Karvan’s recent draw streak and a 1-1 finish against Imisli FK give the home side a slight lift, but the model still favors a home win, assigning Karvan a 71% chance to triumph. The probability of a draw sits at 19%, while Mingəçevir’s 10% chance of victory reflects their weaker away form against stronger opponents, with an average of 1.25 goals scored and conceded. The expected total goals is 3.1, yet the most likely total is 2, a figure that carries a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 for Karvan, with a 12.2% chance. Karvan’s home form shows they are likely to score twice and concede once, whereas Mingəçevir’s away form suggests a similar goal tally but with a slightly higher concession rate. The model’s selections include Away under 3.5 goals at 99.2%, Under 7.5 at 98.6%, Home +2 handicap at 97.0%, Under 6.5 at 96.1%, Away under 2.5 goals at 95.6%, Under 5.5 at 90.5%, Home over 0.5 goals at 90.3%, and Home or Draw at 90.1%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages, and every selection is listed with its exact figure.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Karvan win
69.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
19.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir win
10.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Karvan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.97
0.87
1.80
0.67
2.13
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
2.47
0.57
2.00
0.38
2.88
vs Similar (15)
1.07
1.47
1.12
1.62
1.00
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mingəçevir
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.17
2.40
1.00
1.47
1.33
vs Stronger (24)
1.75
1.21
2.25
1.17
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (3)
3.33
1.00
3.50
0.50
3.00
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.4%
Under 1.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.4%
Under 2.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.0%
Under 3.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.5%
No
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.2%
1-0
10.0%
2-1
9.6%
1-1
9.4%
3-0
9.1%
3-1
7.2%
0-0
5.7%
4-0
5.1%
Karvan goals ↓
Mingəçevir goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
2.9%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
1
10.0%
9.4%
3.3%
0.9%
0.2%
2
12%
9.6%
3.8%
1.0%
0.2%
3
9.1%
7.2%
2.8%
0.7%
0.1%
4
5.1%
4.0%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Karvan goals (down), columns = Mingəçevir goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Karvan is 0.58 points better than Mingəçevir in terms of average points per game (2.47 vs 1.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Karvan is 0.65 goals better than Mingəçevir in terms of goals scored per game (2.69 vs 2.04).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Karvan is 0.25 goals better than Mingəçevir in terms of goals conceded per game (0.75 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Karvan or Draw
89.3%
Avg Implied -
70%
20%
11%
covers Karvan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Karvan or Mingəçevir
80.4%
Avg Implied -
70%
20%
11%
covers Karvan + Mingəçevir
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Mingəçevir
30.3%
Avg Implied -
70%
20%
11%
covers Draw + Mingəçevir
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Karvan over/under 0.5
Over
89.5%
Under
10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5
Over
65.7%
Under
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5
Over
39.0%
Under
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 3.5
Over
19.0%
Under
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5
Over
54.4%
Under
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5
Over
18.6%
Under
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Karvan, so a minus line means Karvan give that many goals of a start and Mingəçevir receive them. At -1, Karvan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Karvan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Karvan)
Karvan -2
25.8%
Draw -2
21.1%
Mingəçevir +2
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Karvan)
Karvan -1
46.9%
Draw -1
22.8%
Mingəçevir +1
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Karvan)
Karvan +1
89.3%
Draw +1
7.4%
Mingəçevir -1
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Karvan)
Karvan +2
96.7%
Draw +2
2.6%
Mingəçevir -2
0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Karvan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.47
0.47
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
1.00
0.43
0.57
0.12
1.38
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.53
0.50
0.38
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mingəçevir
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.67
1.07
0.40
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (24)
0.71
0.62
1.08
0.50
0.33
0.75
vs Similar (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Karvan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Karvan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.20
0.40
1.33
0.27
1.07
vs Stronger (15)
0.20
1.47
0.14
1.43
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.93
0.62
1.25
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mingəçevir
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.50
1.33
0.60
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (24)
1.04
0.58
1.17
0.67
0.92
0.50
vs Similar (3)
2.00
0.33
2.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Karvan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (4)
€1m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
Karvan and Mingəçevir have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Karvan and Mingəçevir have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (1)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (3)
€1m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Karvan and Mingəçevir have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →