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Karvan vs Mingəçevir Prediction & Stats

Date: 25/11/2026
Time: 15:00
Karvan
Karvan
Vs
70%
20%
11%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Karvan’s recent draw streak and a 1-1 finish against Imisli FK give the home side a slight lift, but the model still favors a home win, assigning Karvan a 71% chance to triumph. The probability of a draw sits at 19%, while Mingəçevir’s 10% chance of victory reflects their weaker away form against stronger opponents, with an average of 1.25 goals scored and conceded. The expected total goals is 3.1, yet the most likely total is 2, a figure that carries a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 for Karvan, with a 12.2% chance. Karvan’s home form shows they are likely to score twice and concede once, whereas Mingəçevir’s away form suggests a similar goal tally but with a slightly higher concession rate. The model’s selections include Away under 3.5 goals at 99.2%, Under 7.5 at 98.6%, Home +2 handicap at 97.0%, Under 6.5 at 96.1%, Away under 2.5 goals at 95.6%, Under 5.5 at 90.5%, Home over 0.5 goals at 90.3%, and Home or Draw at 90.1%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages, and every selection is listed with its exact figure.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Karvan win
69.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
19.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir win
10.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KarvanKarvan

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-701L07L41W10W02L03L01L12L11D30WH·ZIR19/03A·QAR06/04H·KAP10/04H·ŞAM18/04A·SAB27/04H·NEF05/05A·TUR10/05H·QAB15/05A·IMI24/05A·BAK03/09← Premyer LiqaBirinci Dasta →
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.970.871.800.672.13
vs Stronger (15)0.472.470.572.000.382.88
vs Similar (15)1.071.471.121.621.001.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-711D52W30W21W12L71W02L31W41W02LA·BAK18/03H·SAF03/04A·ŞIM09/04H·DIF16/04A·CƏB22/04H·ZAQ29/04A·ŞAH05/05H·MOI15/05H·SƏB22/05A·QAB28/05← Premyer LiqaBirinci Dasta →
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.172.401.001.471.33
vs Stronger (24)1.751.212.251.171.251.25
vs Similar (3)3.331.003.500.503.002.00
vs Weaker (3)2.001.002.000.002.001.50
Clean sheet %30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.4%
Under 1.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.4%
Under 2.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.0%
Under 3.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.5%
No
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.2%
1-0
10.0%
2-1
9.6%
1-1
9.4%
3-0
9.1%
3-1
7.2%
0-0
5.7%
4-0
5.1%
Karvan goals ↓
Mingəçevir goals →
01234
05.7%2.9%1.5%0.4%0.1%
110.0%9.4%3.3%0.9%0.2%
212%9.6%3.8%1.0%0.2%
39.1%7.2%2.8%0.7%0.1%
45.1%4.0%1.6%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Karvan goals (down), columns = Mingəçevir goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Karvan is 0.58 points better than Mingəçevir in terms of average points per game (2.47 vs 1.89).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Karvan is 0.65 goals better than Mingəçevir in terms of goals scored per game (2.69 vs 2.04).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Karvan is 0.25 goals better than Mingəçevir in terms of goals conceded per game (0.75 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Karvan or Draw
89.3%
Avg Implied -
70%
20%
11%
covers Karvan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Karvan or Mingəçevir
80.4%
Avg Implied -
70%
20%
11%
covers Karvan + Mingəçevir
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Mingəçevir
30.3%
Avg Implied -
70%
20%
11%
covers Draw + Mingəçevir
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Karvan over/under 0.5
Over
89.5%
Under
10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5
Over
65.7%
Under
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5
Over
39.0%
Under
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 3.5
Over
19.0%
Under
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5
Over
54.4%
Under
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5
Over
18.6%
Under
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Karvan, so a minus line means Karvan give that many goals of a start and Mingəçevir receive them. At -1, Karvan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Karvan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Karvan)
Karvan -2
25.8%
Draw -2
21.1%
Mingəçevir +2
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Karvan)
Karvan -1
46.9%
Draw -1
22.8%
Mingəçevir +1
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Karvan)
Karvan +1
89.3%
Draw +1
7.4%
Mingəçevir -1
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Karvan)
Karvan +2
96.7%
Draw +2
2.6%
Mingəçevir -2
0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KarvanKarvan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D05L20W10W00D01L01L00D10W10WH·ZIR19/03A·QAR06/04H·KAP10/04H·ŞAM18/04A·SAB27/04H·NEF05/05A·TUR10/05H·QAB15/05A·IMI24/05A·BAK03/09← Premyer LiqaBirinci Dasta →
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.770.470.470.401.07
vs Stronger (15)0.271.000.430.570.121.38
vs Similar (15)0.600.530.500.380.710.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W00D10W02L20W01L30W21W02LA·BAK18/03H·SAF03/04A·ŞIM09/04H·DIF16/04A·CƏB22/04H·ZAQ29/04A·ŞAH05/05H·MOI15/05H·SƏB22/05A·QAB28/05← Premyer LiqaBirinci Dasta →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.671.070.400.530.93
vs Stronger (24)0.710.621.080.500.330.75
vs Similar (3)1.330.671.000.002.002.00
vs Weaker (3)1.001.001.000.001.001.50
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Karvan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KarvanKarvan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L21W00D02L02L00D12L01L20WH·ZIR19/03A·QAR06/04H·KAP10/04H·ŞAM18/04A·SAB27/04H·NEF05/05A·TUR10/05H·QAB15/05A·IMI24/05A·BAK03/09← Premyer LiqaBirinci Dasta →
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.331.200.401.330.271.07
vs Stronger (15)0.201.470.141.430.251.50
vs Similar (15)0.470.930.621.250.290.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D42W30W11D10W51W01L01L20W00DA·BAK18/03H·SAF03/04A·ŞIM09/04H·DIF16/04A·CƏB22/04H·ZAQ29/04A·ŞAH05/05H·MOI15/05H·SƏB22/05A·QAB28/05← Premyer LiqaBirinci Dasta →
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.501.330.600.930.40
vs Stronger (24)1.040.581.170.670.920.50
vs Similar (3)2.000.332.500.501.000.00
vs Weaker (3)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Karvan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Away under 3.5 goals99.1%-------
Under 7.598.7%-------
Home +2 handicap96.7%-------
Under 6.596.5%-------
Away under 2.5 goals95.5%-------
Under 5.591.3%-------
Home over 0.5 goals89.5%-------
Home or Draw89.3%-------
Home +1 handicap89.3%-------
Over 1.581.4%-------
Away under 1.5 goals81.4%-------
Home under 3.5 goals81.0%-------
Under 4.580.9%-------
Home or Away80.4%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (4)
€1m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
Karvan and Mingəçevir have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Karvan and Mingəçevir have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (1)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (3)
€1m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Karvan and Mingəçevir have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
4
KAR wins
0
Draws
2
MIN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Karvan vs Mingəçevir · H/A from KAR
DateH/AGameScore
22/05/25AMingəçevir Vs KAR2-1
19/12/24HKAR Vs Mingəçevir5-0
18/09/24AMingəçevir Vs KAR1-3
15/05/24HKAR Vs Mingəçevir1-0
14/03/24AMingəçevir Vs KAR1-0
13/09/23HKAR Vs Mingəçevir4-1

KarvanKarvan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/26ABaku Sportinq Vs KAR0-3
24/05/26AImisli FK Vs KAR1-1
15/05/26HKAR Vs Qabala1-2
10/05/26ATuran Vs KAR1-0
05/05/26HKAR Vs Neftchi Baku0-3
27/04/26ASabah FA Vs KAR2-0
18/04/26HKAR Vs Şamaxı FK1-0
10/04/26HKAR Vs Kapaz4-1
06/04/26AQarabag Vs KAR7-0
19/03/26HKAR Vs Zira0-1

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/05/26AQabala Vs MIN2-0
22/05/26HMIN Vs Səbail4-1
15/05/26HMIN Vs MOIK3-1
05/05/26AŞahdağ Vs MIN2-0
29/04/26HMIN Vs Zaqatala7-1
22/04/26ACəbrayıl Vs MIN2-1
16/04/26HMIN Vs Difai Ağsu2-1
09/04/26AŞimal Vs MIN0-3
03/04/26HMIN Vs Safa Baku5-2
18/03/26ABaku Sportinq Vs MIN1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Karvan
Karvan
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDW0.80
HomeLWWLL0.96
AwayLLLDW0.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%24%12%
AVG goals2.802.722.88
Over 1.5 %88%92%84%
Over 2.5 %48%48%48%
Over 3.5 %20%20%20%
Scored1.001.120.88
Conceded1.801.602.00
BTTS54%56%52%
Clean Sheet10%12%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWL1.64
HomeWWWWW1.92
AwayDWLLL1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%54%38%
AVG goals2.802.712.88
Over 1.5 %76%71%81%
Over 2.5 %50%46%54%
Over 3.5 %34%33%35%
Scored1.621.881.38
Conceded1.180.831.50
BTTS48%50%46%
Clean Sheet36%42%31%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KarvanKarvan13
100%
3.0
30+3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0003.00.0
-
2ŞahdağŞahdağ13
100%
3.0
10+1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.0
-
3SəbailSəbail11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.0
-
4Xankəndi FKXankəndi FK11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
5MingəçevirMingəçevir00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
6ŞimalŞimal00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
8CəbrayılCəbrayıl00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
9MOIKMOIK10
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
10Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq10
0%
0.0
03-3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.03.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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