This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neftchi Baku
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.37
1.76
0.94
0.85
1.92
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
4.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
4.50
vs Similar (14)
0.93
1.07
1.12
0.75
0.67
1.50
vs Weaker (13)
2.15
1.08
2.62
0.88
1.40
1.40
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.7%
Under 1.5
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.5%
Under 2.5
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.4%
Under 3.5
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.3%
No
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-0
9.8%
0-1
9.4%
1-0
9.1%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
7.8%
0-2 ✓
6.7%
2-0
6.3%
Kapaz goals ↓
Neftchi Baku goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
9.4%
6.7%
2.8%
0.9%
1
9.1%
14%
8.1%
3.4%
1.0%
2
6.3%
7.8%
4.9%
2.0%
0.6%
3
2.5%
3.2%
2.0%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kapaz goals (down), columns = Neftchi Baku goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Araz
2.50
Qarabag
2.17
MOIK
2.00
Neftchi Baku
2.00
Turan
2.00
Sabah FA
1.67
Səbail
1.50
Şamaxı FK
1.50
Imisli FK
1.50
Kapaz
1.50
Qabala
1.50
Mingəçevir
1.50
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.50
Safa Baku
1.00
Zira
1.00
Sumqayıt
0.67
Difai Ağsu
0.50
Baku Sportinq
0.00
Hypers Guba
0.00
Şəmkir
0.00
Ağdaş
0.00
Dinamo Bakı
0.00
Şahdağ
0.00
Cəbrayıl
0.00
Karvan
0.00
Zaqatala
0.00
Şimal
0.00
Kapaz is 0.50 points worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Turan
4.00
Şamaxı FK
3.50
Imisli FK
2.50
Səbail
2.25
Neftchi Baku
2.20
MOIK
2.00
Hypers Guba
2.00
Safa Baku
2.00
Qabala
2.00
Qarabag
1.83
Araz
1.83
Kapaz
1.75
Sabah FA
1.67
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.50
Şəmkir
1.00
Difai Ağsu
1.00
Cəbrayıl
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Zira
1.00
Şimal
1.00
Sumqayıt
0.33
Baku Sportinq
0.00
Ağdaş
0.00
Dinamo Bakı
0.00
Şahdağ
0.00
Karvan
0.00
Zaqatala
0.00
Kapaz is 0.45 goals worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 2.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Neftchi Baku
0.60
Qarabag
0.67
Araz
0.67
Kapaz
0.75
Sabah FA
0.83
MOIK
1.00
Səbail
1.00
Imisli FK
1.00
Qabala
1.00
Zaqatala
1.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Zira
1.33
Turan
1.50
Mingəçevir
1.50
Sumqayıt
1.67
Şamaxı FK
2.00
Safa Baku
2.00
Karvan
3.00
Şimal
3.00
Baku Sportinq
4.00
Difai Ağsu
4.00
Şahdağ
4.00
Cəbrayıl
5.00
Şəmkir
6.00
Ağdaş
6.00
Dinamo Bakı
6.00
Hypers Guba
7.00
Kapaz is 0.15 goals worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals conceded per game (0.75 vs 0.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kapaz or Draw✗ Miss
64.0%
Avg Implied -
34%
30%
36%
covers Kapaz + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kapaz or Neftchi Baku✓ Hit
70.1%
Avg Implied -
34%
30%
36%
covers Kapaz + Neftchi Baku
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Neftchi Baku✓ Hit
65.8%
Avg Implied -
34%
30%
36%
covers Draw + Neftchi Baku
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kapaz over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
70.2%
Under
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.1%
Under
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.3%
Under
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
35.5%
Under
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.1%
Under
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kapaz, so a minus line means Kapaz give that many goals of a start and Neftchi Baku receive them. At -1, Kapaz must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kapaz win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kapaz)Actual: Neftchi Baku
Kapaz -2
5.0%
Draw -2
10.1%
Neftchi Baku +2
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kapaz)Actual: Neftchi Baku
Kapaz -1
15.0%
Draw -1
19.1%
Neftchi Baku +1
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kapaz)Actual: Neftchi Baku
Kapaz +1
64.0%
Draw +1
19.8%
Neftchi Baku -1
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kapaz)Actual: Draw
Kapaz +2
83.8%
Draw +2
10.7%
Neftchi Baku -2
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kapaz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.90
0.53
1.07
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (18)
0.56
1.17
0.80
1.40
0.25
0.88
vs Similar (11)
0.27
0.55
0.00
0.40
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neftchi Baku
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.67
0.94
0.35
0.38
1.08
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.36
0.62
0.12
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (13)
1.08
0.69
1.38
0.50
0.60
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kapaz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kapaz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.07
0.67
0.93
0.47
1.20
vs Stronger (18)
0.56
1.39
0.70
1.30
0.38
1.50
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.64
0.60
0.20
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neftchi Baku
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.82
0.59
0.46
0.85
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.71
0.50
0.62
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (13)
1.08
0.38
1.25
0.38
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kapaz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
Kapaz's squad is €8m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€5m vs €13m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Kapaz's attack is €3m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€1m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
SƏB (1)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
Kapaz's midfield is €1m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€2m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Kapaz's defence is €4m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€3m vs €6m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Qarabag
Zira
Araz
Turan
Sabah FA
Şamaxı FK
Sumqayıt
Səbail