Juvenes / Dogana will face Folgore in a match where the model favours an away win. The probability that Folgore will triumph stands at 54 %, with a draw at 25 % and a home win at 21 %. The expected total of goals is three, yet the most likely total number of goals is two, with a 23 % chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 11.5 % probability. Juvenes / Dogana, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.62 conceded. Folgore, on the road versus a similar strength side, averages 2.5 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 99.1 %, Under 7.5 at 98.8 %, Over 21.5 fouls at 97.4 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.3 %, Under 6.5 at 96.6 %, Over 23.5 fouls at 93.9 %, Under 11.5 corners at 92.7 %, and Under 5.5 at 91.6 %. The home side’s recent form shows a loss-draw-draw-win-draw streak after a 0-2 defeat to Virtus, while Folgore’s last five are loss-win-win-win-draw following a 1-3 loss to Domagnano.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Juvenes / Dogana win
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Folgore win
48.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Juvenes / Dogana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.20
1.38
1.44
1.00
0.93
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.42
0.40
1.80
0.57
1.14
vs Similar (13)
1.92
1.31
2.12
1.50
1.60
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Folgore) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Folgore
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
1.17
2.27
1.20
2.13
1.13
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.67
1.33
1.67
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (14)
1.86
1.29
1.43
1.43
2.29
1.14
vs Weaker (10)
3.30
0.70
4.00
0.60
2.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.5%
Under 1.5
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.2%
Under 2.5
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.8%
Under 3.5
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.3%
No
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
7.7%
0-1
7.6%
2-1
6.7%
2-2
6.0%
0-0
5.9%
1-3
5.7%
Juvenes / Dogana goals ↓
Folgore goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
7.6%
7.7%
4.5%
2.0%
1
5.0%
12%
9.6%
5.7%
2.5%
2
3.8%
6.7%
6.0%
3.5%
1.6%
3
1.6%
2.8%
2.5%
1.5%
0.7%
4
0.5%
0.9%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Juvenes / Dogana goals (down), columns = Folgore goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.43
Virtus
2.34
Tre Penne
2.17
La Fiorita
1.97
Folgore
1.88
Domagnano
1.57
Fiorentino
1.53
Cosmos
1.42
Juvenes / Dogana
1.18
Libertas
1.16
San Giovanni
1.03
Pennarossa
1.03
Faetano
0.73
San Marino Academy
0.53
Cailungo
0.37
Murata
0.23
Juvenes / Dogana is 0.69 points worse than Folgore in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Virtus
2.37
Folgore
2.16
Tre Penne
2.14
Tre Fiori
2.10
La Fiorita
2.00
Domagnano
1.89
Fiorentino
1.25
Juvenes / Dogana
1.12
Libertas
1.06
Cosmos
1.00
Pennarossa
0.94
San Giovanni
0.80
San Marino Academy
0.77
Cailungo
0.77
Faetano
0.73
Murata
0.67
Juvenes / Dogana is 1.04 goals worse than Folgore in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 2.16).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tre Fiori
0.43
Tre Penne
0.60
Virtus
0.69
Cosmos
0.70
La Fiorita
0.89
Folgore
1.12
Juvenes / Dogana
1.24
Domagnano
1.26
Fiorentino
1.41
San Giovanni
1.43
Pennarossa
1.81
Faetano
1.83
San Marino Academy
2.00
Libertas
2.06
Cailungo
2.37
Murata
2.77
Juvenes / Dogana is 0.12 goals worse than Folgore in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Tre Fiori
64%
Tre Penne
60%
San Giovanni
53%
San Marino Academy
51%
Libertas
49%
Juvenes / Dogana
47%
Fiorentino
40%
Cosmos
36%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Juvenes / Dogana
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Folgore
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Juvenes / Dogana
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
4.0
-
4.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
32.0
-
32.0
vs Stronger (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
4.0
-
4.0
0.2
0.0
0.5
32.0
-
32.0
vs Weaker (8)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
-
0%
2%
0%
4%
100%
-
100%
% under line
100%
-
100%
98%
100%
96%
0%
-
0%
This opponent (Folgore) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Folgore
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
5.0
5.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (10)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (19)
5.0
5.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
100%
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Libertas
12.0
San Marino Academy
12.0
Fiorentino
10.0
Cosmos
8.7
Tre Penne
7.8
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Fiori
7.7
Folgore
5.0
Cailungo
5.0
San Giovanni
4.0
Juvenes / Dogana
4.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
5.3
San Giovanni
5.0
Juvenes / Dogana
5.0
Cosmos
4.7
La Fiorita
4.5
Fiorentino
4.0
Tre Penne
3.6
Libertas
3.0
San Marino Academy
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fiorentino
34.0
San Giovanni
32.0
Juvenes / Dogana
32.0
Cosmos
30.0
Tre Penne
28.5
Tre Fiori
28.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
21.2%
Under 9.5
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
61.4%
Under 3.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
97.4%
Under 21.5
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Juvenes / Dogana or Draw
51.3%
Avg Implied -
26%
25%
49%
covers Juvenes / Dogana + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana or Folgore
74.5%
Avg Implied -
26%
25%
49%
covers Juvenes / Dogana + Folgore
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Folgore
74.2%
Avg Implied -
26%
25%
49%
covers Draw + Folgore
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 0.5
Over
71.3%
Under
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 1.5
Over
35.4%
Under
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 2.5
Over
13.1%
Under
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 0.5
Over
83.1%
Under
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 1.5
Over
53.0%
Under
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 2.5
Over
26.3%
Under
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 3.5
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Juvenes / Dogana, so a minus line means Juvenes / Dogana give that many goals of a start and Folgore receive them. At -1, Juvenes / Dogana must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Juvenes / Dogana win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Juvenes / Dogana)
Juvenes / Dogana -2
3.6%
Draw -2
7.5%
Folgore +2
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Juvenes / Dogana)
Juvenes / Dogana -1
11.1%
Draw -1
14.7%
Folgore +1
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Juvenes / Dogana)
Juvenes / Dogana +1
51.3%
Draw +1
21.4%
Folgore -1
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Juvenes / Dogana)
Juvenes / Dogana +2
72.7%
Draw +2
15.2%
Folgore -2
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Juvenes / Dogana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.62
0.50
0.64
0.29
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
0.67
0.40
0.80
0.29
0.57
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.31
0.88
0.50
1.20
0.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Folgore) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Folgore
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.13
0.60
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.86
0.57
0.86
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (10)
1.60
0.30
2.20
0.40
1.00
0.20
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.7%
Under 0.5
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.6%
Under 1.5
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.1%
Under 2.5
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.1%
Under
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.1%
Under
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 0.5 HT
Over
53.4%
Under
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.7%
Under
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Juvenes / Dogana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.75
0.94
0.36
0.64
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.29
0.57
vs Similar (13)
0.92
1.00
1.25
1.00
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.40
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Folgore) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Folgore
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.53
1.13
0.60
1.33
0.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.43
0.86
0.57
1.43
0.29
vs Weaker (10)
1.70
0.40
1.80
0.20
1.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.6%
Under 0.5
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.4%
Under 1.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.7%
Under 2.5
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 0.5 2H
Over
41.2%
Under
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.6%
Under
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 0.5 2H
Over
64.7%
Under
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 1.5 2H
Over
27.4%
Under
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Over 19.5 fouls
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Juvenes / Dogana and Folgore have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Juvenes / Dogana and Folgore have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Juvenes / Dogana and Folgore have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Juvenes / Dogana and Folgore have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →