Karviná’s 5-game winning streak, highlighted by a 3-0 triumph over Viktoria Žižkov, gives the model a clear edge at home, reflected in a 68 % chance of a home win. The Czech-Republic FNL side averages 1.33 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded against weaker opponents, while Hanácká, playing away against a stronger side, has a higher concession rate of 1.89 and scores 1.22. The expected total is 3.0 goals, yet the most likely total is 2 with a 23 % probability, and the single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for Karviná, carrying a 12.2 % chance. The model picks a home win as the favoured result. The probabilities for a home win, a draw and an away win are 68 %, 20 % and 11 % respectively. Suggested selections include Away under 3.5 goals at 99.1 %, Under 7.5 at 98.9 %, Under 6.5 at 96.8 %, Home +2 handicap at 96.5 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 95.4 %, Under 5.5 at 91.8 %, Home over 0.5 goals at 88.8 % and Home or Draw at 88.7 %. Each selection is listed with its exact probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Karviná win
68.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hanácká win
11.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Karviná
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.50
1.43
1.57
1.75
1.44
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.75
1.33
1.67
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (19)
1.47
1.63
1.33
1.89
1.60
1.40
vs Weaker (7)
2.29
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.40
1.40
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Hanácká) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hanácká
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.27
0.93
0.93
1.27
1.60
vs Stronger (16)
1.25
1.44
1.14
1.00
1.33
1.78
vs Similar (14)
0.93
1.07
0.75
0.88
1.17
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Karviná) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.7%
Under 1.5
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.2%
Under 2.5
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.8%
Under 3.5
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.2%
No
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.2%
1-0
10.3%
1-1
9.6%
2-1
9.6%
3-0
8.9%
3-1
7.0%
0-0
6.0%
4-0
4.9%
Karviná goals ↓
Hanácká goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
3.1%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
1
10%
9.6%
3.4%
0.9%
0.2%
2
12%
9.6%
3.8%
1.0%
0.2%
3
8.9%
7.0%
2.8%
0.7%
0.1%
4
4.9%
3.9%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Karviná goals (down), columns = Hanácká goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ústí nad Labem
2.33
Karviná
2.00
Slavia Praha II
2.00
Příbram
2.00
Táborsko
1.83
Dukla Praha
1.67
Kladno
1.33
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.33
Baník Ostrava II
1.17
Vysočina Jihlava
1.17
Opava
1.00
Vlašim
1.00
Prostějov
0.83
Hanácká
0.67
Třinec
0.67
Viktoria Žižkov
0.50
Karviná is 1.33 points better than Hanácká in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Slavia Praha II
2.67
Karviná
2.00
Dukla Praha
1.83
Baník Ostrava II
1.83
Ústí nad Labem
1.83
Příbram
1.83
Vlašim
1.67
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.50
Táborsko
1.33
Opava
1.33
Prostějov
1.33
Kladno
1.33
Vysočina Jihlava
1.17
Třinec
1.00
Hanácká
0.50
Viktoria Žižkov
0.50
Karviná is 1.50 goals better than Hanácká in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 0.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Táborsko
0.67
Ústí nad Labem
0.83
Vysočina Jihlava
1.00
Karviná
1.17
Kladno
1.17
Baník Ostrava II
1.33
Příbram
1.33
Dukla Praha
1.50
Prostějov
1.50
Vlašim
1.50
Opava
1.67
Slavia Praha II
1.67
Třinec
1.67
Arsenal Česká Lípa
2.00
Hanácká
2.17
Viktoria Žižkov
2.50
Karviná is 1.00 goals better than Hanácká in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 2.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Karviná or Draw
88.9%
Avg Implied -
69%
20%
11%
covers Karviná + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Karviná or Hanácká
79.8%
Avg Implied -
69%
20%
11%
covers Karviná + Hanácká
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hanácká
31.3%
Avg Implied -
69%
20%
11%
covers Draw + Hanácká
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Karviná over/under 0.5
Over
88.9%
Under
11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karviná over/under 1.5
Over
64.4%
Under
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karviná over/under 2.5
Over
37.6%
Under
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karviná over/under 3.5
Over
18.0%
Under
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hanácká over/under 0.5
Over
54.4%
Under
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hanácká over/under 1.5
Over
18.6%
Under
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hanácká over/under 2.5
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hanácká over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Karviná, so a minus line means Karviná give that many goals of a start and Hanácká receive them. At -1, Karviná must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Karviná win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Karviná)
Karviná -2
24.7%
Draw -2
21.0%
Hanácká +2
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Karviná)
Karviná -1
45.6%
Draw -1
23.1%
Hanácká +1
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Karviná)
Karviná +1
88.9%
Draw +1
7.7%
Hanácká -1
3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Karviná)
Karviná +2
96.6%
Draw +2
2.7%
Hanácká -2
0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Karviná
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.57
0.71
0.88
0.62
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.68
0.56
0.89
0.70
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.57
0.00
0.00
1.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Hanácká) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hanácká
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.63
0.13
0.47
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (16)
0.25
0.69
0.29
0.43
0.22
0.89
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.57
0.00
0.50
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Karviná) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Karviná over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karviná over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karviná over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hanácká over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hanácká over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hanácká over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Karviná
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.83
0.86
0.86
0.88
0.81
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.95
0.78
1.00
0.90
0.90
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.43
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Hanácká) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hanácká
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.63
0.80
0.47
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (16)
1.00
0.75
0.86
0.57
1.11
0.89
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.50
0.75
0.38
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Karviná) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Karviná over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karviná over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karviná over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hanácká over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hanácká over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hanácká over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Karviná · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dávid Krčík33%
Abdallah Gning26%
Rok Štorman19%
Kahuan18%
Ebrima Singhateh14%
Denny Samko12%
Emmanuel Ayaosi12%
Pavel Kačor12%
Aboubacar Traore12%
Samuel Šigut11%
Lucky Ezeh11%
Albert Labík8%
Alexandr Bužek8%
Jan Fiala7%
Sebastian Boháč5%
Ousmane Conde4%
Kristián Vallo0%
Jiři Fleišman0%
Filip Vecheta0%
Vladimir Neuman0%
Jakub Křišťan0%
Filip Prebsl0%
Sahmkou Camara0%
Nino Milić0%
Yevgeniy Skyba0%
David Planka0%
Jakub Lapes0%
Yahaya Danjuma Lawali0%
Jan Chytrý0%
Faycal Konate0%
Vít Valosek0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Yevgeniy Skyba33%
Filip Prebsl27%
Vladimir Neuman25%
Pavel Kačor25%
Yahaya Danjuma Lawali17%
Aboubacar Traore16%
Emmanuel Ayaosi16%
Ebrima Singhateh14%
Jan Fiala13%
Denny Samko12%
Rok Štorman11%
Sebastian Boháč11%
Jiři Fleišman10%
Nino Milić10%
Albert Labík8%
Jakub Lapes8%
Dávid Krčík6%
Abdallah Gning5%
Jakub Křišťan5%
Ousmane Conde4%
Lucky Ezeh4%
Kristián Vallo0%
Filip Vecheta0%
Samuel Šigut0%
Sahmkou Camara0%
David Planka0%
Alexandr Bužek0%
Jan Chytrý0%
Kahuan0%
Faycal Konate0%
Vít Valosek0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Albert Labík17%
Emmanuel Ayaosi16%
Ebrima Singhateh14%
Dávid Krčík11%
Samuel Šigut11%
Abdallah Gning11%
Alexandr Bužek8%
Lucky Ezeh7%
Jan Fiala7%
Denny Samko6%
Pavel Kačor6%
Jan Chytrý5%
Rok Štorman4%
Sahmkou Camara3%
Kristián Vallo0%
Jiři Fleišman0%
Filip Vecheta0%
Vladimir Neuman0%
Jakub Křišťan0%
Filip Prebsl0%
Nino Milić0%
Sebastian Boháč0%
Yevgeniy Skyba0%
David Planka0%
Jakub Lapes0%
Yahaya Danjuma Lawali0%
Aboubacar Traore0%
Ousmane Conde0%
Kahuan0%
Faycal Konate0%
Vít Valosek0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ebrima Singhateh50%
Abdallah Gning21%
Denny Samko16%
Emmanuel Ayaosi9%
Jan Fiala7%
Pavel Kačor6%
Ousmane Conde4%
Rok Štorman4%
Lucky Ezeh4%
Jiři Fleišman3%
Kristián Vallo0%
Filip Vecheta0%
Vladimir Neuman0%
Jakub Křišťan0%
Filip Prebsl0%
Dávid Krčík0%
Samuel Šigut0%
Sahmkou Camara0%
Nino Milić0%
Sebastian Boháč0%
Albert Labík0%
Yevgeniy Skyba0%
David Planka0%
Jakub Lapes0%
Yahaya Danjuma Lawali0%
Alexandr Bužek0%
Aboubacar Traore0%
Jan Chytrý0%
Kahuan0%
Faycal Konate0%
Vít Valosek0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (26)
€11m
KAR (24)
€7m
DP (29)
€7m
VLA (22)
€4m
BOI (17)
€3m
TÁB (23)
€3m
PRO (25)
€3m
VJ (18)
€3m
VŽ (22)
€3m
ÚNL (22)
€3m
OPA (21)
€3m
HAN (24)
€2m
PŘÍ (21)
€2m
KLA (11)
€2m
AČL (9)
€1m
TŘI (3)
€0m
Karviná's squad is €5m more valuable than Hanácká's (€7m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (11)
€4m
DP (13)
€3m
SPI (8)
€3m
VLA (8)
€2m
ÚNL (8)
€1m
BOI (6)
€1m
OPA (7)
€1m
TÁB (7)
€1m
VJ (4)
€1m
HAN (7)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
PRO (7)
€1m
VŽ (5)
€1m
AČL (3)
€0m
KLA (4)
€0m
TŘI (0)
€0m
Karviná's attack is €3m more valuable than Hanácká's (€4m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (5)
€2m
DP (6)
€1m
VŽ (9)
€1m
VJ (6)
€1m
VLA (5)
€1m
KAR (4)
€1m
PRO (7)
€1m
TÁB (6)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
ÚNL (6)
€1m
HAN (7)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
BOI (3)
€1m
KLA (2)
€1m
AČL (2)
€0m
TŘI (0)
€0m
Karviná and Hanácká have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (13)
€6m
KAR (9)
€2m
DP (10)
€2m
BOI (8)
€2m
TÁB (10)
€1m
VLA (9)
€1m
PRO (11)
€1m
VJ (8)
€1m
VŽ (8)
€1m
HAN (10)
€1m
OPA (9)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
KLA (5)
€1m
ÚNL (8)
€1m
AČL (4)
€0m
TŘI (3)
€0m
Karviná's defence is €1m more valuable than Hanácká's (€2m vs €1m).
Czech-Republic: FNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Czech-Republic: FNL stats & trends →
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Ústí nad Labem
Slavia Praha II
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Táborsko
Dukla Praha
Kladno
Arsenal Česká Lípa
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Prostějov
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Viktoria Žižkov