.65
10Bet
4.50
Away
Unibet
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Betfair
1.50
Handicap -1 (Jong AZ)Actual: Draw
Jong AZ -1
23.4%
@ 2.33-15.0%
Draw -1
20.7%
@ 3.89-2.3%
Jong Utrecht +1
55.9%
@ 2.32+17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
2.40
Bet365
2.40
Betfair
2.38
Marathonbet
2.32
10Bet
2.30
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.84
10Bet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Away
Unibet
2.43
10Bet
2.35
Bet365
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Marathonbet
2.27
Handicap +1 (Jong AZ)Actual: Jong AZ
Jong AZ +1
70.6%
@ 1.16-7.0%
Draw +1
16.3%
@ 6.92+3.3%
Jong Utrecht -1
13.2%
@ 9.45+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
6.45
Away
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
9.50
Marathonbet
8.30
Handicap +2 (Jong AZ)Actual: Jong AZ
Jong AZ +2
86.8%
@ 1.04-2.9%
Draw +2
8.7%
@ 14.50+2.2%
Jong Utrecht -2
4.5%
@ 24.50+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Away
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
23.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Jong AZ
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.87
0.40
0.87
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
1.10
0.25
1.25
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.55
0.75
0.45
0.73
0.67
0.78
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong Utrecht) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong Utrecht
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.93
1.13
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.25
2.00
3.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.77
0.86
1.00
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong AZ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.5%
@ 1.18-10.0%
Under 0.5
31.5%
@ 4.31+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
William Hil
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.80
William Hil
4.50
BetVictor
4.40
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.33
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
31.4%
@ 1.92-17.2%
Under 1.5
68.6%
@ 1.82+17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
SBO
1.94
Marathonbet
1.93
1xBet
1.93
Under
SBO
1.90
10Bet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
William Hil
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.8%
@ 3.89-11.0%
Under 2.5
87.2%
@ 1.21+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.90
Superbet
3.80
Under
Betano
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jong AZ over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
49.6%
@ 1.44-14.9%
Under
50.4%
@ 2.62+14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
1xBet
1.45
10Bet
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.74
Unibet
2.70
10Bet
2.65
Superbet
2.55
1xBet
2.55
Jong AZ over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.0%
@ 3.11-15.8%
Under
86.0%
@ 1.32+15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Superbet
3.10
1xBet
3.10
10Bet
2.95
Under
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Jong AZ over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 7.75-9.0%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.05+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.30
Superbet
7.80
10Bet
7.50
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Jong Utrecht over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
37.6%
@ 2.10-6.7%
Under
62.4%
@ 1.67+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.19
Betano
2.12
Unibet
2.12
Superbet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.06
Under
1xBet
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Jong Utrecht over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.0%
@ 6.47-5.3%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.08+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.75
10Bet
6.50
Superbet
6.50
1xBet
6.30
Betano
6.30
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Jong Utrecht over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 19.17-3.6%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Jong AZ
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.17
0.67
1.00
1.53
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.50
1.40
1.00
1.25
1.83
1.50
vs Weaker (20)
0.90
1.05
0.55
0.91
1.33
1.22
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong Utrecht) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong Utrecht
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.97
0.80
1.00
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
2.00
0.75
3.00
0.00
1.67
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.69
1.00
0.64
1.07
0.75
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong AZ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.5%
@ 1.10-6.2%
Under 0.5
21.5%
@ 6.12+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Under
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.40
Betano
6.10
William Hil
5.80
Superbet
5.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
43.8%
@ 1.54-16.2%
Under 1.5
56.2%
@ 2.31+16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.56
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Under
Betano
2.45
1xBet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.32
Unibet
2.30
Superbet
2.27
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.4%
@ 2.68-16.3%
Under 2.5
81.6%
@ 1.43+16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Superbet
2.70
1xBet
2.62
Marathonbet
2.62
Under
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
William Hil
1.40
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jong AZ over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
57.5%
@ 1.30-14.0%
Under
42.5%
@ 3.25+14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Under
Betano
3.35
10Bet
3.30
1xBet
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Jong AZ over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.3%
@ 2.38-17.7%
Under
78.7%
@ 1.52+17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.45
10Bet
2.40
1xBet
2.38
Marathonbet
2.36
Betano
2.32
Under
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.51
10Bet
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Jong AZ over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.9%
@ 5.38-11.3%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.12+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.60
10Bet
5.50
1xBet
5.50
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Jong Utrecht over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
47.8%
@ 1.76-5.0%
Under
52.2%
@ 1.96+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.77
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Under
Betano
2.02
1xBet
1.97
10Bet
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
Jong Utrecht over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.4%
@ 4.69-7.3%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.15+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.85
Superbet
4.75
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.70
Betano
4.40
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Jong Utrecht over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 12.67-5.2%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
1.05
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
-
+9.0%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.9%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.04
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.1%
1.12
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
-
+11.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.2%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Pinnacle
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
+10.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
91.6%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
+14.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.0%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.6%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.2%
1.21
Betano
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
+11.0%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-
-2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.0%
1.32
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
+15.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
85.6%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.6%
1.08
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Pinnacle
1.10
Superbet
1.09
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
82.5%
1.36
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
BetVictor
1.36
+14.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.6%
1.43
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
William Hil
1.40
+16.3%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
80.5%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.04
-7.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.7%
1.52
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.51
10Bet
1.50
Superbet
1.49
+17.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.5%
1.10
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
-6.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
77.4%
1.61
Pinnacle
1.63
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
+19.6%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
76.6%
1.52
Unibet
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Betfair
1.50
+17.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.5%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
-6.0%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
72.9%
1.29
Betano
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
70.6%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
-9.2%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
70.6%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.14
-
-7.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Jong AZ
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ayoub Oufkir67%
Julian Oerip40%
Bendegúz Kovács33%
Rio Robbemond25%
Yoël van den Ban20%
Tycho de Wit20%
Sam De Grand0%
Kiyani Zeggen0%
Rion Ichihara0%
Jesper Zwart0%
Frej Elkjær Andersen0%
Mathijs Menu0%
Andrea Natali0%
Jerolldino Bergraaf0%
Hessel de Wit0%
Kiani Inge0%
Julian Sijbrands0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Julian Oerip40%
Ayoub Oufkir33%
Bendegúz Kovács33%
Sam De Grand0%
Kiyani Zeggen0%
Yoël van den Ban0%
Rion Ichihara0%
Jesper Zwart0%
Frej Elkjær Andersen0%
Rio Robbemond0%
Mathijs Menu0%
Andrea Natali0%
Jerolldino Bergraaf0%
Hessel de Wit0%
Kiani Inge0%
Tycho de Wit0%
Julian Sijbrands0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andrea Natali33%
Bendegúz Kovács33%
Rio Robbemond25%
Julian Oerip20%
Yoël van den Ban20%
Sam De Grand0%
Kiyani Zeggen0%
Rion Ichihara0%
Jesper Zwart0%
Frej Elkjær Andersen0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
Mathijs Menu0%
Jerolldino Bergraaf0%
Hessel de Wit0%
Kiani Inge0%
Tycho de Wit0%
Julian Sijbrands0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Julian Oerip100%
Ayoub Oufkir67%
Bendegúz Kovács33%
Sam De Grand0%
Kiyani Zeggen0%
Yoël van den Ban0%
Rion Ichihara0%
Jesper Zwart0%
Frej Elkjær Andersen0%
Rio Robbemond0%
Mathijs Menu0%
Andrea Natali0%
Jerolldino Bergraaf0%
Hessel de Wit0%
Kiani Inge0%
Tycho de Wit0%
Julian Sijbrands0%
Jong Utrecht
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emmanuel Owen67%
Bjorn Menzo40%
Jerayno Hunte33%
Mees Eppink0%
Per Kloosterboer0%
Tijn den Boggende0%
Massien Ghaddari0%
Viggo Plantinga0%
Jessey Sneijder0%
Driss Laaouina0%
Jamie Schuldes0%
Nana Gyamfi-Amoah0%
Matyas Havelka0%
Levi Rietveld0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Viggo Plantinga40%
Jamie Schuldes20%
Nana Gyamfi-Amoah20%
Mees Eppink0%
Per Kloosterboer0%
Tijn den Boggende0%
Massien Ghaddari0%
Bjorn Menzo0%
Emmanuel Owen0%
Jessey Sneijder0%
Driss Laaouina0%
Matyas Havelka0%
Levi Rietveld0%
Jerayno Hunte0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tijn den Boggende25%
Massien Ghaddari20%
Bjorn Menzo20%
Mees Eppink0%
Per Kloosterboer0%
Viggo Plantinga0%
Emmanuel Owen0%
Jessey Sneijder0%
Driss Laaouina0%
Jamie Schuldes0%
Nana Gyamfi-Amoah0%
Matyas Havelka0%
Levi Rietveld0%
Jerayno Hunte0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Emmanuel Owen67%
Massien Ghaddari20%
Mees Eppink0%
Per Kloosterboer0%
Tijn den Boggende0%
Bjorn Menzo0%
Viggo Plantinga0%
Jessey Sneijder0%
Driss Laaouina0%
Jamie Schuldes0%
Nana Gyamfi-Amoah0%
Matyas Havelka0%
Levi Rietveld0%
Jerayno Hunte0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
Jong AZ's squad is €3m more valuable than Jong Utrecht's (€5m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Jong AZ's attack is €2m more valuable than Jong Utrecht's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
Jong AZ and Jong Utrecht have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Jong AZ and Jong Utrecht have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Heracles
MVV
Almere City FC
VVV Venlo
Emmen
Jong PSV U21
Vitesse
Roda
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
Waalwijk
Den Bosch
Jong Ajax
Dordrecht
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
De Graafschap