Juvenes / Dogana vs Tre Penne Result & Analysis

The contest between Juvenes / Dogana and Tre Penne is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win at 35%. The expected total of 2.5 goals suggests a modestly open game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.1% chance. Juvenes / Dogana, playing at home against a stronger opponent, average 1.0 goal scored and 1.43 conceded, while Tre Penne, on the road to a weaker side, average 2.12 scored and 0.62 conceded. The probabilities of each outcome are 35% for a home win, 30% for a draw and 35% for an away win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.2%), Under 5.5 (95.8%), Under 4.5 (89.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (86.9%) and Home under 2.5 goals (86.9%). All picks are presented with their exact probabilities, and the match remains uncertain despite the slight edge for the home side.

The match saw Juvenes / Dogana extend their recent run, while Tre Penne returned to form after a win. The final score was 1-0, a home win that matched the model’s pick and its 35% probability. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.6%, Under 6.5 at 98.6%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.2%, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.2%, Under 5.5 at 95.8%, Under 4.5 at 89.2%, Away under 2.5 goals at 86.9%, and Home under 2.5 goals at 86.9%. All eight picks were settled, each achieving the predicted outcome.