Karlovac 1919 are tipped to win, with a 57% chance of triumph, 25% for a draw and 17% for Hrvace. The model expects 2.6 goals in total, most likely a single 2-goal match, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 12.1%. Karlovac’s home form shows they average 1.62 goals scored and only 0.62 conceded against similar opposition, while Hrvace, on the road, average 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 conceded. The suggested selections are Over 1.5 goals at 75%, Under 3.5 at 72.8%, and the model’s pick remains a home win. The match is set for a 57% home win, 25% draw, 17% away win, with the single scoreline 1-1 highlighted. Karlovac’s recent win over Opatija gives them momentum, whereas Hrvace’s five-match losing streak suggests they will struggle to find the net.
Results analysis
Karlovac 1919’s recent win extended their positive run, while Hrvace entered the match after five straight defeats. The model’s favourite, a home win, proved correct as Karlovac triumphed 3-0, matching the actual result. The pre-match probability for the home win was 57%. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with a 75% probability, hit as the match produced three goals, and its Under 3.5 choice, at 72.8%, also hit, keeping the total under four. All suggested picks settled, and the favoured outcome landed, confirming the model’s predictions.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Karlovac 1919 win✓ Hit
57.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hrvace win✗ Miss
17.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Karlovac 1919
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.44
1.06
1.62
0.62
1.25
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.44
1.06
1.62
0.62
1.25
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
25% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Hrvace) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hrvace
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.12
1.44
1.11
1.00
1.14
2.00
vs Stronger (2)
2.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.93
1.50
0.88
1.12
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
19% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Karlovac 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.0%
Under 1.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.0%
Under 2.5
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.2%
Under 3.5
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.3%
No
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
1-0
11.5%
2-0
11.1%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.3%
3-0 ✓
6.5%
3-1
5.7%
0-1
5.2%
Karlovac 1919 goals ↓
Hrvace goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
5.2%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
1
12%
12%
4.8%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.7%
4.2%
1.2%
0.3%
3
6.5%
5.7%
2.5%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.9%
2.5%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Karlovac 1919 goals (down), columns = Hrvace goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rudes
1.97
HNK Cibalia
1.76
Sesvete
1.73
Dugopolje
1.64
Dubrava Zagreb
1.42
Karlovac 1919
1.27
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.27
Opatija
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.15
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
1.06
Jarun
1.00
Karlovac 1919 is 0.18 points better than Hrvace in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
HNK Cibalia
1.55
Rudes
1.48
Sesvete
1.27
Orijent 1919
1.21
Karlovac 1919
1.21
Dugopolje
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.18
Hrvace
1.09
Jarun
1.03
Croatia Zmijavci
0.97
Opatija
0.94
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Karlovac 1919 is 0.12 goals better than Hrvace in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sesvete
0.85
Rudes
0.88
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
HNK Cibalia
1.00
Opatija
1.15
Dugopolje
1.15
Orijent 1919
1.24
Jarun
1.27
Karlovac 1919
1.36
Croatia Zmijavci
1.39
Dubrava Zagreb
1.39
Hrvace
1.45
Karlovac 1919 is 0.09 goals better than Hrvace in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.45).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Karlovac 1919
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.69
0.38
0.75
0.12
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.38
0.75
0.12
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
75% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Hrvace) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hrvace
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.56
0.56
0.56
0.56
0.57
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.57
0.50
0.62
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Karlovac 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Karlovac 1919 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karlovac 1919 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karlovac 1919 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Karlovac 1919
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
0.69
0.88
0.50
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.69
0.88
0.50
0.62
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
44% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Hrvace) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hrvace
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.56
0.88
0.56
0.44
0.57
1.43
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.93
0.38
0.50
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
38% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Karlovac 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Karlovac 1919 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karlovac 1919 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karlovac 1919 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (27)
€5m
K1 (26)
€4m
SES (22)
€3m
DUG (22)
€2m
OPA (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
HRV (20)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
Karlovac 1919's squad is €1m more valuable than Hrvace's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (13)
€3m
K1 (10)
€2m
HRV (8)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
SES (7)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
OPA (7)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
Karlovac 1919's attack is €1m more valuable than Hrvace's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (4)
€1m
DZ (3)
€1m
RUD (4)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
K1 (5)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
HRV (3)
€0m
Karlovac 1919 and Hrvace have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (11)
€2m
RUD (10)
€1m
OPA (10)
€1m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
HRV (9)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
K1 (11)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
Karlovac 1919 and Hrvace have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Croatia: First NL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →