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Kapaz vs Neftchi Baku Result & Analysis

Date: 09/03/2024
Time: 11:00
Final 3-3
Kapaz
Kapaz
Vs
26%
31%
43%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kapaz win✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku win✗ Miss
43.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KapazKapaz

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W11D02L21W12L31W14L23L21W31WA·QAB09/12H·SUM14/12A·NEF24/12H·TUR22/01H·QAR27/01H·ARA05/02H·SƏB12/02A·SAB17/02H·QAB23/02A·SUM01/03
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.700.811.691.071.71
vs Stronger (19)0.891.950.901.600.892.33
vs Similar (11)1.001.270.671.831.400.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-432W02L20W00D31W12L01L10W11D14LH·TUR10/12A·QAR18/12H·KAP24/12A·SAB21/01H·QAB28/01A·SUM04/02A·ARA13/02H·ZIR18/02A·TUR24/02H·QAR03/03
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.101.331.131.001.07
vs Stronger (5)0.602.600.673.000.502.00
vs Similar (15)1.000.731.290.570.750.88
vs Weaker (10)1.700.901.800.801.601.00
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.7%
Under 1.5
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
38.7%
Under 2.5
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
18.8%
Under 3.5
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.6%
No
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-1
12.5%
0-0
12.0%
0-2
8.9%
1-0
8.8%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
6.1%
2-0
4.8%
Kapaz goals ↓
Neftchi Baku goals →
01234
012%13%8.9%3.8%1.2%
18.8%14%8.4%3.6%1.2%
24.8%6.1%4.0%1.7%0.6%
31.5%1.9%1.2%0.5%0.2%
40.4%0.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kapaz goals (down), columns = Neftchi Baku goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.31
Sabah FA
1.61
Zira
1.61
Sumqayıt
1.58
Neftchi Baku
1.56
Turan
1.33
Səbail
1.17
Araz
1.00
Kapaz
0.97
Qabala
0.72
Kapaz is 0.58 points worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.56).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.69
Turan
1.47
Neftchi Baku
1.42
Sabah FA
1.39
Səbail
1.39
Kapaz
1.08
Sumqayıt
1.03
Zira
0.92
Araz
0.86
Qabala
0.83
Kapaz is 0.33 goals worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.42).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zira
0.61
Qarabag
1.03
Sumqayıt
1.06
Neftchi Baku
1.11
Sabah FA
1.11
Araz
1.39
Turan
1.47
Səbail
1.67
Qabala
1.78
Kapaz
1.86
Kapaz is 0.75 goals worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals conceded per game (1.86 vs 1.11).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KapazKapaz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D01L11D00D21W11D11D11D10WA·QAB09/12H·SUM14/12A·NEF24/12H·TUR22/01H·QAR27/01H·ARA05/02H·SƏB12/02A·SAB17/02H·QAB23/02A·SUM01/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.870.500.940.430.79
vs Stronger (19)0.471.050.501.000.441.11
vs Similar (11)0.450.550.500.830.400.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D10W00D00D02L00D10W00D00DH·TUR10/12A·QAR18/12H·KAP24/12A·SAB21/01H·QAB28/01A·SUM04/02A·ARA13/02H·ZIR18/02A·TUR24/02H·QAR03/03
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.400.530.270.330.53
vs Stronger (5)0.200.400.000.670.500.00
vs Similar (15)0.470.330.710.140.250.50
vs Weaker (10)0.500.500.600.200.400.80
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kapaz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KapazKapaz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W00D01L10W12L10W03L12L10W21WA·QAB09/12H·SUM14/12A·NEF24/12H·TUR22/01H·QAR27/01H·ARA05/02H·SƏB12/02A·SAB17/02H·QAB23/02A·SUM01/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.830.310.750.640.93
vs Stronger (19)0.420.890.400.600.441.22
vs Similar (11)0.550.730.171.001.000.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W02L10W00D31W10W01L00D11D14LH·TUR10/12A·QAR18/12H·KAP24/12A·SAB21/01H·QAB28/01A·SUM04/02A·ARA13/02H·ZIR18/02A·TUR24/02H·QAR03/03
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.700.800.870.670.53
vs Stronger (5)0.402.200.672.330.002.00
vs Similar (15)0.530.400.570.430.500.38
vs Weaker (10)1.200.401.200.601.200.20
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kapaz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.581.2%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Kapaz's squad is €8m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€5m vs €13m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Kapaz's attack is €3m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€1m vs €4m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Kapaz's midfield is €1m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€2m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Kapaz's defence is €4m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€3m vs €6m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
1
KAP wins
1
Draws
4
NB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kapaz vs Neftchi Baku · H/A from KAP
DateH/AGameScore
24/12/23ANeftchi Baku Vs KAP2-0
06/08/23HKAP Vs Neftchi Baku1-0
21/05/23HKAP Vs Neftchi Baku1-3
16/03/23ANeftchi Baku Vs KAP2-2
16/10/22HKAP Vs Neftchi Baku0-2
14/08/22ANeftchi Baku Vs KAP5-2

KapazKapaz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/03/24ASumqayıt Vs KAP1-3
23/02/24HKAP Vs Qabala2-1
17/02/24ASabah FA Vs KAP3-2
12/02/24HKAP Vs Səbail1-4
05/02/24HKAP Vs Araz3-1
27/01/24HKAP Vs Qarabag1-2
22/01/24HKAP Vs Turan2-1
24/12/23ANeftchi Baku Vs KAP2-0
14/12/23HKAP Vs Sumqayıt1-1
09/12/23AQabala Vs KAP0-3

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/03/24HNB Vs Qarabag1-4
24/02/24ATuran Vs NB1-1
18/02/24HNB Vs Zira1-0
13/02/24AAraz Vs NB1-0
04/02/24ASumqayıt Vs NB2-1
28/01/24HNB Vs Qabala3-1
21/01/24ASabah FA Vs NB0-0
24/12/23HNB Vs Kapaz2-0
18/12/23AQarabag Vs NB2-0
10/12/23HNB Vs Turan3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kapaz
Kapaz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWW1.04
HomeWLWLW1.19
AwayDWLLW0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%31%17%
AVG goals2.602.422.79
Over 1.5 %74%69%79%
Over 2.5 %48%50%46%
Over 3.5 %30%23%38%
Scored1.041.041.04
Conceded1.561.381.75
BTTS54%50%58%
Clean Sheet18%23%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDL1.52
HomeWWWWL1.72
AwayLDLLD1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%52%32%
AVG goals2.442.762.12
Over 1.5 %72%80%64%
Over 2.5 %38%48%28%
Over 3.5 %26%32%20%
Scored1.321.561.08
Conceded1.121.201.04
BTTS44%44%44%
Clean Sheet38%44%32%
Corners10.2511.509.00
Cards5.005.504.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3683
72%
2.3
9737+60
3.7
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.71.0
-
2ZiraZira3658
44%
1.6
3322+11
1.5
33%
25%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6160.90.6
-
3Sabah FASabah FA3658
47%
1.6
5040+10
2.5
72%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5571.41.1
-
4SumqayıtSumqayıt3657
42%
1.6
3738-1
2.1
56%
33%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4241.01.1
-
5Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3656
44%
1.6
5140+11
2.5
69%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.41.1
-
6TuranTuran3648
36%
1.3
5353+0
2.9
83%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.51.5
-
7SəbailSəbail3642
31%
1.2
5060-10
3.1
81%
64%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.7
-
8ArazAraz3636
25%
1.0
3150-19
2.2
72%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3220.91.4
-
9KapazKapaz3635
25%
1.0
3967-28
2.9
72%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1231.11.9
-
10QabalaQabala3626
19%
0.7
3064-34
2.6
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1130.81.8
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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