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Karvan vs Zaqatala Result & Analysis

Date: 25/12/2023
Time: 10:00
Final 0-2
Karvan
Karvan
Vs
52%
26%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Zaqatala
Zaqatala
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Karvan win✗ Miss
52.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala win✓ Hit
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KarvanKarvan

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D20W22D03L12L51W11D42W20W01LA·İRƏ20/09H·DIF29/09A·ZAQ04/10H·MOI19/10H·QAR25/10A·ARA01/11H·IMI10/11A·ŞAM24/11H·İRƏ06/12A·DIF13/12
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.911.181.671.172.201.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)1.251.121.201.201.331.00
vs Weaker (3)3.671.334.001.003.501.50
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D22D22D12L20W04L11D10W42W12LA·DIF21/09H·MOI28/09H·KAR04/10A·QAR19/10H·ARA25/10A·IMI01/11H·ŞAM09/11A·MIN23/11H·DIF06/12A·MOI13/12
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.501.941.251.211.79
vs Stronger (28)1.611.541.941.251.171.92
vs Similar (2)1.501.00--1.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%315%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.8%
Under 1.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.7%
Under 2.5
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.5%
Under 3.5
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.7%
No
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
2-1
9.8%
1-0
9.6%
2-0
9.3%
0-0
7.3%
1-2
5.9%
3-1
5.6%
3-0
5.4%
Karvan goals ↓
Zaqatala goals →
01234
07.3%5.4%3.4%1.2%0.3%
19.6%12%5.9%2.1%0.5%
29.3%9.8%5.1%1.8%0.5%
35.4%5.6%3.0%1.0%0.3%
42.3%2.4%1.3%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Karvan goals (down), columns = Zaqatala goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Şamaxı FK
2.11
Qaradağ Lökbatan
2.00
MOIK
1.81
Imisli FK
1.74
Karvan
1.63
İrəvan
1.11
Zaqatala
1.04
Mingəçevir
1.00
Difai Ağsu
0.85
Araz Saatlı
0.48
Karvan is 0.59 points better than Zaqatala in terms of average points per game (1.63 vs 1.04).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Şamaxı FK
2.22
MOIK
1.96
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.70
Karvan
1.48
Imisli FK
1.41
İrəvan
1.30
Difai Ağsu
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Araz Saatlı
1.04
Mingəçevir
0.74
Karvan is 0.44 goals better than Zaqatala in terms of goals scored per game (1.48 vs 1.04).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Imisli FK
0.78
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.78
Şamaxı FK
0.81
MOIK
1.04
Karvan
1.26
Zaqatala
1.37
Mingəçevir
1.44
Difai Ağsu
1.59
İrəvan
2.07
Araz Saatlı
2.96
Karvan is 0.11 goals better than Zaqatala in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.37).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KarvanKarvan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D02L02L12L20W10W21W00D00DA·İRƏ20/09H·DIF29/09A·ZAQ04/10H·MOI19/10H·QAR25/10A·ARA01/11H·IMI10/11A·ŞAM24/11H·İRƏ06/12A·DIF13/12
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.640.640.500.670.800.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.500.620.400.800.670.33
vs Weaker (3)1.000.671.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %64% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D20W10W10W01L01L00D01L11DA·DIF21/09H·MOI28/09H·KAR04/10A·QAR19/10H·ARA25/10A·IMI01/11H·ŞAM09/11A·MIN23/11H·DIF06/12A·MOI13/12
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.500.810.620.570.36
vs Stronger (28)0.750.500.810.620.670.33
vs Similar (2)0.000.50--0.000.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Karvan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KarvanKarvan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D20W20W01L00D31W01L21W20W01LA·İRƏ20/09H·DIF29/09A·ZAQ04/10H·MOI19/10H·QAR25/10A·ARA01/11H·IMI10/11A·ŞAM24/11H·İRƏ06/12A·DIF13/12
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.551.170.501.400.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.750.500.800.400.670.67
vs Weaker (3)2.670.673.001.002.500.50
Clean sheet %45% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D11D02L02L10W03L10W10W41W01LA·DIF21/09H·MOI28/09H·KAR04/10A·QAR19/10H·ARA25/10A·IMI01/11H·ŞAM09/11A·MIN23/11H·DIF06/12A·MOI13/12
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.001.120.620.641.43
vs Stronger (28)0.861.041.120.620.501.58
vs Similar (2)1.500.50--1.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Karvan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (18)
€6m
ŞF (15)
€4m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
Karvan and Zaqatala have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (7)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
Karvan and Zaqatala have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŞF (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€2m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
Karvan and Zaqatala have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
KAR wins
1
Draws
0
ZAQ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Karvan vs Zaqatala · H/A from KAR
DateH/AGameScore
04/10/23AZaqatala Vs KAR2-2

KarvanKarvan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/12/23ADifai Ağsu Vs KAR1-0
06/12/23HKAR Vs İrəvan2-0
24/11/23AŞamaxı FK Vs KAR2-4
10/11/23HKAR Vs Imisli FK1-1
01/11/23AAraz Saatlı Vs KAR1-5
25/10/23HKAR Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan1-2
19/10/23HKAR Vs MOIK0-3
04/10/23AZaqatala Vs KAR2-2
29/09/23HKAR Vs Difai Ağsu2-0
20/09/23Aİrəvan Vs KAR0-0

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/12/23AMOIK Vs ZAQ2-1
06/12/23HZAQ Vs Difai Ağsu4-2
23/11/23AMingəçevir Vs ZAQ0-1
09/11/23HZAQ Vs Şamaxı FK1-1
01/11/23AImisli FK Vs ZAQ4-0
25/10/23HZAQ Vs Araz Saatlı2-0
19/10/23AQaradağ Lökbatan Vs ZAQ2-1
04/10/23HZAQ Vs Karvan2-2
28/09/23HZAQ Vs MOIK2-2
21/09/23ADifai Ağsu Vs ZAQ0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Karvan
Karvan
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWL1.64
HomeWLLDW1.67
AwayDDWWL1.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %45%50%40%
AVG goals3.092.833.40
Over 1.5 %82%100%60%
Over 2.5 %55%50%60%
Over 3.5 %36%17%60%
Scored1.911.672.20
Conceded1.181.171.20
BTTS55%50%60%
Clean Sheet27%33%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Zaqatala
Zaqatala
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWL1.46
HomeDDWDW2.00
AwayDLLWL0.89
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %41%55%26%
AVG goals3.283.453.11
Over 1.5 %92%95%89%
Over 2.5 %67%65%68%
Over 3.5 %44%50%37%
Scored1.622.151.05
Conceded1.671.302.05
BTTS67%70%63%
Clean Sheet21%25%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK2757
59%
2.1
6022+38
3.0
74%
48%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1122.20.8
-
2Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan2754
56%
2.0
4621+25
2.5
74%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.8
-
3MOIKMOIK2749
52%
1.8
5328+25
3.0
70%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
4Imisli FKImisli FK2747
48%
1.7
3821+17
2.2
63%
52%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3131.40.8
-
5KarvanKarvan2744
48%
1.6
4034+6
2.7
59%
37%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.3
-
6İrəvanİrəvan2730
33%
1.1
3556-21
3.4
78%
59%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.1
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala2728
22%
1.0
2837-9
2.4
85%
41%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
8MingəçevirMingəçevir2727
26%
1.0
2039-19
2.2
56%
37%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.4
-
9Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2723
19%
0.9
3343-10
2.8
70%
52%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
10Araz SaatlıAraz Saatlı2713
15%
0.5
2880-52
4.0
89%
70%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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