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Karvan vs Zaqatala Prediction & Stats

Date: 16/09/2026
Time: 12:30
Karvan
Karvan
Vs
79%
15%
6%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Zaqatala
Zaqatala
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Karvan’s strong home form, highlighted by a 79 % chance of victory, makes them the clear favourite, especially as Zaqatala struggles away against stronger opposition, conceding 1.4 goals on average. The model predicts a 79 % home win, 15 % draw and 6 % away win, with the most likely result being a 2-0 win for Karvan at 14.6 %. The expected total goals is 3.1, yet the single most probable total is 2 goals, a 23 % chance. Karvan’s home scoring and conceding rates against this tier are solid, while Zaqatala’s away scoring is 1.0 and conceding 1.4. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (99.7 %), Under 7.5 (98.7 %), Home +2 handicap (98.6 %), Away under 2.5 goals (98.0 %), Under 6.5 (96.4 %), Home or Draw (94.2 %), Home +1 handicap (94.2 %) and Home over 0.5 goals (91.7 %).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Karvan win
79.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
15.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala win
5.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KarvanKarvan

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-701L07L41W10W02L03L01L12L11D30WH·ZIR19/03A·QAR06/04H·KAP10/04H·ŞAM18/04A·SAB27/04H·NEF05/05A·TUR10/05H·QAB15/05A·IMI24/05A·BAK03/09← Premyer LiqaBirinci Dasta →
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.970.871.800.672.13
vs Stronger (15)0.472.470.572.000.382.88
vs Similar (15)1.071.471.121.621.001.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-701L00D10W23L12L01L17L03L03L21WA·CƏB13/03A·ŞIM19/03H·DIF02/04A·CƏB08/04A·MOI15/04H·ŞAH22/04A·MIN29/04H·SƏB06/05A·BAK15/05H·SAF22/05
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.731.001.790.811.69
vs Stronger (23)0.911.610.921.830.911.36
vs Similar (3)1.003.332.003.000.503.50
vs Weaker (4)0.751.251.000.000.671.67
Clean sheet %23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%5%013%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.8%
Under 1.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.3%
Under 2.5
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.9%
Under 3.5
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
40.2%
No
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
14.6%
3-0
12.2%
1-0
11.0%
2-1
8.2%
4-0
7.6%
1-1
7.2%
3-1
6.9%
0-0
5.3%
Karvan goals ↓
Zaqatala goals →
01234
05.3%2.0%0.7%0.1%0.0%
111%7.2%1.9%0.3%0.0%
215%8.2%2.3%0.4%0.1%
312%6.9%1.9%0.4%0.1%
47.6%4.3%1.2%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Karvan goals (down), columns = Zaqatala goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Karvan is 1.43 points better than Zaqatala in terms of average points per game (2.47 vs 1.04).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Karvan is 1.69 goals better than Zaqatala in terms of goals scored per game (2.69 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Karvan is 0.88 goals better than Zaqatala in terms of goals conceded per game (0.75 vs 1.63).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Karvan or Draw
94.3%
Avg Implied -
79%
15%
6%
covers Karvan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Karvan or Zaqatala
84.8%
Avg Implied -
79%
15%
6%
covers Karvan + Zaqatala
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zaqatala
20.9%
Avg Implied -
79%
15%
6%
covers Draw + Zaqatala
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Karvan over/under 0.5
Over
91.8%
Under
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5
Over
71.4%
Under
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5
Over
45.8%
Under
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 3.5
Over
24.4%
Under
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5
Over
43.1%
Under
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 3.5
Over
0.3%
Under
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Karvan, so a minus line means Karvan give that many goals of a start and Zaqatala receive them. At -1, Karvan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Karvan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Karvan)
Karvan -2
35.0%
Draw -2
22.8%
Zaqatala +2
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Karvan)
Karvan -1
57.7%
Draw -1
21.4%
Zaqatala +1
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Karvan)
Karvan +1
94.3%
Draw +1
4.3%
Zaqatala -1
1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Karvan)
Karvan +2
98.6%
Draw +2
1.2%
Zaqatala -2
0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KarvanKarvan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D05L20W10W00D01L01L00D10W10WH·ZIR19/03A·QAR06/04H·KAP10/04H·ŞAM18/04A·SAB27/04H·NEF05/05A·TUR10/05H·QAB15/05A·IMI24/05A·BAK03/09← Premyer LiqaBirinci Dasta →
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.770.470.470.401.07
vs Stronger (15)0.271.000.430.570.121.38
vs Similar (15)0.600.530.500.380.710.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D01L12L00D02L02L00D01LA·CƏB13/03A·ŞIM19/03H·DIF02/04A·CƏB08/04A·MOI15/04H·ŞAH22/04A·MIN29/04H·SƏB06/05A·BAK15/05H·SAF22/05
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.700.430.930.250.50
vs Stronger (23)0.300.700.250.920.360.45
vs Similar (3)0.671.332.002.000.001.00
vs Weaker (4)0.250.251.000.000.000.33
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Karvan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KarvanKarvan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L21W00D02L02L00D12L01L20WH·ZIR19/03A·QAR06/04H·KAP10/04H·ŞAM18/04A·SAB27/04H·NEF05/05A·TUR10/05H·QAB15/05A·IMI24/05A·BAK03/09← Premyer LiqaBirinci Dasta →
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.331.200.401.330.271.07
vs Stronger (15)0.201.470.141.430.251.50
vs Similar (15)0.470.930.621.250.290.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L00D10W22D00D01L15L01L03L20WA·CƏB13/03A·ŞIM19/03H·DIF02/04A·CƏB08/04A·MOI15/04H·ŞAH22/04A·MIN29/04H·SƏB06/05A·BAK15/05H·SAF22/05
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.030.570.860.561.19
vs Stronger (23)0.610.910.670.920.550.91
vs Similar (3)0.332.000.001.000.502.50
vs Weaker (4)0.501.000.000.000.671.33
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Karvan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Away under 3.5 goals99.7%-------
Under 7.598.7%-------
Home +2 handicap98.6%-------
Away under 2.5 goals98.0%-------
Under 6.596.3%-------
Home or Draw94.3%-------
Home +1 handicap94.3%-------
Home over 0.5 goals91.8%-------
Under 5.590.9%-------
Away under 1.5 goals89.0%-------
Home or Away84.8%-------
Over 1.581.8%-------
Under 4.580.3%-------
Home win79.1%-------
Home under 3.5 goals75.6%-------
Home over 1.5 goals71.4%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (4)
€1m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
Karvan and Zaqatala have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Karvan and Zaqatala have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (1)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (3)
€1m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Karvan and Zaqatala have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
1
KAR wins
3
Draws
2
ZAQ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Karvan vs Zaqatala · H/A from KAR
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/25AZaqatala Vs KAR3-0
07/03/25HKAR Vs Zaqatala3-2
13/12/24AZaqatala Vs KAR2-2
05/04/24AZaqatala Vs KAR1-1
25/12/23HKAR Vs Zaqatala0-2
04/10/23AZaqatala Vs KAR2-2

KarvanKarvan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/26ABaku Sportinq Vs KAR0-3
24/05/26AImisli FK Vs KAR1-1
15/05/26HKAR Vs Qabala1-2
10/05/26ATuran Vs KAR1-0
05/05/26HKAR Vs Neftchi Baku0-3
27/04/26ASabah FA Vs KAR2-0
18/04/26HKAR Vs Şamaxı FK1-0
10/04/26HKAR Vs Kapaz4-1
06/04/26AQarabag Vs KAR7-0
19/03/26HKAR Vs Zira0-1

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/05/26HZAQ Vs Safa Baku2-1
15/05/26ABaku Sportinq Vs ZAQ3-0
06/05/26HZAQ Vs Səbail0-3
29/04/26AMingəçevir Vs ZAQ7-1
22/04/26HZAQ Vs Şahdağ0-1
15/04/26AMOIK Vs ZAQ2-1
08/04/26ACəbrayıl Vs ZAQ3-2
02/04/26HZAQ Vs Difai Ağsu1-0
19/03/26AŞimal Vs ZAQ0-0
13/03/26ACəbrayıl Vs ZAQ1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Karvan
Karvan
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDW0.80
HomeLWWLL0.96
AwayLLLDW0.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%24%12%
AVG goals2.802.722.88
Over 1.5 %88%92%84%
Over 2.5 %48%48%48%
Over 3.5 %20%20%20%
Scored1.001.120.88
Conceded1.801.602.00
BTTS54%56%52%
Clean Sheet10%12%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Zaqatala
Zaqatala
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW1.02
HomeLWLLW1.40
AwayDLLLL0.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%40%12%
AVG goals2.582.842.32
Over 1.5 %62%72%52%
Over 2.5 %50%56%44%
Over 3.5 %28%28%28%
Scored1.041.320.76
Conceded1.541.521.56
BTTS46%52%40%
Clean Sheet24%24%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KarvanKarvan13
100%
3.0
30+3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0003.00.0
-
2ŞahdağŞahdağ13
100%
3.0
10+1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.0
-
3SəbailSəbail11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.0
-
4Xankəndi FKXankəndi FK11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
5MingəçevirMingəçevir00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
6ŞimalŞimal00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
8CəbrayılCəbrayıl00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
9MOIKMOIK10
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
10Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq10
0%
0.0
03-3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.03.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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