Juvenes / Dogana vs Tre Penne Result & Analysis

The model points to an away win as the clear favourite, giving Tre Penne a 62% chance to lift the trophy while Juvenes / Dogana sit at 13% and a draw is 25%. The 62% edge comes from Tre Penne’s dominant away form, scoring 2.6 goals per game and conceding only 0.6 against weaker opponents, whereas Juvenes / Dogana have struggled at home, netting only 0.25 and leaking 1.75 goals to stronger sides. The expected total is 2.5 goals, with the most likely scoreline 0-1, a 13.8% probability. The model also projects a 76.3% chance of Under 3.5 goals and a 71.8% chance of Over 1.5 goals. The suggested picks list Under 3.5 and Over 1.5, each with its own probability and no edge percentages. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the prediction of an away win.

The 0-1 victory for Tre Penne extended their two-game winning run, confirming the model’s prediction that the away side would triumph. The pre-match favourite, Away win, was chosen with a 62% probability and proved correct. The model’s suggested picks also performed well: Under 3.5, with a 76.3% probability, hit, while Over 1.5, at 71.8%, missed. The match’s most likely scoreline was 0-1, a 13.8% chance, and the total goals fell below the 2.5 expectation, aligning with the Under 3.5 pick. Overall, the model’s call and selections were largely accurate, reflecting the contrasting form of the two sides.