This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valur Reykjavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.8
Avg scored
3.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.63
1.57
2.88
1.12
2.36
2.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
2.31
1.88
2.38
1.38
2.25
2.38
vs Weaker (14)
3.00
1.21
3.38
0.88
2.50
1.67
Clean sheet %
17% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (KA Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (30%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
94.6%
Under 1.5
5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
83.1%
Under 2.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
66.5%
Under 3.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
80.3%
No
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-2
6.9%
2-1
6.9%
1-1
6.0%
3-2 ✓
5.8%
3-1
5.8%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
4.7%
3-3
3.9%
KA Akureyri goals ↓
Valur Reykjavik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.6%
1.6%
2.2%
1.5%
0.7%
1
2.1%
6.0%
5.5%
3.7%
1.9%
2
3.4%
6.9%
6.9%
4.7%
2.3%
3
2.9%
5.8%
5.8%
3.9%
2.0%
4
1.8%
3.6%
3.7%
2.5%
1.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = KA Akureyri goals (down), columns = Valur Reykjavik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KA Akureyri
2.60
Keflavik
2.50
Stjarnan
2.50
Thor Akureyri
2.25
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.00
Fram Reykjavik
2.00
IR Reykjavik
2.00
Afturelding
2.00
Grindavik
2.00
Fylkir
2.00
Fjolnir
2.00
KÁ Hafnarfjördur
2.00
Haukar
2.00
Höttur / Huginn
2.00
Augnablik
2.00
Vídir
2.00
Hafnir
2.00
Ýmir
2.00
Valur Reykjavik
1.75
ÍH
1.75
Vestri
1.50
KR Reykjavik
1.50
IA Akranes
1.50
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.50
Ægir
1.50
Grotta
1.50
Throttur Reykjavik
1.50
HK Kopavogur
1.50
Selfoss
1.50
Dalvík / Reynir
1.50
KV
1.50
Vikingur Olafsiik
1.50
Kári
1.50
Hvíti riddarinn
1.50
RB
1.50
KFG
1.50
Vængir Júpiters
1.50
KH
1.50
Úlfarnir
1.50
Árborg
1.50
Kormákur / Hvöt
1.50
KFK Kópavogur
1.50
Árbær
1.33
Tindastóll
1.33
Magni
1.00
Smári
1.00
Breidablik
0.00
FH hafnarfjordur
0.00
Leiknir R.
0.00
Njardvik
0.00
Völsungur
0.00
Thróttur Vogar
0.00
KFS
0.00
Skallagrímur
0.00
KF
0.00
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
0.00
Hörður Í.
0.00
Reynir
0.00
ÍBU
0.00
Thorlákur
0.00
Hamar
0.00
Álftanes
0.00
Álafoss
0.00
Ellidi
0.00
KFR
0.00
Spyrnir
0.00
Kría
0.00
Sindri
0.00
SR
0.00
Afríka
0.00
Reynir Hellissandur
0.00
Léttir
0.00
Mídas
0.00
KM
0.00
Samherjar
0.00
KA Akureyri is 0.85 points better than Valur Reykjavik in terms of average points per game (2.60 vs 1.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Haukar
8.33
Ýmir
7.50
Árborg
6.50
KR Reykjavik
6.00
Hafnir
5.67
Augnablik
4.33
IR Reykjavik
4.00
Throttur Reykjavik
4.00
KFR
4.00
KFK Kópavogur
4.00
ÍH
3.75
KÁ Hafnarfjördur
3.67
KFG
3.50
Vængir Júpiters
3.50
KH
3.50
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
3.00
Afturelding
3.00
Kári
3.00
RB
3.00
Kormákur / Hvöt
3.00
Fjolnir
2.67
Tindastóll
2.67
Valur Reykjavik
2.50
Vestri
2.50
Thor Akureyri
2.50
Keflavik
2.50
Ægir
2.50
Selfoss
2.50
Vikingur Olafsiik
2.50
Hvíti riddarinn
2.50
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.40
KA Akureyri
2.40
Höttur / Huginn
2.33
Stjarnan
2.25
IA Akranes
2.00
Fram Reykjavik
2.00
Grindavik
2.00
Njardvik
2.00
KV
2.00
Vídir
2.00
Hörður Í.
2.00
Hamar
2.00
Smári
2.00
SR
2.00
Léttir
2.00
Fylkir
1.67
Grotta
1.50
HK Kopavogur
1.50
Dalvík / Reynir
1.50
Árbær
1.33
Breidablik
1.00
Leiknir R.
1.00
Thróttur Vogar
1.00
Skallagrímur
1.00
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
1.00
Úlfarnir
1.00
Reynir
1.00
Álftanes
1.00
Magni
1.00
Kría
1.00
Sindri
1.00
Mídas
1.00
FH hafnarfjordur
0.00
Völsungur
0.00
KFS
0.00
KF
0.00
ÍBU
0.00
Thorlákur
0.00
Álafoss
0.00
Ellidi
0.00
Spyrnir
0.00
Afríka
0.00
Reynir Hellissandur
0.00
KM
0.00
Samherjar
0.00
KA Akureyri is 0.10 goals worse than Valur Reykjavik in terms of goals scored per game (2.40 vs 2.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Höttur / Huginn
0.33
Thor Akureyri
0.50
KA Akureyri
0.80
Fram Reykjavik
1.00
IR Reykjavik
1.00
Árborg
1.00
Magni
1.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.20
Stjarnan
1.25
Fylkir
1.33
Tindastóll
1.33
Hafnir
1.33
Valur Reykjavik
1.50
Keflavik
1.50
IA Akranes
1.50
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.50
Throttur Reykjavik
1.50
Vikingur Olafsiik
1.50
Kári
1.50
Afturelding
1.67
Grindavik
1.67
Augnablik
1.67
Vídir
1.67
Breidablik
2.00
Ægir
2.00
Völsungur
2.00
HK Kopavogur
2.00
Fjolnir
2.00
Dalvík / Reynir
2.00
KF
2.00
Haukar
2.00
Árbær
2.00
Úlfarnir
2.00
Kría
2.00
Sindri
2.00
Smári
2.00
Ýmir
2.00
Vestri
2.50
Grotta
2.50
Selfoss
2.50
Hvíti riddarinn
2.50
KFG
2.50
KH
2.50
ÍH
2.75
FH hafnarfjordur
3.00
Njardvik
3.00
Thróttur Vogar
3.00
KFS
3.00
Skallagrímur
3.00
Ellidi
3.00
Mídas
3.00
KR Reykjavik
3.50
KV
3.50
RB
3.50
Kormákur / Hvöt
3.50
KFK Kópavogur
3.50
Leiknir R.
4.00
SR
4.00
KÁ Hafnarfjördur
4.33
Vængir Júpiters
4.50
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
5.00
Reynir
5.00
ÍBU
5.00
Hamar
5.00
Spyrnir
5.00
Hörður Í.
6.00
Álafoss
6.00
Álftanes
7.00
Léttir
7.00
Samherjar
7.00
KFR
8.00
Thorlákur
11.00
Reynir Hellissandur
12.00
KM
12.00
Afríka
20.00
KA Akureyri is 0.70 goals better than Valur Reykjavik in terms of goals conceded per game (0.80 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
KA Akureyri or Draw✓ Hit
69.1%
Avg Implied -
49%
20%
31%
covers KA Akureyri + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri or Valur Reykjavik✓ Hit
80.1%
Avg Implied -
49%
20%
31%
covers KA Akureyri + Valur Reykjavik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Valur Reykjavik✗ Miss
50.8%
Avg Implied -
49%
20%
31%
covers Draw + Valur Reykjavik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
KA Akureyri over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
92.0%
Under
8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
71.8%
Under
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
46.3%
Under
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
24.8%
Under
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.7%
Under
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
59.9%
Under
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
32.8%
Under
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
14.6%
Under
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to KA Akureyri, so a minus line means KA Akureyri give that many goals of a start and Valur Reykjavik receive them. At -1, KA Akureyri must win by two or more to land; a one-goal KA Akureyri win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (KA Akureyri)Actual: Valur Reykjavik
KA Akureyri -2
16.8%
Draw -2
14.4%
Valur Reykjavik +2
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (KA Akureyri)Actual: Draw
KA Akureyri -1
31.2%
Draw -1
18.0%
Valur Reykjavik +1
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (KA Akureyri)Actual: KA Akureyri
KA Akureyri +1
69.1%
Draw +1
14.3%
Valur Reykjavik -1
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (KA Akureyri)Actual: KA Akureyri
KA Akureyri +2
83.4%
Draw +2
9.2%
Valur Reykjavik -2
7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
KA Akureyri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.00
1.00
1.11
0.58
0.83
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.79
1.26
1.00
1.36
0.50
1.12
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.40
1.17
0.50
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
33% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valur Reykjavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.73
1.06
0.50
1.21
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.19
0.88
0.88
0.62
1.50
1.12
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.57
1.25
0.38
0.83
0.83
Clean sheet %
40% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (KA Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
KA Akureyri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
KA Akureyri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.70
1.06
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.95
0.63
1.18
0.27
0.62
1.12
vs Weaker (10)
1.20
0.60
0.83
0.50
1.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
50% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valur Reykjavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.83
1.81
0.62
1.14
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.12
1.00
1.50
0.75
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (14)
1.93
0.64
2.12
0.50
1.67
0.83
Clean sheet %
37% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (KA Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
KA Akureyri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
TA (21)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
VES (19)
€1m
AFT (17)
€1m
TR (19)
€1m
NJA (21)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
LR (18)
€1m
GRO (17)
€1m
IR (17)
€1m
VÖL (19)
€1m
ÆGI (14)
€0m
KA Akureyri's squad is €1m less valuable than Valur Reykjavik's (€2m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
TA (7)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
AFT (5)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
VES (7)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
TR (5)
€0m
NJA (7)
€0m
GRO (5)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
IR (6)
€0m
ÆGI (3)
€0m
LR (4)
€0m
VÖL (4)
€0m
KA Akureyri and Valur Reykjavik have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
TR (6)
€0m
TA (4)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
AFT (5)
€0m
NJA (5)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
VÖL (6)
€0m
ÆGI (5)
€0m
LR (5)
€0m
IR (4)
€0m
GRO (3)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
KA Akureyri and Valur Reykjavik have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
KEF (7)
€1m
TA (10)
€1m
NJA (9)
€0m
LR (9)
€0m
AFT (7)
€0m
FYL (6)
€0m
TR (8)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
GRO (9)
€0m
IR (7)
€0m
VÖL (9)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
ÆGI (6)
€0m
KA Akureyri and Valur Reykjavik have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →
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Breidablik
Vikingur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
IA Akranes
KR Reykjavik
FH hafnarfjordur
Fram Reykjavik
Vestri
HK Kopavogur
Fylkir