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Karvan vs Qaradağ Lökbatan Result & Analysis

Date: 11/09/2024
Time: 13:00
Final 1-0
Karvan
Karvan
Vs
27%
33%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Qaradağ Lökbatan
Qaradağ Lökbatan
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Karvan win✓ Hit
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan win✗ Miss
40.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KarvanKarvan

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-801L00D11D10W01L42W10W03L10W83WA·MIN14/03H·DIF28/03A·ZAQ05/04H·MOI11/04H·QAR18/04A·ARA25/04H·IMI01/05A·ŞAM09/05H·MIN15/05A·İRƏ22/05
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.481.261.001.142.001.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.221.330.801.301.751.38
vs Weaker (9)2.001.111.500.752.401.40
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Qaradağ Lökbatan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D30W21W20W10W11D31W00D23L22DA·ŞAM13/03H·İRƏ28/03A·DIF04/04H·ZAQ11/04A·KAR18/04H·MOI25/04H·ARA02/05A·IMI09/05H·ŞAM16/05A·MIN22/05
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.570.771.750.881.360.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.060.881.001.111.120.62
vs Weaker (13)2.230.622.710.571.670.67
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%14%024%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
62.4%
Under 1.5
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
34.0%
Under 2.5
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.4%
Under 3.5
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
42.1%
No
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
14.1%
0-1
13.5%
1-0 ✓
10.1%
0-2
8.6%
1-2
7.7%
2-1
6.0%
2-0
5.1%
Karvan goals ↓
Qaradağ Lökbatan goals →
01234
014%13%8.6%3.3%1.0%
110%15%7.7%3.0%0.9%
25.1%6.0%3.5%1.3%0.4%
31.5%1.8%1.0%0.4%0.1%
40.3%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Karvan goals (down), columns = Qaradağ Lökbatan goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qabala
2.48
Imisli FK
1.93
Karvan
1.74
Mingəçevir
1.30
Zaqatala
1.26
MOIK
1.11
Baku Sportinq
1.04
Cəbrayıl
1.00
Difai Ağsu
0.96
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.89
Karvan is 0.85 points better than Qaradağ Lökbatan in terms of average points per game (1.74 vs 0.89).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qabala
2.07
Karvan
1.96
Imisli FK
1.59
Difai Ağsu
1.33
Zaqatala
1.30
Mingəçevir
1.11
MOIK
1.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Cəbrayıl
0.85
Baku Sportinq
0.78
Karvan is 0.96 goals better than Qaradağ Lökbatan in terms of goals scored per game (1.96 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Qabala
0.30
Imisli FK
0.74
Cəbrayıl
1.26
Zaqatala
1.26
Mingəçevir
1.33
Karvan
1.37
Baku Sportinq
1.59
MOIK
1.59
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.63
Difai Ağsu
1.93
Karvan is 0.26 goals better than Qaradağ Lökbatan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.37 vs 1.63).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KarvanKarvan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L00D10W00D00D20W10W02L00D42WA·MIN14/03H·DIF28/03A·ZAQ05/04H·MOI11/04H·QAR18/04A·ARA25/04H·IMI01/05A·ŞAM09/05H·MIN15/05A·İRƏ22/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.560.630.290.640.850.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.500.720.300.800.750.62
vs Weaker (9)0.670.440.250.251.000.60
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Qaradağ Lökbatan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W11D00D00D11D31W00D21W20WA·ŞAM13/03H·İRƏ28/03A·DIF04/04H·ZAQ11/04A·KAR18/04H·MOI25/04H·ARA02/05A·IMI09/05H·ŞAM16/05A·MIN22/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.330.560.440.790.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.530.350.440.440.620.25
vs Weaker (13)0.850.310.710.431.000.17
Clean sheet %70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Karvan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KarvanKarvan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D01L10W01L22D00D01L10W41WA·MIN14/03H·DIF28/03A·ZAQ05/04H·MOI11/04H·QAR18/04A·ARA25/04H·IMI01/05A·ŞAM09/05H·MIN15/05A·İRƏ22/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.630.710.501.150.77
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.720.610.500.501.000.75
vs Weaker (9)1.330.671.250.501.400.80
Clean sheet %48% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Qaradağ Lökbatan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L20W10W20W10W00D00D00D02L02LA·ŞAM13/03H·İRƏ28/03A·DIF04/04H·ZAQ11/04A·KAR18/04H·MOI25/04H·ARA02/05A·IMI09/05H·ŞAM16/05A·MIN22/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.431.190.440.570.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.530.530.560.670.500.38
vs Weaker (13)1.380.312.000.140.670.50
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Karvan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.584.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (18)
€6m
QAB (18)
€5m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
KAR wins
0
Draws
2
QL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Karvan vs Qaradağ Lökbatan · H/A from KAR
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/24HKAR Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan0-1
15/02/24AQaradağ Lökbatan Vs KAR0-1
25/10/23HKAR Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan1-2

KarvanKarvan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/05/24Aİrəvan Vs KAR3-8
15/05/24HKAR Vs Mingəçevir1-0
09/05/24AŞamaxı FK Vs KAR3-0
01/05/24HKAR Vs Imisli FK1-0
25/04/24AAraz Saatlı Vs KAR2-4
18/04/24HKAR Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan0-1
11/04/24HKAR Vs MOIK1-0
05/04/24AZaqatala Vs KAR1-1
28/03/24HKAR Vs Difai Ağsu0-0
14/03/24AMingəçevir Vs KAR1-0

Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/05/24AMingəçevir Vs QL2-2
16/05/24HQL Vs Şamaxı FK2-3
09/05/24AImisli FK Vs QL0-0
02/05/24HQL Vs Araz Saatlı3-1
25/04/24HQL Vs MOIK1-1
18/04/24AKarvan Vs QL0-1
11/04/24HQL Vs Zaqatala2-0
04/04/24ADifai Ağsu Vs QL1-2
28/03/24HQL Vs İrəvan3-0
13/03/24AŞamaxı FK Vs QL2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Karvan
Karvan
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWW1.63
HomeDWLWW1.64
AwayLDWLW1.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%50%46%
AVG goals2.742.143.38
Over 1.5 %59%57%62%
Over 2.5 %37%29%46%
Over 3.5 %26%14%38%
Scored1.481.002.00
Conceded1.261.141.38
BTTS33%21%46%
Clean Sheet37%50%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Qaradağ Lökbatan
Qaradağ Lökbatan
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDLD1.78
HomeWWDWL1.88
AwayDWWDD1.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%56%44%
AVG goals2.102.361.84
Over 1.5 %60%64%56%
Over 2.5 %38%44%32%
Over 3.5 %16%16%16%
Scored1.341.601.08
Conceded0.760.760.76
BTTS34%36%32%
Clean Sheet50%48%52%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QabalaQabala2767
78%
2.5
568+48
2.4
70%
41%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1132.10.3
-
2Imisli FKImisli FK2752
56%
1.9
4320+23
2.3
63%
44%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3131.60.7
-
3KarvanKarvan2747
48%
1.7
5337+16
3.3
93%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.4
-
4MingəçevirMingəçevir2735
33%
1.3
3036-6
2.4
67%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
-
5ZaqatalaZaqatala2734
30%
1.3
3534+1
2.6
67%
48%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
6MOIKMOIK2730
30%
1.1
2743-16
2.6
63%
59%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
7Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq2728
26%
1.0
2143-22
2.4
63%
44%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.6
-
8CəbrayılCəbrayıl2727
26%
1.0
2334-11
2.1
70%
41%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.3
-
9Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2726
26%
1.0
3652-16
3.3
70%
59%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
10Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan2724
19%
0.9
2744-17
2.6
70%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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