Kalamata vs Larisa Result & Analysis

The contest between Kalamata and Larisa is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win as the most likely outcome. Home win probability sits at 38%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 33%. The expected total of goals is 2.5, with the single most probable scoreline being 1-1 at 14.2%. Kalamata, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.12 goals scored and 0.5 conceded, while Larisa, on the road, averages 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals (99.6%), Under 6.5 goals (98.7%), Under 11.5 corners (98.0%), Over 19.5 fouls (97.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.8%), Under 5.5 goals (96.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.9%) and Under 10.5 corners (95.8%). Recent form shows Kalamata struggling after two straight defeats, whereas Larisa is riding a two-game winning streak. The match remains finely balanced, with no clear favourite beyond the model’s pick of a home victory.

The pre-match favourite, Kalamata, failed to deliver, as Larisa clinched a 1-2 victory. The model had tipped a home win with a 38% probability, but the result proved wrong. The match ended in an away win, a surprise that disrupted Kalamata’s recent run of two straight defeats. The model’s other selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.6%, Under 6.5 at 98.7%, Under 11.5 corners at 98.0%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.8%, Under 5.5 at 96.1%, Home under 3.5 goals at 95.9%, and Under 10.5 corners at 95.8%. Each probability was expressed as a percentage and the outcomes were noted exactly as recorded.