This match is expected to be a closely contested one, with KA Akureyri coming off a defeat against Keflavik. The model predicts a home win, which is the most likely result with a 45% probability, followed by a draw at 25%, and an away win at 30%. The expected total number of goals is 3.1, suggesting a high-scoring match. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.6%.
KA Akureyri has a strong home record, scoring an average of 2.11 goals and conceding 1.67, particularly against similar opponents. FH hafnarfjordur, on the other hand, struggles to score away, averaging 1.67 goals, but concedes 2.0 goals, especially against stronger opponents.
The model's selection is the home win, with the model also suggesting to take Over 1.5 goals at 83% probability. This pick has a 45% chance of winning, while a draw is 25% likely, and an away win is 30% likely. The home win percentage is 45%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 30%.
In a stunning upset, FH hafnarfjordur secured a 0-1 away win, extending their unbeaten run to 5 matches. The model's selection, a home win, was wrong, with a pre-match probability of 45%. The model's call was incorrect, as the pre-match favourite, KA Akureyri, failed to come through. The model's selection, a home win, was not the only surprise, as the suggested pick, Over 1.5, also missed, with a probability of 83%. The other suggested picks, however, did not come to fruition, with the model's selection being the only one that missed.
KA Akureyri| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.80 | 1.70 | 1.81 | 1.25 | 1.79 | 2.21 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.79 | 1.62 | 1.93 | 1.29 | 1.60 | 2.10 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.83 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.25 | 2.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+3pp vs league) | |||||
FH hafnarfjordur| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.73 | 1.50 | 1.67 | 0.93 | 1.80 | 2.07 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.33 | 0.67 | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.94 | 1.47 | 1.89 | 1.11 | 2.00 | 1.88 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
| FH hafnarfjordur goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 6.6% | 12% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 6.7% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 3.9% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
KA Akureyri| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.70 | 0.69 | 0.62 | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.71 | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.00 | 0.83 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+33pp vs league) | |||||
FH hafnarfjordur| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.70 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.87 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.42 | 0.75 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 1.17 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.82 | 0.65 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 1.12 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+30pp vs league) | |||||
KA Akureyri| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 1.00 | 1.12 | 0.62 | 1.00 | 1.43 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.12 | 0.96 | 1.21 | 0.71 | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 0.83 | 1.17 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+30pp vs league) | |||||
FH hafnarfjordur| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 0.80 | 1.20 | 0.47 | 0.93 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 1.08 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.12 | 0.82 | 1.33 | 0.56 | 0.88 | 1.12 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 83.0% | 1.08 | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.09 | -2.1% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/25 | A | 5-0 | |
| 27/04/25 | H | 3-2 | |
| 08/07/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 13/04/24 | H | 2-3 | |
| 30/08/23 | A | 0-3 | |
| 03/05/23 | H | 4-2 | |
| 07/08/22 | A | 0-3 | |
| 11/05/22 | H | 1-0 |
KA Akureyri| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 27/07/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 19/07/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 12/07/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 14/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 15/02/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 07/02/26 | A | 4-3 |
FH hafnarfjordur| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 26/07/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 20/07/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 12/07/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 14/05/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 03/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 19/02/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 12/02/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 06/02/26 | A | 0-7 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Fram Reykjavik | 9 | 18 | 56% | 2.0 | 23 | 16 | +7 | 4.3 | 89% | 78% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 2 | KR Reykjavik | 7 | 15 | 57% | 2.1 | 25 | 12 | +13 | 5.3 | 100% | 71% | 71% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 3 | Keflavik | 9 | 13 | 44% | 1.4 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 3.1 | 78% | 56% | 22% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | - |
| 4 | FH hafnarfjordur | 8 | 13 | 38% | 1.6 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 2.0 | 62% | 25% | 12% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | - |
| 5 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 7 | 12 | 43% | 1.7 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 3.9 | 100% | 71% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 6 | IA Akranes | 8 | 12 | 38% | 1.5 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 4.2 | 100% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.4 | 1.9 | - |
| 7 | Stjarnan | 7 | 12 | 57% | 1.7 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 4.1 | 86% | 71% | 71% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.7 | 2.4 | - |
| 8 | Thor Akureyri | 8 | 10 | 38% | 1.2 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 2.8 | 62% | 38% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.9 | 1.9 | - |
| 9 | Breidablik | 8 | 8 | 25% | 1.0 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 3.0 | 62% | 50% | 38% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 10 | KA Akureyri | 8 | 7 | 12% | 0.9 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 4.1 | 75% | 75% | 62% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.8 | 2.4 | - |
| 11 | Valur Reykjavik | 7 | 5 | 14% | 0.7 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 4.3 | 100% | 71% | 71% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.9 | 2.4 | - |
| 12 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 8 | 2 | 0% | 0.2 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 3.1 | 62% | 62% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.1 | - |