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Kapaz vs Qarabag Result & Analysis

Date: 18/10/2024
Time: 14:00
Final 0-5
Kapaz
Kapaz
Vs
9%
14%
77%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Qarabag
Qarabag
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kapaz win✗ Miss
8.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
14.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Qarabag win✓ Hit
76.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KapazKapaz

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L02L03L03L04L23L01L02L03L43WA·TUR26/05A·SUM03/08A·QAR09/08H·TUR17/08A·SƏB23/08H·SAB31/08A·ARA13/09H·ŞAM20/09A·ZIR28/09H·NEF04/10
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.272.171.472.271.072.07
vs Stronger (19)1.212.421.702.500.672.33
vs Similar (11)1.361.731.001.801.671.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-25pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QarabagQarabag

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L01L02L31W21W40W03L32W12L10WA·DIN20/08H·TUR24/08H·DIN28/08A·ZIR01/09H·SƏB14/09H·NEF20/09A·TOT26/09H·SAB29/09H·MAL03/10A·SUM06/10
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.401.402.601.332.201.47
vs Stronger (3)1.332.672.002.001.003.00
vs Similar (7)1.432.291.252.001.672.67
vs Weaker (20)2.900.903.201.002.600.80
Clean sheet %23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%2%06%115%220%320%416%521%6+
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.3%
Under 1.5
8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
76.0%
Under 2.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
56.4%
Under 3.5
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.6%
No
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.3%
0-2
8.3%
1-3
8.3%
0-3
8.3%
1-4
6.2%
0-4
6.2%
1-1
6.1%
0-1
5.0%
Kapaz goals ↓
Qarabag goals →
01234
02.4%5.0%8.3%8.3%6.2%
11.3%6.1%8.3%8.3%6.2%
20.9%2.8%4.2%4.1%3.1%
30.3%0.9%1.4%1.4%1.0%
40.1%0.2%0.3%0.3%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kapaz goals (down), columns = Qarabag goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.47
Zira
2.06
Araz
1.61
Turan
1.53
Sabah FA
1.33
Neftchi Baku
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.00
Sumqayıt
0.92
Kapaz
0.89
Səbail
0.61
Kapaz is 1.58 points worse than Qarabag in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 2.47).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.39
Zira
1.64
Sabah FA
1.39
Turan
1.25
Neftchi Baku
1.08
Araz
0.94
Şamaxı FK
0.89
Sumqayıt
0.86
Səbail
0.78
Kapaz
0.78
Kapaz is 1.61 goals worse than Qarabag in terms of goals scored per game (0.78 vs 2.39).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Qarabag
0.53
Zira
0.75
Araz
0.81
Turan
1.08
Sabah FA
1.28
Şamaxı FK
1.28
Neftchi Baku
1.36
Sumqayıt
1.47
Səbail
1.64
Kapaz
1.81
Kapaz is 1.28 goals worse than Qarabag in terms of goals conceded per game (1.81 vs 0.53).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KapazKapaz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L00D02L02L20W00D02L01L32WA·TUR26/05A·SUM03/08A·QAR09/08H·TUR17/08A·SƏB23/08H·SAB31/08A·ARA13/09H·ŞAM20/09A·ZIR28/09H·NEF04/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.800.801.000.470.60
vs Stronger (19)0.580.840.901.000.220.67
vs Similar (11)0.730.730.601.000.830.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QarabagQarabag

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L01L21W10W30W01L31W11D00DA·DIN20/08H·TUR24/08H·DIN28/08A·ZIR01/09H·SƏB14/09H·NEF20/09A·TOT26/09H·SAB29/09H·MAL03/10A·SUM06/10
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.501.270.400.870.60
vs Stronger (3)0.670.332.000.000.000.50
vs Similar (7)1.141.141.000.751.331.67
vs Weaker (20)1.100.301.300.300.900.30
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kapaz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KapazKapaz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L03L01L02L03L01L00D02L11DA·TUR26/05A·SUM03/08A·QAR09/08H·TUR17/08A·SƏB23/08H·SAB31/08A·ARA13/09H·ŞAM20/09A·ZIR28/09H·NEF04/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.370.671.270.601.47
vs Stronger (19)0.631.580.801.500.441.67
vs Similar (11)0.641.000.400.800.831.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QarabagQarabag

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D01L10W11D10W02L01L01L10WA·DIN20/08H·TUR24/08H·DIN28/08A·ZIR01/09H·SƏB14/09H·NEF20/09A·TOT26/09H·SAB29/09H·MAL03/10A·SUM06/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.330.901.330.931.330.87
vs Stronger (3)0.672.330.002.001.002.50
vs Similar (7)0.291.140.251.250.331.00
vs Weaker (20)1.800.601.900.701.700.50
Clean sheet %37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kapaz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.591.3%-------✓ Hit
Away win76.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.576.0%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Qarabag
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Juninho Vieira25%
Toral Bayramov10%
Abdellah Zoubir10%
Leandro Andrade10%
Yassine Benzia0%
Abbas Hüseynov0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Matheus Silva0%
Patrick Andrade0%
Fabijan Buntić0%
Marko Janković0%
Marko Vešović0%
Kevin Medina0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Cafarquliyev0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Júlio Romão0%
Emmanuel Addai0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kevin Medina50%
Júlio Romão33%
Marko Janković25%
Patrick Andrade22%
Elvin Cafarquliyev22%
Abbas Hüseynov20%
Bədavi Huseynov20%
Marko Vešović20%
Mateusz Kochalski14%
Juninho Vieira12%
Emmanuel Addai12%
Yassine Benzia11%
Abdellah Zoubir10%
Toral Bayramov0%
Matheus Silva0%
Fabijan Buntić0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nariman Akhundzade20%
Yassine Benzia11%
Abdellah Zoubir10%
Abbas Hüseynov0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Toral Bayramov0%
Juninho Vieira0%
Matheus Silva0%
Patrick Andrade0%
Fabijan Buntić0%
Marko Janković0%
Marko Vešović0%
Kevin Medina0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Cafarquliyev0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Júlio Romão0%
Emmanuel Addai0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Juninho Vieira75%
Yassine Benzia22%
Toral Bayramov10%
Abdellah Zoubir10%
Abbas Hüseynov0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Matheus Silva0%
Patrick Andrade0%
Fabijan Buntić0%
Marko Janković0%
Marko Vešović0%
Kevin Medina0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Cafarquliyev0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Júlio Romão0%
Emmanuel Addai0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Kapaz's squad is €19m less valuable than Qarabag's (€5m vs €25m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Kapaz's attack is €7m less valuable than Qarabag's (€1m vs €8m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Kapaz's midfield is €2m less valuable than Qarabag's (€2m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Kapaz's defence is €11m less valuable than Qarabag's (€3m vs €14m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
0
KAP wins
2
Draws
6
QAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kapaz vs Qarabag · H/A from KAP
DateH/AGameScore
09/08/24AQarabag Vs KAP3-0
29/03/24HKAP Vs Qarabag1-6
27/01/24HKAP Vs Qarabag1-2
04/11/23AQarabag Vs KAP7-1
27/08/23AQarabag Vs KAP1-1
09/04/23AQarabag Vs KAP3-1
04/02/23HKAP Vs Qarabag1-1
06/11/22AQarabag Vs KAP3-1

KapazKapaz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/10/24HKAP Vs Neftchi Baku4-3
28/09/24AZira Vs KAP3-0
20/09/24HKAP Vs Şamaxı FK0-2
13/09/24AAraz Vs KAP1-0
31/08/24HKAP Vs Sabah FA2-3
23/08/24ASəbail Vs KAP4-0
17/08/24HKAP Vs Turan0-3
09/08/24AQarabag Vs KAP3-0
03/08/24ASumqayıt Vs KAP2-0
26/05/24ATuran Vs KAP1-0

QarabagQarabag

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/10/24ASumqayıt Vs QAR0-1
03/10/24HQAR Vs Malmo FF1-2
29/09/24HQAR Vs Sabah FA3-2
26/09/24ATottenham Vs QAR3-0
20/09/24HQAR Vs Neftchi Baku4-0
14/09/24HQAR Vs Səbail2-1
01/09/24AZira Vs QAR1-3
28/08/24HQAR Vs Dinamo Zagreb0-2
24/08/24HQAR Vs Turan0-1
20/08/24ADinamo Zagreb Vs QAR3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kapaz
Kapaz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 1 Wins / 0 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW0.80
HomeLLLLW0.76
AwayLLLLL0.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%20%20%
AVG goals2.963.042.88
Over 1.5 %76%80%72%
Over 2.5 %56%60%52%
Over 3.5 %30%28%32%
Scored0.961.000.92
Conceded2.002.041.96
BTTS50%56%44%
Clean Sheet12%8%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Qarabag
Qarabag
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLW2.02
HomeLWWWL2.04
AwayWLWLW2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %64%64%64%
AVG goals3.783.763.80
Over 1.5 %88%92%84%
Over 2.5 %78%76%80%
Over 3.5 %54%52%56%
Scored2.442.562.32
Conceded1.341.201.48
BTTS62%56%68%
Clean Sheet24%28%20%
Corners9.258.5010.00
Cards4.314.574.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3689
78%
2.5
8619+67
2.9
78%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.40.5
-
2ZiraZira3674
64%
2.1
5927+32
2.4
67%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.60.8
-
3ArazAraz3658
42%
1.6
3429+5
1.8
53%
17%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3220.90.8
-
4TuranTuran3655
39%
1.5
4539+6
2.3
64%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.21.1
-
5Sabah FASabah FA3648
28%
1.3
5046+4
2.7
75%
42%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5571.41.3
-
6Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3643
28%
1.2
3949-10
2.4
75%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.11.4
-
7Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3636
25%
1.0
3246-14
2.2
61%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.3
-
8SumqayıtSumqayıt3633
25%
0.9
3153-22
2.3
61%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4240.91.5
-
9KapazKapaz3632
22%
0.9
2865-37
2.6
67%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.81.8
-
10SəbailSəbail3622
11%
0.6
2859-31
2.4
67%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.6
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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