PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Kapaz vs Araz Result & Analysis

Date: 12/09/2025
Time: 13:45
Final 0-2
Kapaz
Kapaz
Vs
28%
32%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Araz
Araz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kapaz win✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Araz win✓ Hit
40.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KapazKapaz

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D12L01L22D10W03L04L03L23L05LH·ARA13/04A·ŞAM20/04H·ZIR26/04A·NEF04/05H·SUM11/05A·QAR18/05A·TUR25/05A·SUM17/08H·KAR23/08A·ZIR30/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.601.001.200.532.00
vs Stronger (19)0.791.791.001.440.602.10
vs Similar (11)0.731.271.000.830.401.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArazAraz

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L10W01L21W22D04L05L11D21W21WA·QAR11/05A·ŞAM17/05H·ZIR25/05H·ARI24/07A·ARI31/07H·OMO07/08A·OMO14/08A·ZIR19/08A·TUR24/08H·QAB30/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.201.001.000.751.38
vs Stronger (5)0.402.001.001.500.002.33
vs Similar (21)1.101.191.201.101.001.27
vs Weaker (4)0.250.250.000.000.500.50
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%022%128%219%311%45%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.3%
Under 1.5
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
37.1%
Under 2.5
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.6%
Under 3.5
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.8%
No
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
12.7%
0-1
12.4%
1-0
9.6%
0-2 ✓
8.4%
1-2
8.0%
2-1
6.4%
2-0
5.3%
Kapaz goals ↓
Araz goals →
01234
013%12%8.4%3.4%1.0%
19.6%15%8.0%3.3%1.0%
25.3%6.4%3.9%1.6%0.5%
31.7%2.0%1.2%0.5%0.2%
40.4%0.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kapaz goals (down), columns = Araz goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Karvan
0.45
Mingəçevir
0.00
Kapaz is 0.58 points worse than Araz in terms of average points per game (0.82 vs 1.39).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Karvan
0.70
Mingəçevir
0.00
Kapaz is 0.58 goals worse than Araz in terms of goals scored per game (0.76 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Turan
0.82
Qarabag
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Mingəçevir
2.00
Karvan
2.00
Kapaz is 0.09 goals worse than Araz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.85 vs 1.76).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KapazKapaz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D11D00D01L10W01L04L03L01L03LH·ARA13/04A·ŞAM20/04H·ZIR26/04A·NEF04/05H·SUM11/05A·QAR18/05A·TUR25/05A·SUM17/08H·KAR23/08A·ZIR30/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.270.930.330.600.201.27
vs Stronger (19)0.261.110.330.890.201.30
vs Similar (11)0.270.640.330.170.201.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArazAraz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L10W00D00D20W02L04L01L10W21WA·QAR11/05A·ŞAM17/05H·ZIR25/05H·ARI24/07A·ARI31/07H·OMO07/08A·OMO14/08A·ZIR19/08A·TUR24/08H·QAB30/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.530.570.430.560.62
vs Stronger (5)0.400.601.000.500.000.67
vs Similar (21)0.670.620.600.500.730.73
vs Weaker (4)0.250.000.000.000.500.00
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kapaz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KapazKapaz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L01L21W00D02L00D00D22D02LH·ARA13/04A·ŞAM20/04H·ZIR26/04A·NEF04/05H·SUM11/05A·QAR18/05A·TUR25/05A·SUM17/08H·KAR23/08A·ZIR30/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.670.670.600.330.73
vs Stronger (19)0.530.680.670.560.400.80
vs Similar (11)0.450.640.670.670.200.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArazAraz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D01L21W02L02L01L10W11D00DA·QAR11/05A·ŞAM17/05H·ZIR25/05H·ARI24/07A·ARI31/07H·OMO07/08A·OMO14/08A·ZIR19/08A·TUR24/08H·QAB30/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.670.430.570.190.75
vs Stronger (5)0.001.400.001.000.001.67
vs Similar (21)0.430.570.600.600.270.55
vs Weaker (4)0.000.250.000.000.000.50
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kapaz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.582.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
Kapaz and Araz have a similar squad value (both €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
Kapaz's attack is €2m less valuable than Araz's (€1m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
Kapaz and Araz have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
Kapaz and Araz have a similar defence value (both €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
KAP wins
2
Draws
3
ARA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kapaz vs Araz · H/A from KAP
DateH/AGameScore
13/04/25HKAP Vs Araz0-0
10/02/25AAraz Vs KAP0-0
22/11/24HKAP Vs Araz0-2
13/09/24AAraz Vs KAP1-0
05/04/24AAraz Vs KAP1-2
05/02/24HKAP Vs Araz3-1
10/11/23AAraz Vs KAP0-1
03/09/23HKAP Vs Araz1-2

KapazKapaz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/25AZira Vs KAP5-0
23/08/25HKAP Vs Karvan2-3
17/08/25ASumqayıt Vs KAP3-0
25/05/25ATuran Vs KAP4-0
18/05/25AQarabag Vs KAP3-0
11/05/25HKAP Vs Sumqayıt1-0
04/05/25ANeftchi Baku Vs KAP2-2
26/04/25HKAP Vs Zira0-1
20/04/25AŞamaxı FK Vs KAP2-1
13/04/25HKAP Vs Araz0-0

ArazAraz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/25HARA Vs Qabala2-1
24/08/25ATuran Vs ARA1-2
19/08/25AZira Vs ARA1-1
14/08/25AOmonia Nicosia Vs ARA5-0
07/08/25HARA Vs Omonia Nicosia0-4
31/07/25AAris Thessalonikis Vs ARA2-2
24/07/25HARA Vs Aris Thessalonikis2-1
25/05/25HARA Vs Zira0-1
17/05/25AŞamaxı FK Vs ARA0-1
11/05/25AQarabag Vs ARA2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kapaz
Kapaz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.86
HomeDDLWL1.12
AwayDLLLL0.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%29%15%
AVG goals2.722.582.85
Over 1.5 %66%62%69%
Over 2.5 %50%38%62%
Over 3.5 %30%29%31%
Scored0.881.000.77
Conceded1.841.582.08
BTTS32%38%27%
Clean Sheet24%29%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Araz
Araz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDWW1.70
HomeDLWLW1.76
AwayWDLDW1.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%48%44%
AVG goals2.122.202.04
Over 1.5 %62%60%64%
Over 2.5 %32%36%28%
Over 3.5 %20%24%16%
Scored1.121.161.08
Conceded1.001.040.96
BTTS42%52%32%
Clean Sheet40%36%44%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Sabah FASabah FA3378
73%
2.4
7525+50
3.0
76%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5572.30.8
-
2QarabagQarabag3369
64%
2.1
7127+44
3.0
76%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.20.8
-
3Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3359
48%
1.8
5732+25
2.7
73%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.71.0
-
4TuranTuran3359
52%
1.8
4427+17
2.2
67%
45%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.30.8
-
5ZiraZira3353
39%
1.6
4336+7
2.4
70%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.31.1
-
6ArazAraz3346
39%
1.4
4458-14
3.1
88%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.31.8
-
7SumqayıtSumqayıt3238
34%
1.2
4249-7
2.8
78%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4241.31.5
-
8Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3338
27%
1.2
3140-9
2.2
67%
45%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.2
-
9Imisli FKImisli FK3234
22%
1.1
2340-17
2.0
53%
31%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3130.71.2
-
10QabalaQabala3430
24%
0.9
3449-15
2.4
68%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1131.01.4
-
11KapazKapaz3327
24%
0.8
2561-36
2.6
76%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.81.8
-
12KarvanKarvan3315
9%
0.5
2366-43
2.7
82%
48%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.72.0
-
13MingəçevirMingəçevir10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

← all matches