PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

KA Akureyri vs FH hafnarfjordur Result & Analysis

Date: 09/08/2026
Time: 18:15
Final 0-1
KA Akureyri
KA Akureyri
Vs
45%
25%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FH hafnarfjordur
FH hafnarfjordur
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

This match is expected to be a closely contested one, with KA Akureyri coming off a defeat against Keflavik. The model predicts a home win, which is the most likely result with a 45% probability, followed by a draw at 25%, and an away win at 30%. The expected total number of goals is 3.1, suggesting a high-scoring match. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.6%.

KA Akureyri has a strong home record, scoring an average of 2.11 goals and conceding 1.67, particularly against similar opponents. FH hafnarfjordur, on the other hand, struggles to score away, averaging 1.67 goals, but concedes 2.0 goals, especially against stronger opponents.

The model's selection is the home win, with the model also suggesting to take Over 1.5 goals at 83% probability. This pick has a 45% chance of winning, while a draw is 25% likely, and an away win is 30% likely. The home win percentage is 45%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 30%.

Results analysis

In a stunning upset, FH hafnarfjordur secured a 0-1 away win, extending their unbeaten run to 5 matches. The model's selection, a home win, was wrong, with a pre-match probability of 45%. The model's call was incorrect, as the pre-match favourite, KA Akureyri, failed to come through. The model's selection, a home win, was not the only surprise, as the suggested pick, Over 1.5, also missed, with a probability of 83%. The other suggested picks, however, did not come to fruition, with the model's selection being the only one that missed.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

KA Akureyri win✗ Miss
45.0%
Avg Implied 43.7% · @ 2.08
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.18
Dafabet
2.15
Superbet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.11
888Sport
2.10
Draw✗ Miss
25.4%
Avg Implied 24.3% · @ 3.74
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.04
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Marathonbet
3.88
1xBet
3.88
FH hafnarfjordur win✓ Hit
29.5%
Avg Implied 32.1% · @ 2.83
Edge
-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.04
1xBet
2.96
Marathonbet
2.95
Dafabet
2.90
Superbet
2.90

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KA AkureyriKA Akureyri

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-534L20W01L00D50W12L32W22D00D03LA·IR 07/02H·VIK15/02A·NJA21/02H·GRI07/03A·HÖT04/04H·ÆGI14/05H·IA 12/07A·IBV19/07H·THO27/07A·KEF05/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.801.701.811.251.792.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.791.621.931.291.602.10
vs Weaker (6)1.832.001.001.002.252.50
Clean sheet %23% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (FH hafnarfjordur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FH hafnarfjordurFH hafnarfjordur

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-770W00D01L12L42W05L20W00D00D11DA·THR06/02H·IBV12/02A·BRE19/02A·LEI03/03A·THO04/04A·FYL14/05H·VAL12/07H·BRE20/07A·FRA26/07H·KR 05/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.501.670.931.802.07
vs Stronger (12)1.501.501.330.671.672.33
vs Similar (17)1.941.471.891.112.001.88
vs Weaker (1)1.002.00--1.002.00
Clean sheet %33% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (KA Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%012%122%222%317%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
83.0%
@ 1.08-2.1%
Under 1.5
17.0%
@ 6.19+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.11
Pinnacle
1.11
Bet365
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Under
Betfair
8.00
Pinnacle
6.85
Bet365
6.50
888Sport
6.50
Superbet
6.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.5%
@ 1.33-8.3%
Under 2.5
39.5%
@ 2.94+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Under
Betfair
3.30
10Bet
3.10
Pinnacle
3.10
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.2%
@ 1.86-11.5%
Under 3.5
61.8%
@ 1.84+11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.96
Pinnacle
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Betfair
1.90
SBO
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.9%
@ 1.32-6.7%
No
37.1%
@ 3.02+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.33
888Sport
1.33
No
Betfair
3.30
William Hil
3.10
888Sport
3.10
1xBet
3.10
Betano
3.05

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%@ 8.18+6.1%
2-1
9.2%@ 8.79+4.1%
1-2
7.3%@ 10.35+2.9%
2-0
6.7%@ 14.47+3.5%
1-0
6.6%@ 14.30+3.4%
2-2
6.4%@ 9.60+1.7%
0-0
5.4%@ 21.22+3.3%
3-1
5.4%@ 12.85+1.8%
KA Akureyri goals ↓
FH hafnarfjordur goals →
01234
05.4%5.0%4.2%1.9%0.7%
16.6%12%7.3%3.4%1.2%
26.7%9.2%6.4%2.9%1.0%
33.9%5.4%3.7%1.7%0.6%
41.7%2.3%1.6%0.7%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = KA Akureyri goals (down), columns = FH hafnarfjordur goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
KR Reykjavik
2.14
Fram Reykjavik
2.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.71
Stjarnan
1.71
FH hafnarfjordur
1.62
IA Akranes
1.50
Keflavik
1.44
Thor Akureyri
1.25
Breidablik
1.00
KA Akureyri
0.88
Valur Reykjavik
0.71
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.25
KA Akureyri is 0.75 points worse than FH hafnarfjordur in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 1.62).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
3.57
Fram Reykjavik
2.56
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.43
IA Akranes
2.38
Valur Reykjavik
1.86
KA Akureyri
1.75
Stjarnan
1.71
Keflavik
1.67
Breidablik
1.25
FH hafnarfjordur
1.12
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.00
Thor Akureyri
0.88
KA Akureyri is 0.62 goals better than FH hafnarfjordur in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 1.12).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FH hafnarfjordur
0.88
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.43
Keflavik
1.44
KR Reykjavik
1.71
Breidablik
1.75
Fram Reykjavik
1.78
Thor Akureyri
1.88
IA Akranes
1.88
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.12
KA Akureyri
2.38
Valur Reykjavik
2.43
Stjarnan
2.43
KA Akureyri is 1.50 goals worse than FH hafnarfjordur in terms of goals conceded per game (2.38 vs 0.88).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KA AkureyriKA Akureyri

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W10W00D00D20W12L01L10W00D03LA·IR 07/02H·VIK15/02A·NJA21/02H·GRI07/03A·HÖT04/04H·ÆGI14/05H·IA 12/07A·IBV19/07H·THO27/07A·KEF05/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.700.690.620.790.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.670.670.710.570.600.80
vs Weaker (6)1.000.830.501.001.250.75
Clean sheet %53% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (FH hafnarfjordur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FH hafnarfjordurFH hafnarfjordur

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W00D00D11D21W03L00D00D00D01LA·THR06/02H·IBV12/02A·BRE19/02A·LEI03/03A·THO04/04A·FYL14/05H·VAL12/07H·BRE20/07A·FRA26/07H·KR 05/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.700.470.470.870.93
vs Stronger (12)0.420.750.330.330.501.17
vs Similar (17)0.820.650.560.561.120.75
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (KA Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
KA Akureyri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KA AkureyriKA Akureyri

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L10W01L00D30W00D31W12L00D00DA·IR 07/02H·VIK15/02A·NJA21/02H·GRI07/03A·HÖT04/04H·ÆGI14/05H·IA 12/07A·IBV19/07H·THO27/07A·KEF05/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.001.120.621.001.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.120.961.210.711.001.30
vs Weaker (6)0.831.170.500.001.001.75
Clean sheet %50% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FH hafnarfjordur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FH hafnarfjordurFH hafnarfjordur

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W00D01L01L21W02L20W00D00D10WA·THR06/02H·IBV12/02A·BRE19/02A·LEI03/03A·THO04/04A·FYL14/05H·VAL12/07H·BRE20/07A·FRA26/07H·KR 05/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.801.200.470.931.13
vs Stronger (12)1.080.751.000.331.171.17
vs Similar (17)1.120.821.330.560.881.12
vs Weaker (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %47% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (KA Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
KA Akureyri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.0%1.08
Betano
1.11
Pinnacle
1.11
Bet365
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Superbet
1.09
-2.1%✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
TA (21)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
KA Akureyri and FH hafnarfjordur have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
TA (7)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
KA Akureyri and FH hafnarfjordur have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
TA (4)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
KA Akureyri and FH hafnarfjordur have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
KEF (7)
€1m
TA (10)
€1m
KA Akureyri and FH hafnarfjordur have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
KA wins
1
Draws
2
FH wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

KA Akureyri vs FH hafnarfjordur · H/A from KA
DateH/AGameScore
13/07/25AFH hafnarfjordur Vs KA5-0
27/04/25HKA Vs FH hafnarfjordur3-2
08/07/24AFH hafnarfjordur Vs KA1-1
13/04/24HKA Vs FH hafnarfjordur2-3
30/08/23AFH hafnarfjordur Vs KA0-3
03/05/23HKA Vs FH hafnarfjordur4-2
07/08/22AFH hafnarfjordur Vs KA0-3
11/05/22HKA Vs FH hafnarfjordur1-0

KA AkureyriKA Akureyri

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/08/26AKeflavik Vs KA3-0
27/07/26HKA Vs Thor Akureyri0-0
19/07/26AIBV Vestmannaeyjar Vs KA2-2
12/07/26HKA Vs IA Akranes3-2
14/05/26HKA Vs Ægir1-2
04/04/26AHöttur / Huginn Vs KA0-5
07/03/26HKA Vs Grindavik0-0
21/02/26ANjardvik Vs KA1-0
15/02/26HKA Vs Vikingur Reykjavik2-0
07/02/26AIR Reykjavik Vs KA4-3

FH hafnarfjordurFH hafnarfjordur

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/08/26HFH Vs KR Reykjavik1-1
26/07/26AFram Reykjavik Vs FH0-0
20/07/26HFH Vs Breidablik0-0
12/07/26HFH Vs Valur Reykjavik2-0
14/05/26AFylkir Vs FH5-0
04/04/26AThor Akureyri Vs FH2-4
03/03/26ALeiknir R. Vs FH2-1
19/02/26ABreidablik Vs FH1-0
12/02/26HFH Vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar0-0
06/02/26AThrottur Reykjavik Vs FH0-7

📊 16. Overall Statistics

KA Akureyri
KA Akureyri
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDDL1.34
HomeWDLWD1.54
AwayLLWDL1.09
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%43%27%
AVG goals3.423.323.55
Over 1.5 %82%82%82%
Over 2.5 %60%54%68%
Over 3.5 %48%46%50%
Scored1.621.681.55
Conceded1.801.642.00
BTTS56%54%59%
Clean Sheet22%29%14%
Corners9.0010.008.00
Cards3.504.003.00
FH hafnarfjordur
FH hafnarfjordur
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDDD1.10
HomeLDWDD1.32
AwayLLWLD0.93
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%27%25%
AVG goals3.382.823.82
Over 1.5 %80%77%82%
Over 2.5 %60%41%75%
Over 3.5 %44%32%54%
Scored1.641.551.71
Conceded1.741.272.11
BTTS56%50%61%
Clean Sheet24%36%14%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Fram ReykjavikFram Reykjavik918
56%
2.0
2316+7
4.3
89%
78%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.61.8
-
2KR ReykjavikKR Reykjavik715
57%
2.1
2512+13
5.3
100%
71%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1113.61.7
-
3KeflavikKeflavik913
44%
1.4
1513+2
3.1
78%
56%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.71.4
-
4FH hafnarfjordurFH hafnarfjordur813
38%
1.6
97+2
2.0
62%
25%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.10.9
-
5Vikingur ReykjavikVikingur Reykjavik712
43%
1.7
1710+7
3.9
100%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3122.41.4
-
6IA AkranesIA Akranes812
38%
1.5
1915+4
4.2
100%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.41.9
-
7StjarnanStjarnan712
57%
1.7
1217-5
4.1
86%
71%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.72.4
-
8Thor AkureyriThor Akureyri810
38%
1.2
715-8
2.8
62%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.91.9
-
9BreidablikBreidablik88
25%
1.0
1014-4
3.0
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.8
-
10KA AkureyriKA Akureyri87
12%
0.9
1419-5
4.1
75%
75%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.82.4
-
11Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik75
14%
0.7
1317-4
4.3
100%
71%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.92.4
-
12IBV VestmannaeyjarIBV Vestmannaeyjar82
0%
0.2
817-9
3.1
62%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.02.1
-
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →

← all matches