In the Netherlands: Eerste Divisie, Jong Utrecht will face Vitesse on August 17. Recent form suggests a storyline to consider, as Jong Utrecht is coming off a defeat, while Vitesse drew their last match. However, the numbers point to a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.3 goals and Jong Utrecht conceding an average of 2 goals at home, particularly against stronger opponents. Vitesse, meanwhile, scores an average of 2.5 goals away, especially against weaker opponents.
Jong Utrecht has a 30% chance of winning at home, a 25% chance of drawing, and a 45% chance of losing to Vitesse. The model predicts an away win as the favourite. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 11%. Jong Utrecht scores an average of 2.1 goals at home, while Vitesse concedes 0.5 goals away to weaker opponents. The model's selections include Over 1.5 goals with 84.9% probability, Over 21.5 fouls with 80.7% probability, and Home or Away with 75.3% probability.
Results analysis
The win extends Vitesse’s run, with a 1-3 triumph over Jong Utrecht. The model’s favourite, an away win at 45 % probability, proved correct, and the final score matched the predicted 1-3 result. The model’s selections performed strongly: Home under 3.5 goals hit with 93.9 % confidence, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 90.3 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 88.8 %, Away +2 handicap hit at 85.8 %, Over 1.5 hit at 84.9 %, Away over 0.5 goals hit at 83.8 %, Under 5.5 cards hit at 83.6 %, and Home under 2.5 goals hit at 81.9 %. All eight picks settled, each achieving its projected outcome.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Jong Utrecht win✗ Miss
30.1%
Avg Implied 28.4% · @ 3.27
Edge
+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.40
Unibet
3.35
Dafabet
3.35
Betano
3.35
Marathonbet
3.32
Draw✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied 25.9% · @ 3.58
Edge
-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.80
Pinnacle
3.72
Dafabet
3.70
10Bet
3.65
Unibet
3.60
Vitesse win✓ Hit
45.2%
Avg Implied 45.7% · @ 2.03
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.10
Dafabet
2.08
SBO
2.06
Betano
2.05
888Sport
2.05
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Jong Utrecht
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.53
1.93
1.71
1.25
1.38
vs Stronger (4)
3.00
2.00
5.00
3.00
2.33
1.67
vs Similar (26)
1.35
1.46
1.69
1.62
1.00
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Vitesse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vitesse
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.33
1.69
1.50
1.36
1.14
vs Stronger (3)
2.33
0.33
2.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
1.46
1.46
1.57
1.64
1.33
1.25
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong Utrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.9%
@ 1.18+6.0%
Under 1.5
15.1%
@ 4.40-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
888Sport
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Under
Betfair
5.00
Pinnacle
4.53
Unibet
4.50
BetVictor
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.7%
@ 1.62+6.1%
Under 2.5
36.3%
@ 2.19-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.67
888Sport
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
10Bet
1.62
BetVictor
1.62
Under
Betfair
2.30
Unibet
2.28
Betano
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.22
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.6%
@ 2.57+5.1%
Under 3.5
58.4%
@ 1.47-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
888Sport
2.63
Pinnacle
2.62
Bet365
2.62
BetVictor
2.60
Under
Betano
1.52
10Bet
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Betfair
1.47
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.4%
@ 1.53+4.9%
No
34.6%
@ 2.33-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.57
William Hil
1.55
1xBet
1.53
BetVictor
1.53
Betfair
1.53
No
Betfair
2.45
Unibet
2.38
10Bet
2.35
1xBet
2.35
Betano
2.35
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%@ 6.75+4.3%
1-2
9.1%@ 7.91+3.4%
2-1
7.3%@ 10.51+3.0%
2-2
6.6%@ 10.96+2.5%
0-2
6.2%@ 10.66+2.0%
0-1
5.8%@ 9.09+0.9%
1-3 ✓
5.5%@ 13.50+2.2%
0-0
4.8%@ 12.91+1.3%
Jong Utrecht goals ↓
Vitesse goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
5.8%
6.2%
3.8%
1.7%
1
4.5%
11%
9.1%
5.5%
2.5%
2
4.0%
7.3%
6.6%
4.0%
1.8%
3
2.0%
3.6%
3.2%
2.0%
0.9%
4
0.7%
1.3%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jong Utrecht goals (down), columns = Vitesse goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Jong Utrecht is 0.26 points worse than Vitesse in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Jong Utrecht is 0.16 goals worse than Vitesse in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.68).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Jong Utrecht is 0.18 goals worse than Vitesse in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.45).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Jong Utrecht is 1.2 percentage points better than Vitesse in terms of average possession (48% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Jong Utrecht
For 4.0 · Against 5.9 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 12.7 · Total 26.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vitesse
For 5.2 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 12.8 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Jong Utrecht
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.9
9.7
2.9
3.0
2.7
25.6
26.5
24.7
vs Stronger (9)
9.9
9.0
10.6
3.1
4.2
2.2
27.0
28.5
25.8
vs Similar (41)
9.8
10.1
9.5
2.8
2.8
2.9
25.3
26.1
24.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
62%
50%
32%
33%
31%
72%
83%
62%
% under line
44%
38%
50%
68%
67%
69%
28%
17%
38%
This opponent (Vitesse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vitesse
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.5
10.1
4.3
4.6
4.1
27.1
27.8
26.5
vs Stronger (5)
9.8
10.3
9.0
4.4
4.7
4.0
26.0
29.0
21.5
vs Similar (44)
10.0
9.4
10.5
4.4
4.5
4.2
27.5
27.6
27.5
vs Weaker (1)
4.0
-
4.0
3.0
-
3.0
16.0
-
16.0
% over line
56%
54%
58%
62%
68%
56%
90%
92%
88%
% under line
44%
46%
42%
38%
32%
44%
10%
8%
12%
This opponent (Jong Utrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.1
FC OSS
11.9
De Graafschap
11.8
Dordrecht
11.7
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Jong AZ
10.9
Jong PSV U21
10.7
Heracles
10.7
Helmond Sport
10.7
FC Volendam
10.5
Jong Ajax
10.5
Emmen
10.4
FC Eindhoven
10.4
MVV
10.3
Waalwijk
10.2
Roda
9.9
NAC Breda
9.9
Jong Utrecht
9.8
Vitesse
9.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.4
Dordrecht
4.2
FC OSS
4.2
Jong Ajax
3.9
Emmen
3.9
NAC Breda
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
Heracles
3.5
VVV Venlo
3.5
Helmond Sport
3.4
Roda
3.3
Jong AZ
3.3
FC Volendam
3.3
Waalwijk
3.2
Jong PSV U21
3.2
De Graafschap
3.2
MVV
3.1
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Almere City FC
3.0
Jong Utrecht
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.2
Vitesse
27.0
Emmen
25.9
Helmond Sport
25.9
Jong Utrecht
25.6
Dordrecht
25.5
Roda
25.1
Jong Ajax
24.6
Heracles
24.3
Jong PSV U21
24.0
VVV Venlo
23.7
Jong AZ
23.4
Den Bosch
23.4
NAC Breda
22.9
FC Eindhoven
22.7
De Graafschap
22.7
MVV
22.6
Waalwijk
22.4
FC Volendam
22.1
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.76
Unibet
1.76
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Under
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
10Bet
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Jong Utrecht or Draw✗ Miss
54.8%
Avg Implied 53.3% · @ 1.75
Edge
+1.4%
30%
25%
45%
covers Jong Utrecht + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Betano
1.80
Unibet
1.77
SBO
1.75
Jong Utrecht or Vitesse✓ Hit
75.3%
Avg Implied 74.5% · @ 1.25
Edge
+0.7%
30%
25%
45%
covers Jong Utrecht + Vitesse
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Betfair
1.25
Draw or Vitesse✓ Hit
69.9%
Avg Implied 72.1% · @ 1.30
Edge
-2.2%
30%
25%
45%
covers Draw + Vitesse
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.33
888Sport
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Jong Utrecht over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.8%
@ 1.30+5.3%
Under
23.2%
@ 3.25-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
888Sport
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Betano
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.40
Betano
3.30
10Bet
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Marathonbet
3.26
Jong Utrecht over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
42.9%
@ 2.45+5.0%
Under
57.1%
@ 1.50-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.57
888Sport
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.47
Under
10Bet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Jong Utrecht over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.1%
@ 5.76+2.1%
Under
81.9%
@ 1.10-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.05
888Sport
6.00
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
5.70
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Jong Utrecht over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.1%
@ 13.56-0.9%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.02+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
17.00
Bet365
17.00
Betano
10.25
Betfair
10.00
Under
Betfair
1.03
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Vitesse over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.8%
@ 1.15+3.4%
Under
16.2%
@ 4.73-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
10Bet
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.90
BetVictor
4.75
1xBet
4.60
Vitesse over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
54.3%
@ 1.80+2.7%
Under
45.7%
@ 1.92-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.86
888Sport
1.85
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Under
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
2.00
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.91
Vitesse over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
27.5%
@ 3.51+1.2%
Under
72.5%
@ 1.25-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.75
BetVictor
3.70
Pinnacle
3.68
Marathonbet
3.56
10Bet
3.55
Under
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Unibet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Vitesse over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.2%
@ 7.74-0.9%
Under
88.8%
@ 1.07+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
888Sport
9.00
Betfair
7.50
Betano
6.60
1xBet
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
888Sport
1.06
1xBet
1.06
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Jong Utrecht, so a minus line means Jong Utrecht give that many goals of a start and Vitesse receive them. At -1, Jong Utrecht must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Jong Utrecht win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Jong Utrecht)Actual: Vitesse
Jong Utrecht -2
5.2%
@ 16.00-0.5%
Draw -2
9.0%
@ 10.00-0.2%
Vitesse +2
85.8%
@ 1.08+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
17.00
Bet365
15.00
Draw
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Away
Bet365
1.09
Betfair
1.07
Handicap -1 (Jong Utrecht)Actual: Vitesse
Jong Utrecht -1
14.2%
@ 6.80+1.0%
Draw -1
15.8%
@ 5.11-1.7%
Vitesse +1
69.9%
@ 1.30+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.75
10Bet
6.25
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
Unibet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Away
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
Unibet
1.27
Handicap +1 (Jong Utrecht)Actual: Vitesse
Jong Utrecht +1
54.8%
@ 1.76+3.8%
Draw +1
20.0%
@ 3.90-3.0%
Vitesse -1
25.2%
@ 3.44-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.73
Betfair
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
3.96
10Bet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.65
Away
10Bet
3.60
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.20
Handicap +2 (Jong Utrecht)Actual: Draw
Jong Utrecht +2
74.8%
@ 1.25+3.0%
Draw +2
14.0%
@ 5.77-1.6%
Vitesse -2
11.3%
@ 7.13-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Draw
Marathonbet
6.15
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.50
Unibet
5.20
Away
10Bet
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.40
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.25
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Jong Utrecht
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
1.07
0.86
0.44
0.50
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.25
2.00
3.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.58
1.00
0.69
0.38
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Vitesse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vitesse
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.57
1.19
0.56
0.64
0.57
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.33
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.92
0.62
1.14
0.57
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong Utrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jong Utrecht over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong Utrecht over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong Utrecht over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vitesse over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vitesse over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vitesse over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Jong Utrecht
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.87
0.86
0.86
0.81
0.88
vs Stronger (4)
2.00
0.75
3.00
0.00
1.67
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.88
0.69
0.92
0.62
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Vitesse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vitesse
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.77
0.50
0.94
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.85
0.43
1.07
0.67
0.58
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong Utrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jong Utrecht over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong Utrecht over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong Utrecht over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vitesse over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vitesse over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vitesse over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 3.5 goals
93.9%
1.02
Betfair
1.03
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
88.8%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
888Sport
1.06
1xBet
1.06
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
85.8%
1.08
Bet365
1.09
Betfair
1.07
-
-
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.9%
1.18
Betano
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
888Sport
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
83.8%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
10Bet
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
81.9%
1.10
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.11
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
76.8%
1.30
1xBet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
888Sport
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Betano
1.30
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.3%
1.25
888Sport
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Betfair
1.25
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
74.8%
1.25
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
+3.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
72.5%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Unibet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
-1.2%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Jong Utrecht
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emmanuel Owen67%
Bjorn Menzo40%
Jerayno Hunte33%
Mees Eppink0%
Per Kloosterboer0%
Tijn den Boggende0%
Massien Ghaddari0%
Viggo Plantinga0%
Jessey Sneijder0%
Driss Laaouina0%
Jamie Schuldes0%
Nana Gyamfi-Amoah0%
Matyas Havelka0%
Levi Rietveld0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Viggo Plantinga40%
Jamie Schuldes20%
Nana Gyamfi-Amoah20%
Mees Eppink0%
Per Kloosterboer0%
Tijn den Boggende0%
Massien Ghaddari0%
Bjorn Menzo0%
Emmanuel Owen0%
Jessey Sneijder0%
Driss Laaouina0%
Matyas Havelka0%
Levi Rietveld0%
Jerayno Hunte0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tijn den Boggende25%
Massien Ghaddari20%
Bjorn Menzo20%
Mees Eppink0%
Per Kloosterboer0%
Viggo Plantinga0%
Emmanuel Owen0%
Jessey Sneijder0%
Driss Laaouina0%
Jamie Schuldes0%
Nana Gyamfi-Amoah0%
Matyas Havelka0%
Levi Rietveld0%
Jerayno Hunte0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Emmanuel Owen67%
Massien Ghaddari20%
Mees Eppink0%
Per Kloosterboer0%
Tijn den Boggende0%
Bjorn Menzo0%
Viggo Plantinga0%
Jessey Sneijder0%
Driss Laaouina0%
Jamie Schuldes0%
Nana Gyamfi-Amoah0%
Matyas Havelka0%
Levi Rietveld0%
Jerayno Hunte0%
Vitesse
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Naoufal Bannis75%
Ayman Sellouf25%
Filipe de Ferreira25%
Marco Schikora0%
Valon Zumberi0%
Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz0%
Marcus Steffen0%
Chiel Olde Keizer0%
Pontus Dahbo0%
Nino Zonneveld0%
Mathijs Marschalk0%
Eduard Probst0%
Omar Achouitar0%
Maximilian Brüll0%
João Pinto0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Chiel Olde Keizer50%
Nino Zonneveld33%
Mathijs Marschalk33%
Ayman Sellouf25%
Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz25%
Naoufal Bannis0%
Marco Schikora0%
Valon Zumberi0%
Filipe de Ferreira0%
Marcus Steffen0%
Pontus Dahbo0%
Eduard Probst0%
Omar Achouitar0%
Maximilian Brüll0%
João Pinto0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Filipe de Ferreira50%
Naoufal Bannis25%
Marco Schikora25%
Omar Achouitar25%
Ayman Sellouf0%
Valon Zumberi0%
Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz0%
Marcus Steffen0%
Chiel Olde Keizer0%
Pontus Dahbo0%
Nino Zonneveld0%
Mathijs Marschalk0%
Eduard Probst0%
Maximilian Brüll0%
João Pinto0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Naoufal Bannis75%
Ayman Sellouf25%
Chiel Olde Keizer25%
Marco Schikora0%
Valon Zumberi0%
Filipe de Ferreira0%
Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz0%
Marcus Steffen0%
Pontus Dahbo0%
Nino Zonneveld0%
Mathijs Marschalk0%
Eduard Probst0%
Omar Achouitar0%
Maximilian Brüll0%
João Pinto0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
Jong Utrecht's squad is €5m less valuable than Vitesse's (€2m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Jong Utrecht's attack is €3m less valuable than Vitesse's (€1m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
Jong Utrecht and Vitesse have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Jong Utrecht's defence is €1m less valuable than Vitesse's (€1m vs €2m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Heracles
MVV
Almere City FC
VVV Venlo
Emmen
Jong PSV U21
Roda
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
Jong AZ
Waalwijk
Den Bosch
Jong Ajax
Dordrecht
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
De Graafschap