The model favours an away win for Tre Penne, with a 43% chance of victory, a 29% chance of a draw, and a 28% chance of a home win. The expected total goals hover around 2.5, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.9% probability. Juvenes / Dogana, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.62 conceded, while Tre Penne, on the road against a weaker side, averages 2.0 goals scored and only 0.43 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls (99.1%), Over 21.5 fouls (97.4%), Over 23.5 fouls (93.9%), Under 11.5 corners (92.7%), Over 25.5 fouls (87.7%), Under 10.5 corners (87.2%), Over 2.5 cards (79.7%), and Under 9.5 corners (78.9%). The home side’s recent form shows a win, a loss, a draw, a draw, and a win, coming off a 4-0 victory over Faetano, while the away side is on a two-game winning streak, having beaten San Giovanni 3-2.
The match ended in a 1-1 draw, a shock for the pre-match favourite, the away win, which the model had given a 43% chance. The prediction was wrong. Juvenes / Dogana, coming off a win and on a five-match run of WLDDW, were unable to convert their home advantage, while Tre Penne, on a two-game winning streak and with an average of 2.0 goals scored away, managed only a single goal. The final score of 1-1 matched the model’s most likely total of 2 goals, but the outcome was a draw, not the predicted away victory.
Juvenes / Dogana| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 1.20 | 1.13 | 1.20 | 1.07 | 1.20 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.92 | 1.75 | 1.00 | 1.62 | 0.75 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (13) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0.83 | 0.71 | 1.14 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.80 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Tre Penne| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 0.97 | 2.06 | 1.00 | 1.21 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.50 | 1.33 | 0.60 | 1.20 | 0.43 | 1.43 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 2.44 | 0.72 | 2.73 | 0.91 | 2.00 | 0.43 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
| Tre Penne goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.5% | 10% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 1.4% |
| 1 | 7.7% | 14% | 8.9% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| 2 | 4.8% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Juvenes / Dogana
Tre Penne
Juvenes / Dogana| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 4.0 | - | 4.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 32.0 | - | 32.0 |
| vs Stronger (17) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 4.0 | - | 4.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 32.0 | - | 32.0 |
| vs Weaker (8) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 0% | - | 0% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 100% | - | 100% |
| % under line | 100% | - | 100% | 98% | 100% | 96% | 0% | - | 0% |
Tre Penne| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.0 | 10.0 | - | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 34.0 | 34.0 | - |
| vs Stronger (2) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (29) | 10.0 | 10.0 | - | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 34.0 | 34.0 | - |
| % over line | 100% | 100% | - | 2% | 4% | 0% | 100% | 100% | - |
| % under line | 0% | 0% | - | 98% | 96% | 100% | 0% | 0% | - |
Juvenes / Dogana| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.20 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.17 | 0.58 | 0.12 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.38 | 0.54 | 0.83 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.60 | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
Tre Penne| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.40 | 1.06 | 0.31 | 0.86 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.25 | 0.67 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 1.44 | 0.22 | 1.27 | 0.27 | 1.71 | 0.14 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
Juvenes / Dogana| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.70 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.87 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.75 | 1.17 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.50 | 1.75 |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.62 | 0.46 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.71 | 0.43 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.20 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Tre Penne| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.57 | 1.00 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.25 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.45 | 0.64 | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 99.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 97.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 93.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 92.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 25.5 fouls | 87.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 10.5 corners | 87.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 2.5 cards | 79.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 9.5 corners | 78.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 75.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 74.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 72.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/25 | A | 4-2 | |
| 11/01/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 01/05/24 | H | 4-2 | |
| 28/04/24 | A | 3-0 | |
| 20/01/24 | A | 2-3 | |
| 15/09/23 | H | 1-1 | |
| 25/02/23 | H | 0-1 | |
| 16/10/22 | A | 2-2 |
Juvenes / Dogana| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 22/10/25 | H | 3-0 | |
| 17/10/25 | A | 3-1 | |
| 04/10/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 27/09/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 24/09/25 | A | 2-2 | |
| 21/09/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 13/09/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 29/08/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 30/04/25 | A | 1-1 |
Tre Penne| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 21/10/25 | A | 2-2 | |
| 17/10/25 | A | 3-0 | |
| 05/10/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 28/09/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 23/09/25 | H | 3-0 | |
| 20/09/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 13/09/25 | A | 0-6 | |
| 29/08/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 06/05/25 | A | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Virtus | 35 | 82 | 71% | 2.3 | 83 | 24 | +59 | 3.1 | 89% | 60% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Tre Penne | 35 | 76 | 63% | 2.2 | 75 | 21 | +54 | 2.7 | 83% | 46% | 31% | 10.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | 34.0 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 60% |
| 3 | Tre Fiori | 30 | 73 | 73% | 2.4 | 63 | 13 | +50 | 2.5 | 73% | 50% | 33% | 6.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | 30.0 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 64% |
| 4 | La Fiorita | 35 | 69 | 54% | 2.0 | 70 | 31 | +39 | 2.9 | 86% | 57% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | - |
| 5 | Folgore | 32 | 60 | 53% | 1.9 | 69 | 36 | +33 | 3.3 | 88% | 66% | 38% | 5.0 | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | - |
| 6 | Domagnano | 35 | 55 | 46% | 1.6 | 66 | 44 | +22 | 3.1 | 80% | 63% | 34% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.3 | - |
| 7 | Fiorentino | 32 | 49 | 47% | 1.5 | 40 | 45 | -5 | 2.7 | 72% | 50% | 25% | 10.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | 34.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 40% |
| 8 | Cosmos | 33 | 47 | 36% | 1.4 | 33 | 23 | +10 | 1.7 | 48% | 30% | 9% | 6.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | 30.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 36% |
| 9 | Juvenes / Dogana | 33 | 39 | 27% | 1.2 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 2.4 | 70% | 36% | 24% | 4.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | 32.0 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 47% |
| 10 | Libertas | 31 | 36 | 29% | 1.2 | 33 | 64 | -31 | 3.1 | 77% | 52% | 39% | 12.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 49% |
| 11 | Pennarossa | 31 | 32 | 26% | 1.0 | 29 | 56 | -27 | 2.7 | 84% | 58% | 26% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.8 | - |
| 12 | San Giovanni | 30 | 31 | 23% | 1.0 | 24 | 43 | -19 | 2.2 | 77% | 37% | 17% | 4.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | 32.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 53% |
| 13 | Faetano | 30 | 22 | 20% | 0.7 | 22 | 55 | -33 | 2.6 | 77% | 47% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | San Marino Academy | 30 | 16 | 10% | 0.5 | 23 | 60 | -37 | 2.8 | 83% | 47% | 27% | 12.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 51% |
| 15 | Cailungo | 30 | 11 | 7% | 0.4 | 23 | 71 | -48 | 3.1 | 87% | 60% | 30% | 5.0 | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.4 | - |
| 16 | Murata | 30 | 7 | 3% | 0.2 | 20 | 83 | -63 | 3.4 | 97% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 2.8 | - |