Karvan are clear favorites, with the model assigning an 89% chance of a home win and a 2% chance of a Cəbrayıl victory, while a draw sits at 8%. The predicted result is a decisive home triumph, reflected in the 3-0 scoreline that tops the most likely scores list at 13.9%. The match is expected to see 3.8 goals on average, with the most probable total of three goals occurring 21% of the time. Karvan’s home form shows they are strong at scoring and conceding fewer than the 2.33 average conceded by Cəbrayıl on the road, who struggle against stronger opponents, scoring only 0.8 goals per game. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (99.9%), Home +2 handicap (99.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (98.8%), Home or Draw (97.7%), Home +1 handicap (97.7%), Home over 0.5 goals (96.3%), Under 7.5 (96.3%) and Away under 1.5 goals (91.8%). The home win probability remains the highest at 89%, the draw at 8%, and the away win at 2%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Karvan win
86.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
10.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl win
3.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Karvan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.97
0.87
1.80
0.67
2.13
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
2.47
0.57
2.00
0.38
2.88
vs Similar (15)
1.07
1.47
1.12
1.62
1.00
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cəbrayıl
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
2.00
2.00
1.67
0.87
2.33
vs Stronger (30)
1.43
2.00
2.00
1.67
0.87
2.33
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.0%
Under 1.5
12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
69.9%
Under 2.5
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
48.6%
Under 3.5
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
40.5%
No
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0
13.0%
2-0
12.8%
4-0
10.0%
1-0
7.9%
3-1
7.1%
2-1
7.0%
5-0
6.1%
4-1
5.4%
Karvan goals ↓
Cəbrayıl goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.2%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
1
7.9%
5.0%
1.2%
0.2%
0.0%
2
13%
7.0%
1.9%
0.3%
0.0%
3
13%
7.1%
1.9%
0.4%
0.0%
4
10.0%
5.4%
1.5%
0.3%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Karvan goals (down), columns = Cəbrayıl goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Karvan is 1.58 points better than Cəbrayıl in terms of average points per game (2.47 vs 0.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Karvan is 1.21 goals better than Cəbrayıl in terms of goals scored per game (2.69 vs 1.48).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Karvan is 1.33 goals better than Cəbrayıl in terms of goals conceded per game (0.75 vs 2.07).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Karvan or Draw
96.5%
Avg Implied -
86%
10%
3%
covers Karvan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Karvan or Cəbrayıl
89.6%
Avg Implied -
86%
10%
3%
covers Karvan + Cəbrayıl
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Cəbrayıl
13.9%
Avg Implied -
86%
10%
3%
covers Draw + Cəbrayıl
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Karvan over/under 0.5
Over
95.3%
Under
4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5
Over
81.0%
Under
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5
Over
59.1%
Under
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 3.5
Over
36.7%
Under
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 0.5
Over
42.0%
Under
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 1.5
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 2.5
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 3.5
Over
0.2%
Under
99.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Karvan, so a minus line means Karvan give that many goals of a start and Cəbrayıl receive them. At -1, Karvan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Karvan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Karvan)
Karvan -2
47.7%
Draw -2
21.5%
Cəbrayıl +2
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Karvan)
Karvan -1
69.1%
Draw -1
17.0%
Cəbrayıl +1
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Karvan)
Karvan +1
96.5%
Draw +1
2.6%
Cəbrayıl -1
0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Karvan)
Karvan +2
99.2%
Draw +2
0.7%
Cəbrayıl -2
0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Karvan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.47
0.47
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
1.00
0.43
0.57
0.12
1.38
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.53
0.50
0.38
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cəbrayıl
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.93
0.73
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (30)
0.67
0.90
0.93
0.73
0.40
1.07
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Karvan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Karvan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.20
0.40
1.33
0.27
1.07
vs Stronger (15)
0.20
1.47
0.14
1.43
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.93
0.62
1.25
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cəbrayıl
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.10
1.07
0.93
0.47
1.27
vs Stronger (30)
0.77
1.10
1.07
0.93
0.47
1.27
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Karvan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (4)
€1m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
Karvan and Cəbrayıl have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Karvan and Cəbrayıl have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (1)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
Karvan and Cəbrayıl have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (3)
€1m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Karvan and Cəbrayıl have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →