PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Kapaz vs Neftchi Baku Result & Analysis

Date: 05/03/2025
Time: 13:00
Final 1-0
Kapaz
Kapaz
Vs
33%
26%
40%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kapaz win✓ Hit
33.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku win✗ Miss
40.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KapazKapaz

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L00D52W01L32W02L00D11D02L01LA·NEF15/12H·SUM20/12H·TUR19/01A·SƏB25/01H·SAB31/01H·NEF05/02A·ARA10/02H·ŞAM17/02A·ZIR24/02A·NEF28/02
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.801.132.000.731.60
vs Stronger (20)0.902.201.402.700.401.70
vs Similar (9)0.441.110.600.600.251.75
vs Weaker (1)6.000.00--6.000.00
Clean sheet %20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W11D11D12L10W20W21W01L10W10WH·KAP15/12A·TUR21/12H·SAB19/01A·ARA26/01H·ŞAM31/01A·KAP05/02A·ZIR10/02H·QAR16/02H·SUM21/02H·KAP28/02
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.131.470.941.081.38
vs Stronger (3)0.002.670.002.000.004.00
vs Similar (12)0.671.080.501.000.831.17
vs Weaker (15)2.070.872.440.671.501.17
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.2%
Under 1.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.7%
Under 2.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.3%
Under 3.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.3%
No
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
8.0%
0-1
6.7%
2-2
6.3%
0-2
6.2%
0-0
6.1%
1-0 ✓
6.0%
Kapaz goals ↓
Neftchi Baku goals →
01234
06.1%6.7%6.2%3.2%1.3%
16.0%12%8.8%4.6%1.8%
25.0%8.0%6.3%3.3%1.3%
32.4%3.8%3.0%1.6%0.6%
40.9%1.3%1.1%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kapaz goals (down), columns = Neftchi Baku goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.47
Zira
2.06
Araz
1.61
Turan
1.53
Sabah FA
1.33
Neftchi Baku
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.00
Sumqayıt
0.92
Kapaz
0.89
Səbail
0.61
Kapaz is 0.31 points worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 1.19).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.39
Zira
1.64
Sabah FA
1.39
Turan
1.25
Neftchi Baku
1.08
Araz
0.94
Şamaxı FK
0.89
Sumqayıt
0.86
Səbail
0.78
Kapaz
0.78
Kapaz is 0.31 goals worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals scored per game (0.78 vs 1.08).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Qarabag
0.53
Zira
0.75
Araz
0.81
Turan
1.08
Sabah FA
1.28
Şamaxı FK
1.28
Neftchi Baku
1.36
Sumqayıt
1.47
Səbail
1.64
Kapaz
1.81
Kapaz is 0.44 goals worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals conceded per game (1.81 vs 1.36).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KapazKapaz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D22D01L12L01L00D00D00D01LA·NEF15/12H·SUM20/12H·TUR19/01A·SƏB25/01H·SAB31/01H·NEF05/02A·ARA10/02H·ŞAM17/02A·ZIR24/02A·NEF28/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.830.531.000.330.67
vs Stronger (20)0.450.950.801.300.100.60
vs Similar (9)0.000.670.000.400.001.00
vs Weaker (1)4.000.00--4.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W10W00D01L10W10W00D00D00D10WH·KAP15/12A·TUR21/12H·SAB19/01A·ARA26/01H·ŞAM31/01A·KAP05/02A·ZIR10/02H·QAR16/02H·SUM21/02H·KAP28/02
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.530.760.290.380.85
vs Stronger (3)0.001.330.000.500.003.00
vs Similar (12)0.170.330.170.170.170.50
vs Weaker (15)1.070.531.330.330.670.83
Clean sheet %67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kapaz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KapazKapaz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D30W00D20W01L00D11D02L00DA·NEF15/12H·SUM20/12H·TUR19/01A·SƏB25/01H·SAB31/01H·NEF05/02A·ARA10/02H·ŞAM17/02A·ZIR24/02A·NEF28/02
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.970.601.000.400.93
vs Stronger (20)0.451.250.601.400.301.10
vs Similar (9)0.440.440.600.200.250.75
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L11D11D00D10W21W01L10W00DH·KAP15/12A·TUR21/12H·SAB19/01A·ARA26/01H·ŞAM31/01A·KAP05/02A·ZIR10/02H·QAR16/02H·SUM21/02H·KAP28/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.600.710.650.690.54
vs Stronger (3)0.001.330.001.500.001.00
vs Similar (12)0.500.750.330.830.670.67
vs Weaker (15)1.000.331.110.330.830.33
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kapaz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.2%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Kapaz's squad is €8m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€5m vs €13m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Kapaz's attack is €3m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€1m vs €4m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Kapaz's midfield is €1m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€2m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Kapaz's defence is €4m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€3m vs €6m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
KAP wins
1
Draws
5
NB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kapaz vs Neftchi Baku · H/A from KAP
DateH/AGameScore
28/02/25ANeftchi Baku Vs KAP1-0
05/02/25HKAP Vs Neftchi Baku0-2
15/12/24ANeftchi Baku Vs KAP2-1
04/10/24HKAP Vs Neftchi Baku4-3
10/05/24ANeftchi Baku Vs KAP5-1
09/03/24HKAP Vs Neftchi Baku3-3
24/12/23ANeftchi Baku Vs KAP2-0
06/08/23HKAP Vs Neftchi Baku1-0

KapazKapaz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/02/25ANeftchi Baku Vs KAP1-0
24/02/25AZira Vs KAP2-0
17/02/25HKAP Vs Şamaxı FK1-1
10/02/25AAraz Vs KAP0-0
05/02/25HKAP Vs Neftchi Baku0-2
31/01/25HKAP Vs Sabah FA3-2
25/01/25ASəbail Vs KAP1-0
19/01/25HKAP Vs Turan5-2
20/12/24HKAP Vs Sumqayıt0-0
15/12/24ANeftchi Baku Vs KAP2-1

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/02/25HNB Vs Kapaz1-0
21/02/25HNB Vs Sumqayıt1-0
16/02/25HNB Vs Qarabag0-1
10/02/25AZira Vs NB1-2
05/02/25AKapaz Vs NB0-2
31/01/25HNB Vs Şamaxı FK1-0
26/01/25AAraz Vs NB2-1
19/01/25HNB Vs Sabah FA1-1
21/12/24ATuran Vs NB1-1
15/12/24HNB Vs Kapaz2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kapaz
Kapaz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDLL1.00
HomeDWWLD1.12
AwayLLDLL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%31%25%
AVG goals3.103.352.83
Over 1.5 %78%85%71%
Over 2.5 %58%58%58%
Over 3.5 %34%38%29%
Scored1.201.271.12
Conceded1.902.081.71
BTTS48%58%38%
Clean Sheet16%12%21%
Corners---
Cards---
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWW1.48
HomeDWLWW1.93
AwayLDLWW0.91
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%57%18%
AVG goals2.562.572.55
Over 1.5 %72%68%77%
Over 2.5 %44%46%41%
Over 3.5 %24%25%23%
Scored1.361.680.95
Conceded1.200.891.59
BTTS44%43%45%
Clean Sheet34%39%27%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3689
78%
2.5
8619+67
2.9
78%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.40.5
-
2ZiraZira3674
64%
2.1
5927+32
2.4
67%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.60.8
-
3ArazAraz3658
42%
1.6
3429+5
1.8
53%
17%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3220.90.8
-
4TuranTuran3655
39%
1.5
4539+6
2.3
64%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.21.1
-
5Sabah FASabah FA3648
28%
1.3
5046+4
2.7
75%
42%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5571.41.3
-
6Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3643
28%
1.2
3949-10
2.4
75%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.11.4
-
7Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3636
25%
1.0
3246-14
2.2
61%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.3
-
8SumqayıtSumqayıt3633
25%
0.9
3153-22
2.3
61%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4240.91.5
-
9KapazKapaz3632
22%
0.9
2865-37
2.6
67%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.81.8
-
10SəbailSəbail3622
11%
0.6
2859-31
2.4
67%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.6
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

← all matches