Karvan’s recent draw against Imisli FK and a modest 1-1 scoreline suggest the home side is still finding rhythm, yet the Pythia model rates a home win as the clear favourite, assigning a 64% probability. The model’s confidence stems from Karvan’s home form, where they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.57 conceded against similar opponents, while Şimal’s away record shows a higher average of 1.67 goals scored but a worrying 3.33 conceded. The expected total goals sit at 3.2, with the most likely total being three goals at a 22% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for Karvan, carrying a 10.2% probability. The match result probabilities are 64% for a home win, 21% for a draw, and 15% for an away win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 98.4%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.3%, Under 6.5 at 95.8%, Home +2 handicap at 94.9%, Away under 2.5 goals at 92.6%, Under 5.5 at 90.0%, Home over 0.5 goals at 88.8%, and Home or Draw at 85.5%. Each selection is presented with its exact probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Karvan win
64.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Şimal win
14.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Karvan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.97
0.87
1.80
0.67
2.13
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
2.47
0.57
2.00
0.38
2.88
vs Similar (15)
1.07
1.47
1.12
1.62
1.00
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Şimal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şimal
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
2.17
0.56
1.50
1.21
2.93
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
1.53
0.62
0.88
0.57
2.29
vs Similar (6)
1.00
2.50
0.33
1.67
1.67
3.33
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
3.00
0.60
2.40
2.00
3.75
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.3%
Under 1.5
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.3%
Under 2.5
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.0%
Under 3.5
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.7%
No
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.3%
2-1
9.9%
1-1
9.8%
1-0
8.4%
3-0
7.6%
3-1
7.3%
0-0
5.1%
2-2
4.7%
Karvan goals ↓
Şimal goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
3.1%
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
1
8.4%
9.8%
4.3%
1.4%
0.3%
2
10%
9.9%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
3
7.6%
7.3%
3.5%
1.1%
0.3%
4
4.2%
4.0%
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Karvan goals (down), columns = Şimal goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Karvan is 1.65 points better than Şimal in terms of average points per game (2.47 vs 0.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Karvan is 1.79 goals better than Şimal in terms of goals scored per game (2.69 vs 0.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Karvan is 1.47 goals better than Şimal in terms of goals conceded per game (0.75 vs 2.21).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Karvan or Draw
85.8%
Avg Implied -
65%
21%
14%
covers Karvan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Karvan or Şimal
79.1%
Avg Implied -
65%
21%
14%
covers Karvan + Şimal
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Şimal
35.1%
Avg Implied -
65%
21%
14%
covers Draw + Şimal
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Karvan over/under 0.5
Over
89.0%
Under
11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5
Over
64.8%
Under
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5
Over
38.0%
Under
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 3.5
Over
18.2%
Under
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 0.5
Over
61.6%
Under
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 1.5
Over
24.8%
Under
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 2.5
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 3.5
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Karvan, so a minus line means Karvan give that many goals of a start and Şimal receive them. At -1, Karvan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Karvan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Karvan)
Karvan -2
22.7%
Draw -2
19.8%
Şimal +2
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Karvan)
Karvan -1
42.5%
Draw -1
22.4%
Şimal +1
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Karvan)
Karvan +1
85.8%
Draw +1
9.2%
Şimal -1
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Karvan)
Karvan +2
95.0%
Draw +2
3.7%
Şimal -2
1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Karvan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.47
0.47
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
1.00
0.43
0.57
0.12
1.38
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.53
0.50
0.38
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Şimal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şimal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.87
0.31
0.50
0.29
1.29
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
0.60
0.38
0.25
0.14
1.00
vs Similar (6)
0.17
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.33
vs Weaker (9)
0.44
1.22
0.20
0.80
0.75
1.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Karvan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Karvan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.20
0.40
1.33
0.27
1.07
vs Stronger (15)
0.20
1.47
0.14
1.43
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.93
0.62
1.25
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Şimal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şimal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.30
0.25
1.00
0.93
1.64
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
0.93
0.25
0.62
0.43
1.29
vs Similar (6)
0.83
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.67
2.00
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
1.78
0.40
1.60
1.25
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Karvan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →