Jong Utrecht’s recent 1-3 loss to Vitesse after two straight defeats signals a fragile start, yet their home form shows an average of three goals scored and 1.67 conceded against stronger opponents, hinting at a potent attack. Heracles, on the other hand, have won only two of their last five games but managed a 3-2 victory over Den Bosch, suggesting a resilient defence that has kept the scoreline close. The model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected total of 3.2 goals, most likely three goals in all. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.7 % chance. The match outcome favoured by the model is a home win, with home win, draw and away win probabilities of 37 %, 26 % and 37 % respectively. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (96.8 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.4 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.4 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (94.2 %), Under 6.5 (92.4 %), Over 19.5 fouls (92.1 %), Home under 3.5 goals (90.3 %), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (90.2 %).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Jong Utrecht, failed to deliver as the model had predicted a home win with a 37 % chance. Instead Heracles exploded for a 6-1 victory, extending their three-game winning streak and proving the prediction wrong. The final score of 1-6 matched the actual result, confirming the upset. The model’s selection of “Home win” was therefore incorrect. Among the suggested picks, Under 7.5 (96.8 %) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.4 %) hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.4 %) hit, Over 19.5 fouls (92.0 %) hit, Home under 3.5 goals (90.3 %) hit, and Away under 2.5 2H goals (90.2 %) hit. The remaining picks - Away under 2.5 HT goals (94.2 %) and Under 6.5 (92.4 %) - missed.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Jong Utrecht win✗ Miss
37.1%
Avg Implied 20.7% · @ 4.48
Edge
+16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.75
Dafabet
4.70
Unibet
4.70
Pinnacle
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Draw✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied 21.8% · @ 4.25
Edge
+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.50
Pinnacle
4.39
10Bet
4.33
Betfair
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
Heracles win✓ Hit
37.1%
Avg Implied 57.5% · @ 1.61
Edge
-20.4%
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
William Hil
1.65
Dafabet
1.64
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Jong Utrecht
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.57
1.87
1.80
1.33
1.33
vs Stronger (4)
3.00
2.00
5.00
3.00
2.33
1.67
vs Similar (26)
1.38
1.50
1.64
1.71
1.08
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Heracles) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heracles
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
2.23
1.67
1.73
1.33
2.73
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
2.86
0.25
2.00
1.67
4.00
vs Similar (23)
1.70
2.04
2.18
1.64
1.25
2.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong Utrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.3%
@ 1.10-1.0%
Under 1.5
16.7%
@ 5.91+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Under
Betfair
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
Pinnacle
6.42
Bet365
6.00
888Sport
6.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.0%
@ 1.39-5.7%
Under 2.5
39.0%
@ 2.79+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
888Sport
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.97
BetVictor
2.90
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.80
888Sport
2.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.7%
@ 2.01-7.8%
Under 3.5
61.3%
@ 1.75+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.08
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Betfair
2.05
Unibet
2.04
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
Marathonbet
1.78
1xBet
1.77
SBO
1.76
10Bet
1.75
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.0%
@ 1.45+0.4%
No
36.0%
@ 2.54-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Betfair
1.47
Superbet
1.46
No
Betfair
2.63
BetVictor
2.63
1xBet
2.63
Marathonbet
2.58
Superbet
2.52
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%@ 8.54+6.4%
1-2
8.4%@ 7.85+2.6%
2-1
8.4%@ 13.63+5.1%
2-2
6.6%@ 11.38+2.6%
0-1
5.7%@ 10.51+1.4%
1-0
5.7%@ 18.25+3.2%
0-0
5.3%@ 18.82+2.9%
0-2
5.3%@ 9.96+0.8%
Jong Utrecht goals ↓
Heracles goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
5.7%
5.3%
2.8%
1.1%
1
5.7%
12%
8.4%
4.4%
1.7%
2
5.3%
8.4%
6.6%
3.5%
1.4%
3
2.8%
4.4%
3.5%
1.8%
0.7%
4
1.1%
1.7%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jong Utrecht goals (down), columns = Heracles goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Jong Utrecht is 0.32 points worse than Heracles in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.53).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Jong Utrecht is 0.21 goals worse than Heracles in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Jong Utrecht is 0.19 goals worse than Heracles in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Jong Utrecht
For 4.0 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 12.4 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heracles
For 5.7 · Against 5.5 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 0.9 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 10.9 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Jong Utrecht
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.8
9.4
2.9
3.0
2.8
25.7
26.3
25.0
vs Stronger (8)
8.8
9.0
8.5
3.2
4.2
2.2
28.1
28.5
27.8
vs Similar (42)
9.7
9.9
9.5
2.8
2.8
2.9
25.2
25.9
24.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
60%
48%
32%
32%
32%
74%
84%
64%
% under line
46%
40%
52%
68%
68%
68%
26%
16%
36%
This opponent (Heracles) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heracles
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.1
11.3
3.5
3.5
3.4
24.3
24.0
24.5
vs Stronger (16)
9.9
9.9
10.0
3.8
4.3
3.1
23.3
24.1
22.3
vs Similar (34)
11.1
10.2
11.7
3.3
3.1
3.5
24.7
23.9
25.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
42%
62%
42%
46%
38%
70%
67%
73%
% under line
48%
58%
38%
58%
54%
62%
30%
33%
27%
This opponent (Jong Utrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.1
FC OSS
11.9
De Graafschap
11.7
Dordrecht
11.6
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Jong PSV U21
10.7
Heracles
10.7
Helmond Sport
10.6
Jong AZ
10.5
Jong Ajax
10.5
FC Volendam
10.4
FC Eindhoven
10.4
Emmen
10.3
MVV
10.3
Waalwijk
10.0
Roda
10.0
NAC Breda
9.8
Vitesse
9.7
Jong Utrecht
9.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.5
Dordrecht
4.3
FC OSS
4.2
Jong Ajax
3.9
NAC Breda
3.9
Emmen
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
Heracles
3.5
VVV Venlo
3.5
FC Volendam
3.4
Jong AZ
3.4
Helmond Sport
3.3
Roda
3.3
Waalwijk
3.3
De Graafschap
3.3
MVV
3.2
Jong PSV U21
3.2
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Jong Utrecht
3.0
Almere City FC
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.2
Vitesse
26.9
Emmen
25.9
Dordrecht
25.8
Jong Utrecht
25.7
Helmond Sport
25.6
Jong Ajax
25.1
Roda
24.8
Heracles
24.3
Jong PSV U21
24.0
VVV Venlo
23.8
Jong AZ
23.6
Den Bosch
23.2
NAC Breda
23.2
De Graafschap
22.8
MVV
22.7
FC Eindhoven
22.6
Waalwijk
22.5
FC Volendam
22.3
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
58.4%
@ 1.70+3.8%
Under 9.5
41.6%
@ 2.04-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Under
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Unibet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.04
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.4%
Under 3.5
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
83.7%
Under 21.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Jong Utrecht or Draw✗ Miss
58.1%
Avg Implied 41.9% · @ 2.23
Edge
+16.2%
37%
26%
37%
covers Jong Utrecht + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.30
Betano
2.30
William Hil
2.25
Unibet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Jong Utrecht or Heracles✓ Hit
76.5%
Avg Implied 78.7% · @ 1.19
Edge
-2.1%
37%
26%
37%
covers Jong Utrecht + Heracles
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.19
Draw or Heracles✓ Hit
65.3%
Avg Implied 79.4% · @ 1.18
Edge
-14.1%
37%
26%
37%
covers Draw + Heracles
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
Bet365
1.18
888Sport
1.18
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Jong Utrecht over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.2%
@ 1.32+11.8%
Under
17.8%
@ 3.14-11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.35
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Under
Pinnacle
3.32
888Sport
3.25
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Jong Utrecht over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
51.6%
@ 2.54+15.0%
Under
48.4%
@ 1.46-15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Pinnacle
2.59
Superbet
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.50
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
BetVictor
1.47
Jong Utrecht over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
25.0%
@ 5.90+9.3%
Under
75.0%
@ 1.10-9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
888Sport
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.95
Superbet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.13
888Sport
1.11
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
Jong Utrecht over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.7%
@ 15.31+3.5%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.02-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
888Sport
17.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Heracles over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
85.2%
@ 1.07-2.0%
Under
14.8%
@ 7.26+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
888Sport
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Under
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.90
Betfair
7.50
888Sport
7.50
Superbet
7.00
Heracles over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
56.8%
@ 1.43-8.0%
Under
43.2%
@ 2.64+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.45
1xBet
1.45
BetVictor
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.85
Betfair
2.75
Marathonbet
2.66
Superbet
2.65
BetVictor
2.63
Heracles over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
29.8%
@ 2.38-9.2%
Under
70.2%
@ 1.52+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.50
10Bet
2.45
888Sport
2.40
Betano
2.40
Pinnacle
2.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.53
Heracles over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
12.7%
@ 4.46-8.1%
Under
87.3%
@ 1.17+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.75
BetVictor
4.75
888Sport
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.18
888Sport
1.17
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Jong Utrecht, so a minus line means Jong Utrecht give that many goals of a start and Heracles receive them. At -1, Jong Utrecht must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Jong Utrecht win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Jong Utrecht)Actual: Heracles
Jong Utrecht -2
7.5%
@ 21.67+3.2%
Draw -2
10.5%
@ 13.33+3.5%
Heracles +2
82.0%
@ 1.05-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
23.00
Betfair
23.00
Superbet
19.00
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Superbet
11.00
Away
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Handicap -1 (Jong Utrecht)Actual: Heracles
Jong Utrecht -1
18.0%
@ 9.40+8.4%
Draw -1
16.7%
@ 6.67+3.1%
Heracles +1
65.3%
@ 1.17-11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
9.50
Marathonbet
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.60
Unibet
6.25
10Bet
6.00
Away
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Handicap +1 (Jong Utrecht)Actual: Heracles
Jong Utrecht +1
58.1%
@ 2.23+18.1%
Draw +1
18.5%
@ 3.81-4.9%
Heracles -1
23.4%
@ 2.43-13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
2.32
Bet365
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.21
Betfair
2.20
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
10Bet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Away
10Bet
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.42
Marathonbet
2.42
Betfair
2.40
Handicap +2 (Jong Utrecht)Actual: Heracles
Jong Utrecht +2
76.6%
@ 1.48+16.2%
Draw +2
12.8%
@ 4.67-6.3%
Heracles -2
10.6%
@ 4.35-9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Away
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.30
Superbet
4.20
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Jong Utrecht
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.67
1.07
0.87
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.25
2.00
3.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.58
1.00
0.71
0.42
0.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Heracles) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heracles
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.93
0.73
0.73
0.60
1.13
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.71
0.00
1.50
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.70
1.00
0.45
0.58
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong Utrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.1%
@ 1.21+0.5%
Under 0.5
22.9%
@ 3.95-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Under
BetVictor
4.10
10Bet
4.00
William Hil
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
39.6%
@ 2.03-6.4%
Under 1.5
60.4%
@ 1.73+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.12
SBO
2.12
Pinnacle
2.08
1xBet
2.03
Marathonbet
2.03
Under
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.76
William Hil
1.75
SBO
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
15.0%
@ 4.30-6.6%
Under 2.5
85.0%
@ 1.18+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Betano
4.25
William Hil
4.20
Under
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Betfair
1.17
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jong Utrecht over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
46.6%
@ 2.16+3.6%
Under
53.4%
@ 1.63-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.25
Betano
2.20
Unibet
2.18
Superbet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.13
Under
10Bet
1.67
1xBet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.64
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
Jong Utrecht over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.3%
@ 6.82-0.3%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.07+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.50
1xBet
6.80
Superbet
6.80
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Jong Utrecht over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 20.83-1.0%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.01+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Heracles over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
59.2%
@ 1.49-3.1%
Under
40.8%
@ 2.46+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.49
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Superbet
1.48
Under
Pinnacle
2.59
1xBet
2.48
Superbet
2.47
10Bet
2.45
Unibet
2.43
Heracles over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
15.7%
@ 3.31-12.3%
Under
84.3%
@ 1.29+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.45
Marathonbet
3.40
10Bet
3.30
Superbet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Under
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.29
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Heracles over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
5.8%
@ 8.20-5.5%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.04+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.80
10Bet
8.00
Betano
8.00
Superbet
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Jong Utrecht
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.90
0.80
0.93
0.87
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
2.00
0.75
3.00
0.00
1.67
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.92
0.64
1.00
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Heracles) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heracles
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.30
0.93
1.00
0.73
1.60
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.14
0.25
0.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.91
1.35
1.18
1.18
0.67
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong Utrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
84.6%
@ 1.12+1.2%
Under 0.5
15.4%
@ 5.63-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Under
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.80
Marathonbet
5.60
Betano
5.60
888Sport
5.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
53.5%
@ 1.61-4.1%
Under 1.5
46.5%
@ 2.19+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
888Sport
1.62
Superbet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Under
Betano
2.27
Marathonbet
2.23
1xBet
2.21
Bet365
2.20
William Hil
2.15
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
30.4%
@ 2.86-2.1%
Under 2.5
69.6%
@ 1.38+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
888Sport
2.90
William Hil
2.90
Superbet
2.85
Betano
2.80
Under
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
888Sport
1.36
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jong Utrecht over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
46.6%
@ 1.81-4.6%
Under
53.4%
@ 1.90+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.83
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Under
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.90
10Bet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
Superbet
1.87
Jong Utrecht over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.1%
@ 4.98-1.4%
Under
82.9%
@ 1.14+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.20
Superbet
5.00
1xBet
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.70
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Jong Utrecht over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.6%
@ 13.75-2.3%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.02+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
10Bet
15.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Heracles over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
63.0%
@ 1.33-6.8%
Under
37.0%
@ 3.08+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Under
Betano
3.15
Superbet
3.10
1xBet
3.10
10Bet
2.95
Heracles over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
31.6%
@ 2.52-5.2%
Under
68.4%
@ 1.47+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.65
Superbet
2.52
Marathonbet
2.49
Betano
2.47
1xBet
2.46
Under
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
Superbet
1.46
10Bet
1.42
Heracles over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.8%
@ 5.88-6.0%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.10+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
6.50
Superbet
5.80
1xBet
5.80
Betano
5.40
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
96.8%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
94.2%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
-
+5.5%
✗ Miss
Under 6.5
92.4%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.03
+1.0%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
90.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-3.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
90.2%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
-
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
87.3%
1.17
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.18
888Sport
1.17
+8.1%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.7%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
85.2%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
888Sport
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.0%
1.18
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Betfair
1.17
+6.6%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.6%
1.12
888Sport
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.12
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.3%
1.29
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.29
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
+12.3%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
83.9%
1.11
Pinnacle
1.13
888Sport
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
-0.1%
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.3%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.9%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
82.2%
1.32
1xBet
1.35
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Unibet
1.32
+11.8%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
82.0%
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-6.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
77.1%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
William Hil
1.20
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
76.6%
1.48
Superbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
+16.2%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
76.5%
1.19
William Hil
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.19
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
75.0%
1.10
Betano
1.13
888Sport
1.11
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
-9.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.4%
1.41
Superbet
1.44
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
70.2%
1.52
Pinnacle
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.53
+9.2%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Jong Utrecht
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emmanuel Owen67%
Bjorn Menzo40%
Jerayno Hunte33%
Mees Eppink0%
Per Kloosterboer0%
Tijn den Boggende0%
Massien Ghaddari0%
Viggo Plantinga0%
Jessey Sneijder0%
Driss Laaouina0%
Jamie Schuldes0%
Nana Gyamfi-Amoah0%
Matyas Havelka0%
Levi Rietveld0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Viggo Plantinga40%
Jamie Schuldes20%
Nana Gyamfi-Amoah20%
Mees Eppink0%
Per Kloosterboer0%
Tijn den Boggende0%
Massien Ghaddari0%
Bjorn Menzo0%
Emmanuel Owen0%
Jessey Sneijder0%
Driss Laaouina0%
Matyas Havelka0%
Levi Rietveld0%
Jerayno Hunte0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tijn den Boggende25%
Massien Ghaddari20%
Bjorn Menzo20%
Mees Eppink0%
Per Kloosterboer0%
Viggo Plantinga0%
Emmanuel Owen0%
Jessey Sneijder0%
Driss Laaouina0%
Jamie Schuldes0%
Nana Gyamfi-Amoah0%
Matyas Havelka0%
Levi Rietveld0%
Jerayno Hunte0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Emmanuel Owen67%
Massien Ghaddari20%
Mees Eppink0%
Per Kloosterboer0%
Tijn den Boggende0%
Bjorn Menzo0%
Viggo Plantinga0%
Jessey Sneijder0%
Driss Laaouina0%
Jamie Schuldes0%
Nana Gyamfi-Amoah0%
Matyas Havelka0%
Levi Rietveld0%
Jerayno Hunte0%
Heracles
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tristan van Gilst100%
Jean-Paul N'Djoli75%
Mario Borac33%
Damon Mirani25%
David Vicente25%
Djevencio van der Kust25%
Sem Scheperman25%
Chafik Abbas0%
Mike te Wierik0%
Thomas Bruns0%
David Tomić0%
Fabian De Keijzer0%
Maurice Wrusch0%
Manny Rodríguez0%
Max Hauswirth0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jean-Paul N'Djoli50%
Chafik Abbas25%
Mike te Wierik25%
Damon Mirani0%
Thomas Bruns0%
David Vicente0%
David Tomić0%
Fabian De Keijzer0%
Djevencio van der Kust0%
Sem Scheperman0%
Tristan van Gilst0%
Maurice Wrusch0%
Manny Rodríguez0%
Max Hauswirth0%
Mario Borac0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Chafik Abbas50%
Djevencio van der Kust50%
Thomas Bruns25%
David Vicente25%
Tristan van Gilst25%
Jean-Paul N'Djoli25%
Max Hauswirth25%
Damon Mirani0%
Mike te Wierik0%
David Tomić0%
Fabian De Keijzer0%
Sem Scheperman0%
Maurice Wrusch0%
Manny Rodríguez0%
Mario Borac0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tristan van Gilst100%
Jean-Paul N'Djoli75%
Mario Borac33%
Chafik Abbas25%
Max Hauswirth25%
Damon Mirani0%
Mike te Wierik0%
Thomas Bruns0%
David Vicente0%
David Tomić0%
Fabian De Keijzer0%
Djevencio van der Kust0%
Sem Scheperman0%
Maurice Wrusch0%
Manny Rodríguez0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
Jong Utrecht's squad is €6m less valuable than Heracles's (€2m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Jong Utrecht's attack is €3m less valuable than Heracles's (€1m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
Jong Utrecht and Heracles have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Jong Utrecht's defence is €2m less valuable than Heracles's (€1m vs €3m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
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MVV
Almere City FC
VVV Venlo
Emmen
Jong PSV U21
Vitesse
Roda
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
Jong AZ
Waalwijk
Den Bosch
Jong Ajax
Dordrecht
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
De Graafschap