Juvenes / Dogana’s defensive record at home shows they concede more than they score, with an average of 1.33 goals allowed and only 0.83 scored against stronger opposition. La Fiorita, on the road, has been prolific, averaging 2.55 goals for and just 0.45 against weaker sides. The model projects a tight, low-scoring affair, expecting an average of 2.0 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 14.9% chance. The probability split favours an away win at 36%, a draw at 33%, and a home win at 30%. The model’s pick is an away win. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.4%), Under 5.5 (98.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.7%), Under 4.5 (94.7%), Home under 2.5 goals (93.0%), and Away under 2.5 goals (90.8%). Juvenes / Dogana are coming off a 0-2 loss to Virtus, while La Fiorita arrive after a 3-1 win over Tre Fiori.
Results analysis
The win for La Fiorita extends their recent run, coming off a victory against Tre Fiori, while Juvenes / Dogana return from a defeat to Virtus. The model predicted an away win with a 36% probability, and that call was correct as the final score was 1-2 in favour of La Fiorita. The most likely total was two goals, a 28% chance, and the match delivered exactly that. Every suggested pick also hit: Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.4%), Under 5.5 (98.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.7%), Under 4.5 (94.7%), Home under 2.5 goals (93.0%) and Away under 2.5 goals (90.8%). The model’s selections performed consistently with the outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Juvenes / Dogana win✗ Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita win✓ Hit
36.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Juvenes / Dogana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.20
1.21
1.29
1.19
1.12
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
1.31
0.83
1.33
0.57
1.29
vs Similar (13)
1.54
1.31
1.50
1.33
1.57
1.29
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (La Fiorita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
La Fiorita
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.80
1.81
0.94
2.21
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.17
1.33
1.33
1.33
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (24)
2.21
0.67
1.92
0.85
2.55
0.45
Clean sheet %
43% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
60.8%
Under 1.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
32.4%
Under 2.5
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.3%
Under 3.5
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
41.2%
No
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
14.9%
1-1
14.8%
0-1
13.0%
1-0
11.4%
0-2
7.6%
1-2 ✓
7.1%
2-1
6.4%
2-0
6.0%
Juvenes / Dogana goals ↓
La Fiorita goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
13%
7.6%
2.7%
0.7%
1
11%
15%
7.1%
2.5%
0.7%
2
6.0%
6.4%
3.4%
1.2%
0.3%
3
1.9%
2.0%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.4%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Juvenes / Dogana goals (down), columns = La Fiorita goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Penne
3.00
Virtus
2.43
La Fiorita
1.75
Juvenes / Dogana
1.50
Tre Fiori
1.43
San Giovanni
1.25
Faetano
1.00
Folgore
1.00
Cosmos
0.50
Murata
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Cailungo
0.00
Fiorentino
0.00
Libertas
0.00
Juvenes / Dogana is 0.25 points worse than La Fiorita in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tre Penne
2.67
Tre Fiori
1.57
Virtus
1.57
San Giovanni
1.00
La Fiorita
1.00
Cosmos
1.00
Faetano
0.75
Folgore
0.75
Juvenes / Dogana
0.75
Cailungo
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Murata
0.00
Fiorentino
0.00
Libertas
0.00
Juvenes / Dogana is 0.25 goals worse than La Fiorita in terms of goals scored per game (0.75 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
La Fiorita
0.25
Virtus
0.43
Tre Penne
0.50
Murata
0.50
Tre Fiori
0.71
Folgore
1.00
Juvenes / Dogana
1.00
Domagnano
1.00
Pennarossa
1.00
Cosmos
1.50
Fiorentino
1.50
San Giovanni
1.75
Faetano
1.75
Libertas
2.50
Cailungo
5.00
Juvenes / Dogana is 0.75 goals worse than La Fiorita in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Juvenes / Dogana or Draw✗ Miss
63.7%
Avg Implied -
30%
33%
36%
covers Juvenes / Dogana + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana or La Fiorita✓ Hit
66.5%
Avg Implied -
30%
33%
36%
covers Juvenes / Dogana + La Fiorita
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or La Fiorita✓ Hit
69.8%
Avg Implied -
30%
33%
36%
covers Draw + La Fiorita
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
61.0%
Under
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
24.3%
Under
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
65.3%
Under
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
28.6%
Under
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Juvenes / Dogana, so a minus line means Juvenes / Dogana give that many goals of a start and La Fiorita receive them. At -1, Juvenes / Dogana must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Juvenes / Dogana win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (La Fiorita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
La Fiorita
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.30
0.56
0.44
0.79
0.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (24)
0.75
0.17
0.54
0.31
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Juvenes / Dogana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.64
0.79
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
0.77
0.50
0.83
0.29
0.71
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.69
0.67
0.67
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (La Fiorita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
La Fiorita
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.50
1.25
0.50
1.43
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.50
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (24)
1.46
0.50
1.38
0.54
1.55
0.45
Clean sheet %
57% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (31)
€1m
VIR (33)
€1m
LF (33)
€1m
TP (26)
€1m
FOL (28)
€1m
DOM (27)
€1m
FIO (25)
€1m
COS (34)
€1m
J/D (27)
€1m
PEN (31)
€1m
LIB (34)
€1m
SG (27)
€1m
FAE (32)
€1m
CAI (28)
€0m
MUR (35)
€0m
Juvenes / Dogana and La Fiorita have a similar squad value (both €1m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →