The match between Kapaz and Sumqayit is a tight affair, with the model favouring an away win. Home win probability stands at 29 %, a draw at 31 %, and the away side at 41 %. The expected total is 2.3 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 28 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.4 % chance. Kapaz, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. Sumqayit, on the road against a comparable side, averages 1.36 goals scored and 1.18 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7 %), Under 6.5 (99.0 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.9 %), Under 5.5 (96.9 %), Away under 3.5 goals (95.8 %), Under 4.5 (91.4 %), Home under 2.5 goals (91.3 %), and Away +2 handicap (88.7 %). Kapaz’s recent form shows a 3-game losing streak, last losing 0-2 to Sabah FA, while Sumqayit also lost three straight, most recently 1-3 to Neftchi Baku. The balance of the contest remains finely poised.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kapaz win
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt win
38.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kapaz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.43
1.06
1.31
0.64
1.57
vs Stronger (19)
0.58
1.53
0.56
1.56
0.60
1.50
vs Similar (11)
1.36
1.27
1.71
1.00
0.75
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sumqayıt
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.57
1.21
1.79
1.38
1.38
vs Stronger (12)
1.17
2.50
1.25
2.62
1.00
2.25
vs Similar (17)
1.29
1.00
1.17
0.67
1.36
1.18
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.1%
Under 1.5
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.0%
Under 2.5
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.0%
Under 3.5
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.7%
No
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.9%
0-1
11.5%
1-0
9.6%
1-2
8.0%
0-2
7.8%
2-1
6.9%
2-0
5.7%
Kapaz goals ↓
Sumqayıt goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
11%
7.8%
3.1%
1.0%
1
9.6%
15%
8.0%
3.3%
1.0%
2
5.7%
6.9%
4.2%
1.7%
0.5%
3
2.0%
2.4%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kapaz goals (down), columns = Sumqayıt goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Safa Baku
1.09
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Kapaz is 0.37 points worse than Sumqayıt in terms of average points per game (0.82 vs 1.19).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Safa Baku
1.02
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Kapaz is 0.55 goals worse than Sumqayıt in terms of goals scored per game (0.76 vs 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Qarabag
0.82
Turan
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Safa Baku
1.57
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Kapaz is 0.32 goals worse than Sumqayıt in terms of goals conceded per game (1.85 vs 1.53).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kapaz or Draw
61.2%
Avg Implied -
30%
31%
39%
covers Kapaz + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kapaz or Sumqayıt
68.7%
Avg Implied -
30%
31%
39%
covers Kapaz + Sumqayıt
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sumqayıt
70.0%
Avg Implied -
30%
31%
39%
covers Draw + Sumqayıt
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kapaz over/under 0.5
Over
64.5%
Under
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5
Over
27.8%
Under
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 3.5
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5
Over
70.3%
Under
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5
Over
34.2%
Under
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kapaz, so a minus line means Kapaz give that many goals of a start and Sumqayıt receive them. At -1, Kapaz must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kapaz win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kapaz)
Kapaz -2
3.5%
Draw -2
8.4%
Sumqayıt +2
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kapaz)
Kapaz -1
11.9%
Draw -1
18.1%
Sumqayıt +1
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kapaz)
Kapaz +1
61.2%
Draw +1
21.4%
Sumqayıt -1
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kapaz)
Kapaz +2
82.6%
Draw +2
11.6%
Sumqayıt -2
5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kapaz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.62
0.62
0.21
0.57
vs Stronger (19)
0.26
0.63
0.33
0.78
0.20
0.50
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.55
1.00
0.43
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sumqayıt
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.73
0.36
0.86
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.25
0.25
1.38
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.41
0.50
0.17
0.36
0.55
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kapaz over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kapaz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.83
0.44
0.69
0.43
1.00
vs Stronger (19)
0.32
0.89
0.22
0.78
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.73
0.71
0.57
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sumqayıt
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.83
0.86
0.93
0.94
0.75
vs Stronger (12)
0.92
1.25
1.00
1.25
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (17)
0.88
0.59
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kapaz over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
Kapaz's squad is €4m less valuable than Sumqayıt's (€5m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
Kapaz's attack is €3m less valuable than Sumqayıt's (€1m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
Kapaz and Sumqayıt have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
Kapaz's defence is €1m less valuable than Sumqayıt's (€3m vs €4m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zira
Neftchi Baku
Qarabag
Sabah FA
Turan
Imisli FK
Safa Baku
Şamaxı FK
Qabala
Araz